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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。9 S0 y* _9 I6 |2 a. e
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率/ _, m+ `! M, o3 ^. [- q3 ^
2 x7 s/ Z% h" l$ f' N, y/ g以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
6 |+ Z7 ] F- b9 N8 |) i4 }' t# S" N9 U
7 \; d* ^* B. B皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?, }# J* _0 u9 ^8 J2 N" k$ P. H7 x4 m5 p
; q: g8 x! S. U. O答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)2 {7 ?, y" D+ }) S
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' m5 u; D. o0 r5 |9 w8 S以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
, z! c9 j5 w1 l& A6 J) j& X! T6 C) n& G. ?( m& x8 Q
}& h n: f. c1 B- Q" w盈利可能性' E9 _* F1 D- {( G/ O: E: L
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。# ^8 L9 ~5 P2 e. [
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?0 q" \: K/ L& }% @6 z# U0 H
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
% _" `1 s, G' W4 c0 l+ u
1 |0 ~0 ~" q% r8 h3 o2 E) P40%的机会你会收到150元的利润# E( M2 K# |( I+ Z2 p
60%的机会你会一无所有
) H) ]# y% \* G( S5 G9 E预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 3 l9 F; R: k# [& |
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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0 r) w. O; L; u/ K7 n+ k基于增值的投注. q( V) u7 G- C3 P ]
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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5 x$ T# D. S1 {$ ^' B# i公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金: b: x6 R) }# l, ~1 G& D) u+ q) D6 u
P=获胜机会
5 T* x$ [% u' m% X- s1 qO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)$ Z! ?( a* d- e+ @. F5 M& s
0 p. L8 X. A" r首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。# P! ?! h0 ^0 b4 ^
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。 a8 ~ B& |3 y3 |! ?
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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+ |& t' U; @. v" N( D/ e" H: [A=07 c" C) u/ s, L& i( h" `- a0 B: F
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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" W' m, l& z0 k* s w2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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. T( w7 ?6 o7 J2 P6 wA=0.14 T, U4 U3 p5 u
F& ?+ t& @2 }8 U. u, B- q结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2). f+ ?+ u5 T. w
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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, C3 ^% A$ |$ { gA= -0.2
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1 f$ H- l$ q# j8 D/ M结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好* u7 @9 v$ Q8 K: |- [
) y5 O2 ]8 b& J6 w/ S3 B! `第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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