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小分3种情况:
- T) v* m4 M5 q9 [- ]- v m% K3 B, r: }; H
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。" h4 t7 ^6 o; R/ Z1 Q* o* t' |
' E2 p( E( S* b% } n* {- H6 l2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
/ I; ] M8 \, j; v) e8 D0 p. x2 w
# k( Z" f% {; { x! e$ ?$ ?3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
6 p; }+ h; @2 ]
8 Q7 x2 B7 g- @2张牌8或9点的情况有:
6 b7 w% c1 h( a- y: L, g, U. r* P+ G/ F) l; P, n1 V o
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10! j& e" B+ y7 G" { L6 u& U* E
4 `" V. |5 l8 Y6 l, U8 v7 T1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/4152 U. G! F0 S8 E2 y
4 C0 O B% t" E: I
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/4156 p& {/ c5 b" I
: s7 {2 f! r4 S8 i. f; l$ N8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415- S k' O* v% E/ G
{7 [$ I3 ^$ w X# y4 Q5 i: U
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
5 j i. A; _6 t" N/ A0 W4 C4 F# k5 Z6 Q. h% q
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
$ |. n% E4 |" J5 _% S0 f2 h; C x9 y
( x1 N8 x$ ?$ f+ f' U+ p3 A那么我们可以得出
) {0 @! H5 Z$ E' e$ R
7 L% G& B0 _/ [5 A7 Q) q8 P1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
2 b4 T j: l6 G* [5 m* C! ^+ L- o$ b2 K
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 2 A2 j4 m" E! j! e0 H# _
! c; @; a6 A0 D2 Z! y. B7 j# i3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.0358854919 M. r6 F- h' q, Q0 B7 j# I8 y; L
/ ?% d$ @* q9 _+ r) u' l7 r所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
. E% R9 A, G3 V0 B& n* Q2 D7 X g- z( g& Y. [) s$ J- H
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
; X3 n) i' F" J5 o5 O |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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