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大小球盘本质上就是与全场入球总数相关的盘口,计算它的依据就是进球数的概率。% ` q- Z6 V7 J* M) t2 v
我们先引入下列符号:3 v, o3 r3 g0 w6 X9 \+ r. H
Pn(n=0;1;……;x)表示在一场比赛中可能出现的各个进球数的概率。
5 \: Q% k5 b5 V! S/ ] C3 ]即:P0=全场进0球的概率;P1=全场进1球的概率;……。( w8 E5 B7 a9 q: Q
那么 ∑Pn=P0+P1+P2+……+Px=100%。" ]0 ]4 {" O4 Z3 u8 ~4 R- d5 D
Bo表示大球的投注总数,D表示投注大球的回报总数额,O(Over)表示大球的赔率。* |+ y6 L1 b; F' m3 {$ k
Bu表示小球的投注总数,X表示投注小球的回报总数额,U(Under) 表示小球的赔率。
6 W1 v# X4 k* R2 K* b& W
, ?- K4 U& r' U" h" O在一场比赛中,我们以G表示大小球的盘口(G为任意数);K表示全场入球总数的结果。4 `" h# J E5 d; m
在任意盘口G下,全场比赛会出现如下3个结果:
7 N5 z f7 R9 A9 Q8 K( r+ ~( J1:K>G 即出现我们通常所说的大球。
4 y$ Q( b1 j$ q9 X+ g8 Q9 j. F2:K=G 即出现我们通常所说的走盘。
6 [1 o6 U. K+ h& i8 ]3:K<G 即出现我们通常所说的小球。9 {0 ^ I1 D% r) P2 S
! N" u, w3 q5 C M
那么在此盘口下投注大球的回报总数额为:! }4 O9 u# {5 G
D1:(K>G)={Bo* O 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。" d1 r& N$ v* u1 B
D2:(K=G)={Bo 即走盘退回本金。
5 x4 |% }# c; J' |4 C, ED3:(K<G)={0 即输盘失去本金。
z. i8 M0 \% X# W1 t. y4 n
- S2 x& c5 c4 w F同理在此盘口下投注小球的回报总数额为:
* C- Z8 k9 S' h e4 ?# d: s9 QX1:(K>G)={0 即输盘失去本金。
5 E! ^: I9 U9 d: lX2:(K=G)={Bu 即走盘退回本金。: T1 S& {/ k7 y# r
X3:(K<G)={Bu*U 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。5 S) }6 K, W* M" v q; `7 N
3 X* D* a7 ~: N5 S
下面分别描述大小球盘为2.5球;2.5/3球;3球;3/3.5球时的大小球盘赔率计算方法,其余盘口可以由此类推。& y" R0 ^7 e" c" g# u
" M* D! b1 g& N5 \5 h( u1:大小球盘为2.5球(G=2.5). d8 G7 l% q/ D0 m Y: h, b9 u3 t; j
) F% V z& j1 `( T% n; m, E' ]在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:0 _8 x, ^( v# `4 p( z2 \4 s. s: q! ]
K=0 D0=0
$ E: x% T, Z6 k( B1 s' i( iK=1 D1=0 + k2 S$ B1 z8 U) s$ T5 W8 }
K=2 D2=0) L1 X5 A( F, \+ X8 m% x9 r
K=3;4;....x D3+= {Bo* O
' I' [1 z) _, N( D! J
: j$ a7 l. f' P, y+ C投注大球的期望回报总数为:∑D=Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2)=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)
7 w* q4 A" k* [0 K在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。% M! t& E8 M& {* W& d( ^1 A
∑D=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=Bo
( y' Q# U1 Q( o O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=1. t2 _. _) P: s' l# }4 W4 c/ H
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=1/(1-P0-P1-P2)) @( }! a+ h2 ?8 x9 [" n
或者表述为 O=1/∑Pn----------(这里n=3;4;……x)8 q7 n* ~( ]% K% b% {
. t7 b4 d0 d ^8 G# P& q9 q/ C
在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:, Q9 ^ T3 J# w0 R" x' r
K=0 X0=Bu*U
" \( N5 O) r' y9 V: \$ _K=1 X1=Bu*U . R: x8 z1 ?6 {% w
K=2 X2=Bu*U ) h, r4 u/ T" K( U R/ a3 ^ Y
K=3;4;....x X3+=0
& C z8 u) t {" N' J) Q- B g4 `- S/ _; n5 Y" b
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U
1 z- j6 d8 y/ y- i5 o, J V: i在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。( O) K G5 _* B( C
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U=Bu) Q5 W+ C$ A. J% n4 Z& Q8 p. z5 U
U*(P0+P1+P2)=19 H" x/ l0 x9 ]) f# W3 d6 j [# r
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=1/(P0+P1+P2)+ a) g) G' ~& k9 ?
: h6 x0 E. t; x' S/ _2 p9 q5 v2:大小球盘为3球(G=3)
$ @. K% H7 L. n: e5 { K$ Z* Q
2 P+ j+ H8 N/ ~( I在大小球盘为3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
' `; o0 X% V1 q$ H1 d* LK=0 D0=0 ; ^, R3 K( H3 s+ k
K=1 D1=0
; }* M5 O9 F. w: M' x) zK=2 D2=0
1 T8 \6 N7 O+ y" i( g2 n# XK=3; D3= Bo
6 T7 e/ L# B7 T5 d' j: zK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O 5 c5 o' m4 G# k2 _. t' p; v
! X- u* W; |9 Z8 v+ A e+ p
投注大球的期望回报总数为:& b& q4 p4 t) q! c9 Y0 Z
∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)= P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3). U" o5 n& c, \2 t
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
r. G. o" v. e- e0 p' P ∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
* e$ y; k4 r! B7 F$ Q& p P3+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
7 q' ?/ D# X2 L1 Q. u4 j8 s 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
7 f( l. O* p4 I) w' o6 s 或者表述为 O=(1-P3)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)
5 h* i* x4 O7 L: L
6 C/ Q9 }# Y4 a" ~在大小球盘为3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:% v3 ?% G3 P3 H' ^' b/ j' Q
K=0 X0=Bu*U 5 L" c5 ]$ Q7 F$ Y
K=1 X1=Bu*U
( C' \/ H& P+ u7 WK=2 X2=Bu*U - @. q7 `1 C; @5 v2 [# z/ `, C) Y
K=3 X3= Bu6 y3 q/ r7 J( A+ H! e- B- y* z
J=4;5;....x X4+=0' ]2 b" u5 a, e% e! A7 ] `* D: ?
+ q% V& t' B& w, m投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu) r2 k7 ?; i6 e2 C1 D
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。- C" c) v. c- J% M3 M+ V
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu =Bu* g' |9 d) K( L; _+ ^3 Z0 q
U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3=1% `. i# P0 D! I8 m0 }+ V# E
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3)/(P0+P1+P2)$ j0 B7 m$ |2 P, z
4 R+ X; ~0 k: a' L3:大小球盘为2.5/3球(G=2.5/3)
I }! c6 b1 Q3 r& a8 `; Z3 F/ S
在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
& O# ]1 Q# l, ^4 {, G) s' c F. mK=0 D0=0 y# M5 x4 h8 H* @, B
K=1 D1=0
1 ?; h5 [4 E+ W U6 o- O# LK=2 D2=03 N! J7 `' S/ S, m3 C
K=3; D3= Bo/2+ O*Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘赢盘)
$ [/ [' x( S3 ]: Y9 o$ bK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O 4 {6 [9 Q! l( S: o
% [1 H) `5 }6 Q5 i& }' }% K% n
投注大球的期望回报总数为:
$ @- C+ W! U. N9 m9 V6 I" w ∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O*Bo/2+Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)
: s# z9 q4 k" S5 J' z = P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)8 [, A4 J% Z% Z
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
$ W4 k i& q, Z- Z/ c% e/ e2 m ∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo/ B) M. r* b( \* D3 y$ D; W" O
P3/2+ O* P3/2+O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=12 q' K0 S6 u! k P) k
O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3+ P3/2)=1- P3/2
. J( I- p( ~; A- i+ L$ m 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3/2)
( j3 Y! j) i6 [5 x. b. p
2 F+ C" z0 {/ W9 q0 z- |1 V在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
6 y+ g' t+ [( H6 c/ k4 E v. ]K=0 X0=Bu*U
+ @* v" Q% ~' C1 B/ R9 ^- VK=1 X1=Bu*U
/ k% `/ |& H( _: tK=2 X2=Bu*U 0 [. X$ q) {' L* j) L5 ]1 E
K=3 X3= Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘输盘)
$ S- Z7 R% z# Y# k# u2 Q- YJ=4;5;....x X4+=08 M: ?: r* Q' M- H
1 n* o5 X% {* d6 \ ~3 p
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2
% a6 p8 f) y1 y$ S" X( f在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。4 W5 ^- F! M E
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2 =Bu
# W! y" g( c5 c5 z U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3/2=1 Q8 K; g) X- z7 E* o
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2)/ u ?0 q7 r) q
8 ~8 U! p0 s( i9 G4:大小球盘为3/3.5球(G=3/3.5)( W: i. A" C/ {8 B
& |$ C3 \* @) d) e0 }2 o7 g
在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:/ n- N. {/ p1 ?! }4 |
K=0 D0=0
2 t( x& W! F" Z: m* VK=1 D1=0
8 y, C7 }5 ~3 Q/ a' {7 [& e. b }K=2 D2=0
* k& j W" Y. _' c! {, GK=3; D3= Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘输盘)
8 t; R7 D! U) `3 H- aK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O 1 @& j5 B# b: W& D5 ]
7 {" {4 X: Q' R# h; t
投注大球的期望回报总数为:# g) }4 n; C0 c
∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)
6 b9 N e9 w/ }% F = P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
1 c* m. `4 Y7 B7 V( A, Y7 U在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。; ~3 B0 U: s( q& X
∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
3 d" T' B6 f& e P3/2+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
( y, u: v; `& w, f( x* y O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1- P3/2
# B( L. ^ u( t# i- u4 ]# l 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
, o+ y( D% x$ Z0 `: d. u' T 或者表述为 O=(1-P3/2)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)( L7 o4 D6 A- X& }: B2 E
- Y3 ` Y/ k( ?4 S( E1 }8 I4 `
在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
5 J6 k; |( b: w3 MK=0 X0=Bu*U ' d5 c! B# ] a$ q% u
K=1 X1=Bu*U 6 F) ^7 O9 q8 S
K=2 X2=Bu*U " d4 ^* L. r' M, o
K=3 X3= Bu/2+U* Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘赢盘), b9 o" c( {3 A- `
J=4;5;....x X4+=0
7 a/ d' P8 |; I5 \2 \, O
. o$ W' C- ]( w0 G( ^投注小球的期望回报总数为:& G- j/ }8 Z. F. ^. b* E
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2
d2 v& c; G+ l& |1 ^在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。" W$ L5 G( F0 n+ x
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2 =Bu( q6 G3 \5 z. L: _! Y
U*(P0+P1+P2+ P3/2)+P3/2=1
0 p8 w r! F7 p3 ~ 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2+P3/2)
% ^, x7 t2 q4 R1 D; d7 r5 f0 {
) C0 c- D5 q: J4 t6 c }
! d9 Z2 T: H4 F; Z! N% _* Y一场足球比赛就是以主,客进球数最终是多少来体现其结果的.9 X7 Z2 x; s4 s
大部分博项的赔率都可以通过进球概率这个基本数据实现互相转换!
7 r/ f q" \+ ]# o2 J8 _* ]& I
7 ~% k5 J/ e2 |5 Z$ _P0 P1 P2 P3 P41可以由统计函数生成,也可以由开盘赔率计算得出,比如用波胆赔率计算。(这种方法计算出的Pn值有一定的偏差) |
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