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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
0 _( r) ^) a0 a0 \* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
9 k- C* m( u h3 q" b凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k5 Q2 {& I; {! _. R) D0 F
* q0 S) n/ o; }* p2 \
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
9 ^* d {; [( |4 k& E什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [5 M8 q: @. U) n2 X, B
& ?7 L5 U0 c& q' |) Z! e4 I& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h6 v6 j: S2 Y0 X1 O8 Z, L
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ ) `, d5 g w' {% J& T
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s8 x' |1 A S' T/ E
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
( O# u% m+ \# p* |; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
8 b# {8 K! l6 N2 p' ?1 H5 y(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
2 l! ?" C' t/ Q P4 J4 T; V! |7 g! S( e! m2 v' n7 l
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
3 B) ]8 W, ]1 W- a/ |- F: \2 I' f" g# K& }9 v
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t4 n7 `/ f" X1 c1 ]
, G' B& N) w6 Y(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 2 O( z/ C- _* v
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
; ]* N }1 i: {+ j0 k" @+ h我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 # \4 K, m& `8 U% Q; J/ X
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
4 M* e; [) h. L# I! c# OS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
- ]7 p0 C, A+ r d: b2 ~! U4 ~/ [
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
% d- Z9 B8 j, W5 B% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s/ ^6 j; n ?2 P' l9 z$ w
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 * Z4 }6 c; f8 t% z, _
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
* A% O+ ]& G- l G; \. F8 Q5 y& lS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \4 C% a/ o. P' n
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
7 y9 j- a% @& N$ g; e1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 & W. I! u( W0 ~# K7 b7 L
4 N$ a6 k D) m5 G1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l3 r3 Z+ y7 d- c2 P
4 K+ Z6 v5 c; e% J$ L5 y. d
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q: c8 J/ b0 l9 U+ r) s
2 Z7 J* F; t" n0 a" s( _1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
u, N3 G0 _: T: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r8 b) Z" T$ n0 S
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
! Q2 x% C( B( a j! g5 h/ I* l& u3 U
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
. K. b" W& M6 o" }& C
' D9 d! p' K+ m/ @2 h9 X" B) QS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 6 \6 ]2 g; V( ~1 l2 D
" j0 s; ]) K4 O0 m- nS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
, G, K3 u8 m3 W- C( I; m' V% T, u, P% O
2 i4 k W4 x2 S, }2 d0 T5 |, V' r# z, WS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 8 |8 ~' m& g# x+ @4 I5 t
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a3 H/ f4 b! y4 P) M
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
8 | P& L8 R' {7 a1 H8 Y: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
4 q8 S2 f, F+ X# @3 _(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
" s+ R9 q/ {5 N, W7 [# L3 V5 i" X* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \: n/ t+ B4 b7 g$ W7 N% j
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 8 ^ Y: O! e9 C. B& D7 X' }
) q( ], k9 L T& t5 q+ R9 X, ~% C1 s: C i
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 # k7 S1 F9 I9 O8 ^3 D9 g( D! D+ k
0 |0 }: c3 ^9 _- wF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 2 K4 K, [+ P( H; R) u
- w, |0 j: d# l1 E2 O6 ]于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?: ~2 R7 A. E6 t D) s
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
4 w+ E. P9 J9 t' V6 N5 DG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M) {/ Z; T- k& a
+ D$ n) P# X# M
8 O7 v0 c( A2 XG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
' r0 _! Z# V- t" y+ G" {1 P" I0 V% M! e% r
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
2 ]1 w; I3 `5 [5 N+ O8 P4 e- [( @$ ]& Q. w& j; S4 ^/ p; n. q
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
5 q: m4 F7 ]3 _1 E8 T- N/ k6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i+ S; D& C- \3 z X
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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