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小分3种情况:
2 O+ v% _6 D" L! C+ k0 c
7 T: q/ ?9 H+ _& T: X- e7 B3 U1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
- F+ z3 v( I/ W5 x0 i
, \, W9 A7 w: P) ]; N2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
+ @0 Z* U f' H( v' Y+ D
; H( s' f% q% d3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。( E( x% j/ d/ ]4 {+ o4 F6 ~
: ]6 Y9 N$ X3 q8 t
2张牌8或9点的情况有:
7 R3 q; y5 w3 n: J; [- w! y# s7 O
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+101 C, X# C( ~, {& M; b; N/ V! V
& E5 {3 Q3 S' F' [2 w
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
- H9 w% ?' U8 W& Z
9 ]2 I% W8 m( X4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
% ]6 Q9 G& K y( W$ L+ t0 t9 z6 @ K% Q. t, n5 e
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
! X: G% ~ I8 F% Z, e' {5 Z+ C& k* L, Q3 L3 U/ q3 P7 r- p
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。2 \; h) C4 O& Y6 W# S/ q* `
6 H2 F5 l: x& n* Z4 l2 r通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
6 w5 F& q) W# z3 b! _/ J3 @. A5 e5 S i5 {9 a
那么我们可以得出! R1 J; G% W4 q* l& _* x
$ }! |7 Y! I1 Q+ E/ ?8 l" Y7 {8 [
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662 D" D% T/ e' t9 p% V) v" k; a
( n2 _+ G* K+ c, G7 A, f) u8 e( J2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 2 N# l3 T6 ^4 q+ q3 j8 F+ d5 P2 Y8 I
! h7 @- y1 R, h& g3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
8 F1 s- j8 Y0 w, t4 m% v
7 J& b( J; z7 l* O) g+ w o9 Z" |/ p所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
! ~8 J# h9 Z/ i# {' D- _( w4 R0 Q
3 Y; r' ?0 Z" A) s" F9 @百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677% U5 M; N; D+ l# S4 T
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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