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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


/ Q: S4 i; L- H" b5 i7 }6 X賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類7 M/ G% G0 P  X6 E  F
10A23456789
9 i# ^5 P( ~9 b% F$ M-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159
, X# N9 I- P: F, W-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
- R9 p8 G' C1 @% c-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
, x- p& [+ R9 c8 g% C! L-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.1200 |( a; ^. o+ |8 d) g
-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.1087 t5 g% {& F/ @* G& `
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096; b* N# w! A0 C+ }0 W
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085! J" J& m5 o% W) I9 L
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
( [. ]* ^! h" o( w6 b4 j0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064) N9 h  W, h3 G% a! ~
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
) D; a/ l9 ^6 Q( [: l, q. h; R8 I9 j2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
: x* p) E, X) Q& B+ n7 i3 o# T3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036: _7 a+ ~) ~. H
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
6 f( T" z9 |  F0 g/ X, T5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
! T+ R% |; M3 k5 D7 }3 [6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
) y  L9 w$ u7 H5 |* l7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
: I1 R! r2 a* z5 R* [8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001! P* Q/ W6 \5 [
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
; |7 r- q0 U' @: a$ s* u4 h10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.9926 s6 \6 f% ^9 n3 g; i) C/ v/ ?
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988# |* F2 S" M- [5 Z' M, D* Z
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
7 v1 [+ c8 S4 O+ i5 W13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
) ]) B1 ~0 M. Y4 Q3 k14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.9802 P7 X) z  ~- H; a/ Y# p- f; U2 y
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.9796 u0 w2 Q; b/ c$ V
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979
3 c' b- w3 T5 \! d4 H+ ?& M$ L! v17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979. U. t# l  I6 Z& T- a8 `
18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979
! D" v6 [" C2 R19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
' p! }* Z6 K  t! ?7 u2 S20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
" z9 E8 w- Q, S4 |5 L% q21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986, w) m  g9 |# v5 V3 l
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
( N0 D& ^5 x7 c) F# Y6 A23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
# e+ E8 `8 J9 O2 z. ~  a24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.9970 N+ m9 j; S6 T* H* Y
25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
# |4 Y0 u  h6 r" z" n) e

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


3 `. f) s$ y7 S5 W表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類% M( p+ }/ N) [2 R. e* a) h5 Z
10A23456789  t, p+ |, \* ?5 Z
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.0958 R. }5 g5 d* [7 b1 j7 b
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082. ~) y. h! m1 e
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.0690 m6 s2 `4 O' n( k: B
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056
% T; r- F- M0 X- A6 K- r8 z-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044
5 {2 ~" P0 I3 G3 M# m3 U-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.0321 J8 I9 B+ ~* U# q% X, F
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021/ C! ~: g- g- u: H6 s& x
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.0106 U- ^3 n4 _) |" k  f* U
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
) K6 P; B8 c6 H/ s+ g, \, y1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
! M! T1 E) T- C2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
! r0 ]) Q5 O' Z7 V/ q" `4 d, E  O; ~3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.0282 B% L" F7 l% V8 J5 O
4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036" z/ {" ^6 |# f- F! Z
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
7 P1 t; @/ ?( E6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
9 A( \; P0 }0 v7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.0579 o3 C. U1 W0 W  B& U
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063
5 a! K& N8 U6 Z9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068
1 c! B+ ~4 ]8 P  s) i# p10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
0 q+ E2 K/ N4 Z' Q11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
5 @$ K1 O8 v" ]1 i12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.0790 i7 p2 _: {- n; a
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082  N& J: x3 ?1 x/ ~& {
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084' A7 \) J+ n1 }  ~* [# V2 \4 R
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
" h7 |8 f. f1 L& t( p16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
) ]3 e5 l/ K7 C+ L& q17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
5 R6 u* H% h6 h2 J' m18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
7 M; d' T( p- v' u# L19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
0 C* n! U8 l' K% b# q6 v20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081- E( ^' @  M0 l2 v6 a5 g
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
1 B. L$ Q/ w3 a- {# y22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
; r  }  ^7 i/ [; B23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071& ^5 M+ q7 [6 k
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067# n+ N  m" d& q3 E7 R& O5 F  C; h: P) `
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062& x0 e) a' t( h7 Q0 j9 c# h- K

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

+ j0 y) A2 G/ Z' Q- w
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
; ~+ R) s. |& I. p3 R5 n10A23456789# V( c  N+ A; d7 w& ]
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
3 F9 ^$ x* u8 r+ Q" f. P4 T-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.1371 ~6 Q9 i3 P% b8 u  B/ q
-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
8 l4 B' ]$ }( Y. y-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166# }4 y% _" z- ?1 L* |* m: Y$ U
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
3 ]2 _& u  o+ P1 I. U: t$ t-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193& w/ H9 E3 ]4 F  E! W, U
-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
1 U5 K' P0 m  H, Z-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217
- Q# ~' y3 q( x: G0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228( J( A* y2 [  k3 E1 h( w8 G. Q( K
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
! Q6 @$ M. ]% j6 o, I4 W$ y; [2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249) w( j# _1 H: \5 s- P
3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.2585 ?' Z7 Z0 M/ I! c0 m1 ^
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
, Z9 Y% W. [6 e/ u% O5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.2744 ~# t, h( z3 K1 a* z
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281" N  w! s6 Z$ k' V7 S
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287( k  S5 |7 l' d& }% X+ r7 N
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
1 Q" u  R( C; ^$ r- I9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298* y5 E, l# @/ c
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
0 [7 @) Q: o9 X9 H) l, J11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
7 s7 g( N9 [; C& u3 R12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
+ k  \, ^! D) h* K: T+ k3 V$ R13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.3103 X7 Z/ V3 Y, Q0 `, D
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
/ q9 M3 ~2 {, ^/ b8 u! E' R15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
  U0 A$ p& L2 u5 f2 d: C, w# v16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311& b- k" \/ C  Y- A
17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310% B9 [" P6 G  F& `1 X( v
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308, _; R2 x( D+ N) X6 Q
19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305" a. X& f, n9 [" X5 B! }0 I
20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301# {( ]- q) M, q: w+ x
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297: J3 _5 o6 ~5 q% N) m5 d' S" l
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292* r' A% h9 ]+ }7 |8 K; L/ T$ v
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.2868 @& V# c, d$ S; t' }
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279, j* M* z5 I3 F8 o
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272( Z( H4 x" M3 l- N8 S" z: S& \

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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