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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛  @. [  S6 d0 c

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( s6 y* ^8 b4 P& q! T6 [全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔; W" `6 G7 N0 J! ]. ?

: R$ U/ i! L( I5 _3 d" w6 }* W三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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" {) V1 ~3 E6 s) W. B, S偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。* s: [( ?! B2 F
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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5 F8 i* P$ z( p' f然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，8 k" |# s2 Y6 O* p. d7 q2 }2 D% ^
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱: t/ ]& W+ N% K7 C: S

' q/ l; ~1 q8 Y- X$ t当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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' ^# \4 b& X& ~. U8 H8 b亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，6 B2 U8 v/ J  Y; o1 r1 I& ~
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，9 O9 c1 h. q! B& o8 A

" {2 p% H5 s# H: w但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。( J( F, D  S' B7 E3 N+ o6 B
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，& z! J: ?( D* N! P8 E) j

) w# Q3 |6 u% o  z8 a这比买国债存银行合算。4 M+ ]  A* a+ e' p
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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$ K' e2 ?( k0 B5 n' m几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。1 j+ ?5 T4 O4 V

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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。, w4 H# Z4 c  L

/ H; Q$ f1 y" k! J  u  n3 j1 x3 x放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，, b5 b1 ?% k: F7 l$ i0 p; O4 c
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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