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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
8 q, g. m4 e1 Y" W9 E1 ]9 e% o( W. i! Z& K& I L3 k+ h0 h( h
+ @" P6 U$ T5 B: Q6 o4 K( Y/ U西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
D) V c- J. [3 w+ D3 Q# D# y( ]
' @) O, C. M) ?( R以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:; F" u2 E3 E7 p' t( B! d- |
; \& q1 d- M2 k+ \# ]$ a9 L+ {
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 2 ~/ G+ j; f) M: I0 t/ W
5 D2 U! d: f+ z
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?' V$ a+ X! Q- C2 o7 I6 A2 F' U
+ \: d! ~5 M- R1 z9 j' w
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)% i: ^5 ^1 b( O! Q5 o
; B: F8 H5 j; {7 `; w3 p) g3 f
3 y7 T0 n' j v+ i
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?1 D5 e( X$ q* g3 n
. P/ O, a8 a! X) V" r2 N, {" m
( [9 _3 s/ r% ` A4 l盈利可能性
& _3 `2 G# e, _- x2 Y0 X% W o8 `3 S: H7 q( a8 P
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
& E. g3 g5 Z2 ]
! R: S7 @ H) |! K, h增值, Z# w% ` M: j s% j, z. A8 r
1 D$ [8 f/ i7 C& {/ F许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
& ^4 B! w# o) ?7 [% c3 J" ?( ^0 i$ J# X2 O7 j
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?% B- d7 C, |- p& p! B0 y
$ i9 P2 v; G: m4 ia) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 * { E- J$ w* @; A- z
* e+ {+ t2 ]7 C# ~, h3 d. t6 K3 M% {正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么: _) D9 q6 o/ M8 _
O% C. Y: h9 Y$ P5 U
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
; }/ a9 ]! k7 j60%的机会你会一无所有
$ \; z- F ^- H预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 + W3 U+ `+ X* A# X
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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9 G* Z! Z% u- |+ e! I1 u* T增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
+ Y& s! e6 A- \* i K# B* C' [6 D9 w3 `
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
1 Q; d* k P8 ~- M' R
( }+ l* O$ Z& j. o公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)0 t. h. U/ `) g5 f" m3 Q
& z% {9 H9 W* R
A=博彩资金
9 Q+ P3 N) f1 o/ e1 |P=获胜机会& G' E0 a; P- ^+ E" m& S
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)) Y8 r4 ]! s: o3 s5 q/ J
( f& m6 C, i# \5 I$ ^6 D0 z首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。/ i, w: x3 [! P; u
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
# q6 E' f; _, Z; K- y' s* u/ w+ x }6 Z
1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)9 {! v" a% j, q& \0 W5 t
! w4 i1 _8 [* ]1 G+ T! u& |0 uA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)5 Z/ X4 m3 q. P0 |
: ?' \3 \0 E, m8 t
A=0
( [$ x6 k( U, M# Z2 t- _
! y; _8 q5 K/ C& k- L" J/ {结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢! E3 U7 {1 Y& Y/ S* ?6 r6 Y2 f
7 {3 ?. y: H! M! F) k# @2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)4 i: {7 i( K! L1 s$ G
8 w" L1 u! q) {A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)! t2 _% }2 i7 @) i6 Q r9 H6 \
0 ]( R; Z0 k. vA=0.1
' G- k: c- f" g8 y+ I
& @8 P& y: }. K& A/ M, t结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
8 m: S# ], l. H' r3 }* K; b( i: e- m4 H+ e2 @/ \& ^
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
* Z3 E+ M; q% _, X& a- d6 S, x. ] R5 J) \: v/ y: `1 p" W- i
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
1 V/ U; A! J9 r) r5 ?" L. T* L6 `* C# d+ W6 P
A= -0.2
! o, W/ T+ `* \
, E5 C5 r3 W4 o: a5 a& D结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
5 X9 Q& b G/ x1 ?- C, X0 U- K
& @, p$ ?) Z7 [. G; T! p! }. F( _第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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