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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

9 s- R7 Y9 l/ T
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類3 @  P- M/ V( K: w3 s
10A234567897 J* U2 L% W) g7 \- B" S
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.1597 f2 A9 r8 K+ j
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
8 m) O# [" T; e# I-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133: z9 K% @" ~$ X6 z" h! f. d$ V
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120$ k0 Z; v( v% F' `# r1 w. r
-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108, d& b1 p( G/ n7 [7 T
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
2 i- S2 k& U, S) J2 E-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
* h' T+ Z7 L/ T9 F8 b/ J-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.0744 E, T) P# z9 L1 D; I8 {
0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.0641 u8 N* Q) @4 X- b- o1 B
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
0 o9 y3 O* G4 b5 Z; O2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045  l% U4 B$ W  _% [
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
, e5 Q; n) J- f" o# N4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
; U0 {2 Y' L  J2 r4 q) r0 v5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
5 c) R& S- N/ ~; X2 Y* ?6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
& s- Q2 v, i8 c+ P6 d0 r2 P7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
/ Y! X2 h: G' x& {" L! B8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001$ ?6 W% b3 T$ B% Y  ~3 Z% f6 B
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
$ ]) k/ m4 _% \4 F# S; X/ U10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992
/ o) u6 o* M2 z5 d  V$ ?11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
0 Z. o3 u& x  s12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
+ ]% x( O8 I9 c9 ]- e# {! R; ^13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
8 g4 ^; |: j' o3 y7 _14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980
3 |9 `0 Q! C% W& i- y: o15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979" \6 i! b2 x7 n4 |0 ^
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.9792 D# R! N) D. L# a+ I
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
/ n5 U0 k- U( o18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979
& q( p' w+ ]3 N8 w0 e2 j3 _# u4 k19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
: Q& W$ H8 a6 B9 J20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
- K, E; O7 o& N0 m21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986
* j) u  ?  m5 u; q22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989- I3 m! i# |* h4 K& \! o0 w
23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993; l1 i) E, t, S2 z
24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997- `& }# Z. M# m, d' ~/ Q
25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
( [2 F  j7 R- O& p! \

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


7 v5 `2 Z9 g- Q8 l表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
" O. @: s% f: K2 I/ m10A23456789
- W/ f, N6 X7 x& |' R- |. ~7 Y-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
  [: e7 x5 z/ i  }: L) M4 M-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082
) B7 V* F/ [& I3 C9 e+ ^; Z-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069
5 K. X( O3 d/ u( x- ~-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056' f' F. ~9 J0 u3 O
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044+ `, s% G; c7 M6 Q  e
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
9 K! N* f! j) o, o% G& X-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021% k. c% r" X+ u) E0 v, T
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
3 E; K) P+ U% j0 V4 e3 U6 @! i00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
! y* N+ f2 `9 s3 {) Q5 `; L1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
6 C; ~8 R) l  T  d2 i- B  n2 C2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.0192 E2 I0 s# f: z5 V9 U
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.0281 F( ], |5 l% _* t
4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036  x5 u+ e% T5 L
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
+ \2 E, m. n5 }; I  L6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051+ Y- d1 _6 t, W" I
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057
* W4 c! m' Z& U% R8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.0632 c( ^% G- W& f$ s6 j! q- W1 ]
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068
1 r/ I; E  H2 F# c* b9 I( ?$ Q3 [3 w& V3 Y10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
/ F" b! t1 J$ Z0 M$ F; s2 g11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076' M3 x1 S0 p8 {* G
12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
- a; m7 }: O1 P  s13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
! l0 ?5 J7 P2 i- P0 n1 F) o14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
. p6 v) Z* n# P6 i2 }- [15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
; X$ d5 M6 X- M) Y4 b: P& I3 d# o16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
3 {! \, y2 U% M4 y+ t17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
- M  o/ b; Y: L% b6 V, I; X+ ]18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
' z$ b5 B/ D6 r$ d  u19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083" W  z6 S$ ~0 N$ C! \
20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
+ \, b2 Z8 T" x21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
# D$ ~2 V2 u6 U& U8 F, _7 b22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075* y  V% z- ?. V8 @3 F9 m- c) G
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.0712 z- N+ G6 O7 c0 g# G/ m
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
: f. e2 v, u  `6 c: j* @25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
6 ]0 e* u6 G& x$ j1 i

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

* e/ p7 g5 ~* p6 v" G7 Q
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類' i; J+ P0 D% }& {
10A23456789
9 G4 L; ?% U6 o, I! @- X: j; z1 `-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122" v) c7 M% G" t- V3 H
-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137' G+ {) h; N  ^$ M& h5 i
-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152* K, n/ \8 i# a4 P& W3 c
-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166
. l* _0 O9 ~. ]' i/ q  P-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
- Y- L( ]1 S5 T7 R-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
( e% ~/ D2 o" c-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
9 J2 c0 B/ s6 g0 |' u/ Q. k1 @-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217
# L& V0 i* B6 k- @5 h& K6 `0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.2280 E6 X2 z8 B, u& ?" G1 W
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.2399 E- z: M$ q! q0 ?+ R$ Z) F5 I: _
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
" Q, l2 J: b7 y$ ~) h$ v3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258
; a# V  X! Y% R4 k. l) `1 I2 X4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
: n3 `! y5 A' r+ `5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.2743 h( |2 z3 R8 h3 N8 G9 R8 ^
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281! _8 O% o( n+ H" ^8 R: Y, [
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
8 Y8 S1 d. q3 p4 g& D( A% O8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
: N/ A) }3 b7 j9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
9 C* b3 E# ]% N6 g8 I5 d3 J10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
, ?2 d0 }; c. w+ i1 h11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.3067 E$ ?7 I3 l$ s) k6 v' K# C
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308/ B  }9 u  V9 a( Y2 u
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310( K9 ]& I: N# o% s- t# C
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
3 L+ Q3 c2 E" D) i$ ~, S15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
) g. V2 c, P: h; P6 D" I1 X, Y16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.3111 J+ y6 i/ A+ T) e% c& ~
17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
4 M" H) f% X4 x' j& |: p18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308# }. e2 d' {# k7 y6 Q" e/ `
19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
* o# b, K# G0 m2 D0 f20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
1 X% x8 ~+ j/ r21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.2977 H1 g4 @) u$ h0 _) `( K
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.2920 x+ j. D6 f& F8 n6 T) a
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286+ n- {* ]1 g7 O: _
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.2792 y! ~% I8 Y: b7 b" L& f
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272
/ N7 O* u6 O% Q2 N

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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