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小分3种情况:& n8 U, u. ^# w: h: k/ r
6 N3 p: T# j' P6 o/ B* O. [/ {" g
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
. S6 |3 |, i) D6 B" A) i) Y5 `3 X) e, D; L2 s' W4 m! U
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
: n, f- n/ o8 A9 b3 |
& ~- \( m) g2 h# `3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
3 f( M* ~" |; d
- u) i J" ]9 W4 M3 Z$ P( Q# r2张牌8或9点的情况有:% O2 h! { [* L$ q5 b0 F- A% v. d5 W8 f
, D, s. @# y1 D0 o3 i% T
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
5 j. s/ u0 N/ L6 S5 n0 a+ C$ y' E0 S4 X; o/ Y* M
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415! a8 B# \- y O7 B
2 c2 d1 {2 K- r% V
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/4158 F' ]3 ]6 w* V9 k, B. h$ x2 Q
! n3 R/ c. F/ ]3 R8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/4158 `- Y$ N* e) o9 m4 R; B7 H
9 R7 `/ I5 ~: q由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
# u8 _: E# g" e }: g
$ z) j3 S: T0 G, j4 O7 o# p k通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。5 O7 a, d; E% l+ L1 g8 b3 j8 y' Q
: ?' S9 W; w. a& R
那么我们可以得出1 Y: P$ C7 n% g; P& {5 x; Z- z
# m0 L5 S. |4 t0 t8 y$ q1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
. D- n9 N( t+ o4 f% n, v9 m0 T# D1 B; n# [! t3 p
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 $ v% q* r# T# N$ N( d m; D
( v. e5 ^7 K5 V2 F3 Y3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
. c D C% S( p3 z$ w
$ r( j8 `5 h w所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
! i! L2 e2 G' _$ T2 ?' l6 Y( F- K! Q1 i# D, r7 n# g# z; K" S" q
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
8 G5 I2 E6 {6 O T |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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