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[lastpost] => 2776904 比特币长期持有者获利了结 短期买盘势力减少-转 1762498319 小作文
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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' D/ q8 G3 X& e' z6 ]$ ~% n) c但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。2 d& }" v5 b0 P5 W9 B. i# O
3 q' }" g" U: qUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？/ P' Z4 ]1 W. v: r
R5 q5 D; G N: S- \9 j开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
" I* ?; }1 X. J4 h1 T% l t( V2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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, @3 V% e6 ?$ l- u来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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9 p0 n- q9 f8 P& T7 v5 p尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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+ B- j2 `5 G r2 U: u, G! g! C事情变得有趣了- O% a( X' q" H! B
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。, t1 i4 s# Q; K
3 W$ @1 M) J" m6 C/ C9 r4 K( T8 K来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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# T6 l" x! t5 }3 e, J+ RBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。+ \( m4 D4 @4 t/ s& r2 @& W5 P9 w
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。 e6 ]3 f8 i7 \8 t
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。, C6 J/ g5 q1 {- Y K0 p7 }
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
/ c0 P$ y/ J+ M6 ?8 L经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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' c9 D! f& l9 |; J* F来源：TradingView
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。. P8 o! s$ R9 w5 k+ ?8 B" V. p$ P9 v
6 a ^% A+ o" e: P8 s9 K然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。6 Q4 _6 x+ t+ T5 D9 L. G+ m! @
. ^, m' Y3 ~. w% D7 X" |4 g9 u: t- W突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。$ c( [; I7 @4 Y5 v
2 j7 M3 g. u! k7 B |
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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