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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
3 b; \- v* I7 m& y. r% \5 G( i& [% ^) q+ {1 r
: \$ v5 t; F! P3 W9 i4 A& ]西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?* \3 F" S6 ]* E3 F# l B+ s
- N+ H3 b |+ F# [# {
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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_8 v, H# X; b' w2 I, P% g) f9 e) y3 ]( `
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?8 t0 g+ I' v: Z& w F$ X
+ Z- Y, |1 v' q
2 O6 H8 c0 P. R; B7 n9 F盈利可能性
* y& h; j( U) m& D3 Y7 r$ a0 S& J) m% m h: m% {* w
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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' i$ _2 q, V5 X, S7 V/ Y增值
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9 p6 {! n$ q; h许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?( m% h- K* K/ c' {1 L2 i9 h6 O8 W
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么; H0 c0 q+ F3 i
% w& F) p* k5 O% ~2 A
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
( d; ]2 N% y) R/ p# b- x7 \! x60%的机会你会一无所有* y, I& s. y ]9 l7 \* S' C2 h
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
# P2 v6 [/ |. u2 F4 v" _由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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5 {% v9 K6 ~, T) E3 |增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。! F3 G: q7 f7 u9 F
% {* a0 C! Q6 Y9 q, {公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)5 ^# [% [* v1 s. t( v/ f
7 Z$ K% [; I; L" S" u9 dA=博彩资金
`8 n \" _; d& M; ~! |P=获胜机会4 _; W b* c9 }( Q2 h! ?& B
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。, Z8 ]& b6 E7 O/ { U! M
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。$ |% Q% l& H! L% ^* v
% o% B, g4 L4 Y1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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; d* V( P/ H! ~6 e4 JA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
) }/ l" o( z$ u0 T! w. P$ `& ^. z
A=0- p8 A5 L6 f5 m* K
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢7 g" `/ j# x! K% ?
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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+ r4 u* M) ?6 EA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
. I4 {9 \ H5 o+ v+ N1 r2 \; \6 \* l- T
A=0.1
) ]! p3 |- |/ U- }
7 D8 S( P: k' Y8 z; {& N/ }, u结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)7 d- h# S' b/ B6 U3 X/ O
, Z7 r" v6 l4 kA= -0.2
+ [6 S& n; O8 o) c8 T4 C" M. t, }4 R8 W0 w4 L
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好% ^3 u7 R, L0 ~
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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