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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。; q0 e, C1 b8 {# M8 D3 O
5 \( I; H) k# j( @
+ t) d. i5 C# b0 t$ ^6 b西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
5 W8 }5 `8 `: p; Z( S% O
! m) @+ Y) y/ N1 S h( g6 O以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
9 L" z" _9 ]& J, X+ F# D: |! {( ^; e+ X5 z) u% V' V4 H2 i. {1 J
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% / J4 `5 {2 ?2 U" w, g: k5 E" s' m
; s; @& u: p& r0 Y# {, M很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?; m- I$ k0 e/ ~) K: U; V5 M
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!), N1 E9 B5 o+ L2 l! }( x: k
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?, d! X) Y9 E( n
7 U, ]# w) l) G3 ?) L/ D1 S# Y" i7 \
盈利可能性+ V! N3 [4 F' j& v; I" U
6 G; A9 b" i. K J$ }3 `
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。8 Z! P7 Z0 g; X; X; f* A1 q
6 l( h" u( U0 C) o增值; L$ Q2 _1 Q: C
6 `5 H$ v4 P' a" \1 ?
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。7 B* K$ O& e" s( S( W4 P. c
* ]$ a/ _3 Y2 \( |* k" z
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?1 m$ g6 j- N3 t
7 t: f7 [: e, |$ {4 S4 s
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 J0 F: @: B/ A% H2 `
2 r6 z; e E/ d6 T% Z正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
" L/ I* L. b" t2 e9 k
7 E4 u7 c* }. |8 `; I) D' V0 _40%的机会你会收到150元的利润- { V' Y' x2 u! I6 D. P# c
60%的机会你会一无所有7 L6 h( i, S# }* e% B5 H
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
0 ?9 E% A' `. E3 K; x由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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. S, {3 C" n) O增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
) |1 U1 r, ^+ m+ H' `
+ w; _ H3 d( w+ D基于增值的投注+ L' F0 L8 y$ D) r0 Y* [
' m& W! l$ O: B& k4 }4 e凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。2 c% i) g: M/ A- Y7 t
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
7 ]/ P4 @! F3 {4 O5 a2 r* I! x! R) U+ v/ K
A=博彩资金
, k- x" }' |# K/ J; c: zP=获胜机会
' ]# W) n! d# V: }O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
1 W+ r8 O( I v+ ^' f% S- G
, x$ @7 C' C6 y首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。! z' `( y7 P2 P7 }) d
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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) g: C4 E# b2 Y& ~5 B. n/ {( h1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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3 r ^* ~) J8 b- V* eA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
; x; }0 }1 Q/ i z- u3 H( V3 j
1 J1 j5 M# K% }结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢 v2 M5 o% H7 r8 R
7 z2 J) Z/ l) r# O6 e
2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
4 i4 p! `0 Z3 R) ^; }$ s4 a# i2 f: p1 d, H9 m7 h
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)* N8 z3 X, F# m3 j- p" c2 e! k( l3 Q
- Z {- a5 Z( |5 C/ X0 K
A=0.1
# z5 C. b. ^3 N1 ?5 |4 _2 m6 j. D4 t( @* T; p2 o9 E3 a* _
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去& E' H& Y0 R+ F$ f% @
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
5 h) f. k8 Q2 i# K3 X4 e- f: |1 }* ?+ a/ o8 X, w4 h# t' G8 B5 @+ r
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)( Y' U$ E1 F. C6 e
, u" j8 k7 [6 ^" Q' i; oA= -0.2
! B0 J4 C( T, v( Y% ?2 n
+ b* J2 F! G X, R8 ~结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
8 ~6 p+ b4 b7 d1 @; O1 `* J( m8 w4 T9 r0 r9 U; q
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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