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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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/ g7 }; k u. }7 \# O西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率$ P. X; q8 F6 a o3 B
5 r# z1 C7 R" i' o
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:5 W" U4 V) ^5 {
8 b% P. \9 }1 `/ h5 ?皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ! [0 `$ `/ f* }% _
8 `7 j) j$ x- h6 @) L% {/ j9 f
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)! [0 T2 B- h, z8 w* j+ a6 q- R
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, l, s# V# D! k1 g4 f以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
$ x& c2 b2 X9 v
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: R( K% f s! ?- k) ]+ J7 W) A7 k盈利可能性" `) y3 a- |7 x* j( V: T1 p8 M1 v
: Q; r- S" f! h. P2 ^, P K- l
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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" h& [- m" s. Q6 c增值
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: x1 H) m. u& g# F许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。8 D5 {; O) f5 _5 O5 c2 u6 y* Z0 D! g2 q
* r9 M7 ?# }7 h6 Q3 m# f你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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; i! ?) L4 r& t$ @) {! {a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
8 u. O$ ~4 K& L1 X
9 d% p3 j6 F1 c: U正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
1 U% @5 i+ n, S6 {+ l/ M$ x$ X
; Y! t9 w U; H4 C40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
5 b3 f9 c: [) o* n# l8 y8 {60%的机会你会一无所有
* f8 u2 } z, y) a/ h; | k预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
/ X- J" u% ?* A; x9 W5 X, D+ F' J/ s由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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1 t$ o0 ~3 q+ ?7 {8 a* h基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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( R' j% ]0 U2 F5 ~3 T: s# ?. H公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金8 B$ e- Z: s$ S- { j, c
P=获胜机会
* p7 Q7 c: E7 w, r' TO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)+ L- F/ G& G0 p8 g
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。9 |; z6 N4 C7 W- k' K8 E
0 f' f# [+ U1 e) A, `- c好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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, j' z ^. b9 O; [% T9 h. y2 p* l+ B1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)! P' x9 c3 ]( b' C; y2 X
- R. w7 X/ {- W2 A. Y: B9 `$ ]A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)7 N2 N( ]. M6 d2 P0 S3 F
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A=0$ u. k& T8 l/ t) U: p4 }' {1 m
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢* V, S5 E& Y9 \2 \+ J
" n7 P) k' H$ i3 D' Q6 |2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)) a' k' u* M. W) H* N4 O7 p' b- _; {
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2) N- N. Z$ C+ s6 U ?3 G" I
- Y* b5 ]" t, j. M/ u- H9 IA=0.1
5 J4 Y/ G6 W8 H" h4 W: {% ]
& B# G* _7 r4 K7 t: {! o结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
9 @3 _- ` n6 G- F4 ?/ X% h! Z- ]; N/ ~9 O5 X B
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)1 \: c/ ^0 [4 y& f. g8 b
0 M6 i8 f8 I" }' g* ?9 x4 p
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)" h; o0 m5 ^3 l7 i; S. g2 }
4 _( r( G* X% ]8 Q4 ^0 tA= -0.2
9 [0 r3 f9 Y) ^% {& d3 G1 s4 E7 k3 o+ T- }
! b3 ~! n) H9 s1 _结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
& w- O( {5 r _' u' ~ u! V2 Y$ f: S/ n% j' t3 ]
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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