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小分3种情况:( B, l2 t5 x9 X. U8 l8 C
6 A" `, k# N6 n% N# f1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
5 q' a1 r$ }1 O6 W! \+ X0 t: Z5 z" `8 |' d$ X( m% }* {6 j; m- F
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
2 V$ w3 U! Z$ W3 _2 C; L: e6 \9 x2 J% W! q; I3 E0 W1 I1 E' y
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。4 S0 H' y* Q# v9 \2 B5 d4 p
6 l0 m$ o! L6 E- X7 K6 S2张牌8或9点的情况有:
6 x2 ^2 J7 w9 V+ |/ d4 Z; q) b
) G) t k- E& V) Y7 I1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+101 y4 Q' R5 \/ R7 u
! H% X1 a, }( J' |6 ?1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/4154 |) {- c; V6 y N9 N
% G8 b- q; k1 A7 C4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/4155 V$ R" P! I- K8 I% \$ G' [* y
8 B$ Z3 }0 M4 o! f9 P3 q
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
; g0 V, C9 D8 f# t; b5 X5 Q& S4 L+ _3 r6 r& h p
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
" E M- S) V2 V+ E
& }. z$ U0 t0 _7 Z通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
4 @9 ^4 }2 G/ m! ?( B S+ P. l2 ~9 E1 a* c
那么我们可以得出- n4 k& Z5 F" Z7 ~& Z) p
3 I6 O5 _: p5 r4 E* C
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
' j+ y' U% K5 o( F7 g1 O& v4 d
# Y+ O1 x4 w, ^2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 8 k3 ~1 c; O, P8 a+ v
- z% I- T9 r' i$ X( F+ f3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.0358854916 U- q8 Z( k! b
' A* W/ w2 X- O6 ?
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
! M1 C8 d8 p' W; ~1 S. F& Q1 ?; E c2 a3 N7 m! n9 S% Y1 ]
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
6 }$ W) Y9 ^+ ^+ W( g |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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