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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
* S) g* Q) @- z, R4 x* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
1 F9 ?1 {2 P( C, F; z; U$ I: ]凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
, |4 [2 |$ w8 E
+ Y( Y8 L q# JG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)" U8 H+ a/ w- y* O. m6 A
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
( S: ]$ k) \& v2 v# `
1 A5 _3 h n- V& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
9 _) P6 o% l1 N- p% Y/ y$ B既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 8 s0 L1 W: L8 l# J) p$ k3 w: f
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s; Y- F5 ]3 B6 x6 L/ S8 Q
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `) E) f+ s3 L& e; e
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
1 }" T) [; e7 C6 M% r( W(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n! z4 \; O; }$ T# t: `
$ s( _7 E/ [, _# Q% H
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 " B/ h/ U T8 @6 c. c- G
; h5 {0 u0 w* V) E. h/ ^(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t$ I: }8 r6 h' x5 l3 G
( _9 {0 H6 G) b- V+ b; g& w
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 * ^4 [, }0 w: H( y: ~/ Y4 M) e V6 P
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
( j! s: z t9 F/ M; F/ n我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
% G3 ~( d: c; R: n" s5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c/ k" z0 ]' }: Y% N8 F7 E
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
9 u7 a" P, c8 p* r) M$ Y7 Z8 d+ Z
' ^, _9 z7 K% y: M: W! L# jS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 3 x* D3 Y% s7 j/ O. ?/ f* w
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
! w* b4 {# M7 Q2 \6 uS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
: T2 `2 D! {3 t$ h& ]) r% h9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j% S3 t: G( e7 G q6 I$ [
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \1 j% [% k( @! e' X+ S! W4 v/ {
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
7 U" B% n: _" q/ e7 Q, Y* w1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 ! y) \0 P' P' h
6 b _( Y f* ~" g, Y: `+ f1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l' k: K* _' X Q/ `/ {) ]
& S2 g* |4 J. D3 s K3 T1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q1 u4 W0 H, S# w3 E2 K
3 @ ~9 i6 R# F5 v2 u! X1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 N, Q3 Z! n7 i+ F V$ t
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r) ^9 b9 x8 @. @( ~* @
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
! a& \7 N4 B/ S: z' I' w5 g" R6 \+ Q ?$ [
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j# _1 `. z; i7 [
0 r: V8 R9 C$ d/ l, e+ G
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
2 I' p! j# k( ?' U: X( U" B, z/ h
1 h% v7 R9 {# l' sS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s3 V7 {4 p, @! k- |( t
; m' V% T, u, P% O
' Z. K8 a2 o* j. q1 z% k) ]* \S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
* S% j2 }; ^4 S/ F0 W, B6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
3 m/ J8 W3 s c( [2 T! m0 yS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 p$ @' A# c$ a/ _
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~; _* b; l) Z5 x( T" N
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o" K! r' u! Z" I
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \1 Y! _! `4 r9 P" n4 m
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
( d- G* _4 I3 N8 u/ C5 o3 Q& T) q( ], k9 L T& t
3 I4 Z0 x/ z8 ]# M* ]3 E2 V* }6 \B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 2 x7 o$ h+ q" y2 r
' C D$ E! v3 h5 S& cF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 " ~' M5 }9 `9 p9 y* z0 s
/ Z$ ^6 f. m" g/ W5 d! C5 S
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ? k1 _: V" K [( f7 |
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {9 F) i6 d; \" G8 b9 ^
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M- @3 J+ y) Z, C- w% o9 w1 D
+ D$ n) P# X# M
9 I ^' L1 S& ?+ L3 cG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 6 e! Q: B+ j& y" B/ k' _: I3 t
9 u' R9 d6 y7 Z) j5 |
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]4 ~3 z2 K. S5 ~9 u( h# Z
9 K3 E) U" d( h, i- M3 I' s2 T当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
! I# W1 j, l, K! y6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
. @9 {- l% x. _: H通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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