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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。& L- s' U8 n6 k: z
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？/ N: m7 [2 K# Q5 r
O4 U" C# ^* _9 m7 J开局艰难，但历史看好牛市7 Q9 U0 Y2 _% [) g' c
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。% c8 x* U9 P) v& Q, l
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来源：Alphractal- _3 H! w% d& Y4 B& L4 z) e3 F- i
% I6 \% A+ z1 `4 [15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。6 P# C+ x4 l! L. I$ j7 W6 K7 j
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事情变得有趣了) p" {& ^1 R, W1 ?6 x$ J
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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$ z2 w9 P# O6 z+ G- e& s来源：X
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: E1 }. l+ ~- T& I根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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0 t% _0 r2 L* f6 _" IBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。3 c8 C# p2 m+ R1 B3 t
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。) T- x( h. T* t' z: O/ \- P; W2 |$ x
$ g% u- V0 u" j# N, Y" Q3 I空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力8 `9 E2 s# i# {9 L( }* J
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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3 V: e7 X+ p+ m来源：TradingView
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, X" O: O5 a" r1 n, M日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。& Q: e( ~' S( _8 `1 `: Y
2 ^3 q% i$ y: r0 w3 E突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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