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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。' C; e$ q* G# x- H5 Z8 }6 }
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# b5 @6 o- y/ a; ? J9 Y
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:) T/ q9 d. G# w% A" j. p% m
8 l$ s ]2 p; J0 ^% G+ l4 V皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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" e0 D" k" X( E2 L8 n+ I答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)4 ?* v! O e+ H$ g( P9 E
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" z8 G% b6 _% F: H$ c0 m以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?; N) {+ @' J& m! A* K
" U! N6 s! A) x! `+ h3 g9 A! \3 X s+ j. \
盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。9 b, ^: a( [6 u S
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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2 p+ G, c1 [1 `2 y0 A$ U你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?8 |" P2 ^! ~$ F9 D! d- G% }1 p4 l
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 ' b( y# B; \8 _1 L, v( ]$ H! n
$ g: B' m/ M8 Y7 O正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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" S. r+ Q( V8 `4 l7 U/ k40%的机会你会收到150元的利润& N5 M. T8 n5 T
60%的机会你会一无所有
, C- o! x3 I! l2 I6 H& ]* ]预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
. p" M# d" @3 q/ Y8 `由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
, I) ~, N' l+ o" [
5 Y& B9 {% [2 l. g. ?增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)8 t8 b* z0 C# B7 W) m. n+ W
8 w/ n$ \+ p+ C; O
A=博彩资金
$ Z( [* M) D1 P3 `1 Q7 @P=获胜机会
9 @' I5 e; Q6 cO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
1 l- J+ ^# T6 I, [/ n {/ {4 v5 N" _3 V$ r6 h7 S+ z1 ]: G% K" c
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。4 i# N% L; L4 ^6 a0 X
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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- {9 S6 O1 d& ]) WA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5); [2 e, E6 i% C2 z
! v* j! }9 z/ L' [, N$ h' aA=00 R/ @) z& o( E* I
2 x+ n$ T+ ?5 P. x结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢+ q* S/ F. A+ G4 |" v, k) Q) e
" P" C. N0 M& ~$ i" @9 B- U2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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9 U0 _9 `; c* y! Y1 [A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)4 J7 [, D) p5 V1 g9 I
! h+ D3 c# d. YA=0.11 S& P% G2 p6 h3 L# J
% u0 Z# G4 ?* Q1 o5 m0 M7 i' C
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去; U% E3 A: Q3 t( d* O: l# C
7 m9 Y* m: a5 s# U- Z3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2). [; d8 V: ]4 | y( p
, L7 D" F% ~" G, ?* ^% kA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)& _" S( t. D2 |& Z
0 L( \4 Q5 ?) w! A) GA= -0.2 3 B# T5 X; Y# y# e" s( t' T
2 }! e D! N$ ^4 I
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好3 l0 [9 _: }. X& T; W
& H7 i8 ?; n' O, a( j* c4 r第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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