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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑9 C. Z' m3 c- `8 \: }
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k, J! v3 s1 p' q* C" Q" o- I
4 Z; A6 k/ V. s2 E/ r% @: ~3 \2 ~
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
( ~- l( ?4 i9 r/ ?5 Z0 U什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [+ W% I% y4 u- g/ ^# L; q3 T% J
5 h- U7 G8 d5 o3 S, { X% o. @& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h( T# h5 d: h9 U5 u
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 9 W% c3 V7 [9 |. O- `
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s) k3 i0 K/ O; R: H4 u2 p7 b
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `* t3 r' D0 k) N5 B3 J$ e" F* v$ v' e
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d' v9 }% Y- T( Q& ^3 H/ q i
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
5 J7 O4 D, t1 W, o8 Y. Q) o* k' r* F. f! u- I* I( d
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
: n; ]. Z9 _7 k+ l4 x2 z2 E6 _' | y! X1 L+ i: [# ]- E& ?2 m
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
7 ?5 L+ i4 Z. A8 x ?. G7 @' r9 ?' q$ L: K
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
1 {' w0 v' y! [% z* R8 y, y- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _8 J6 r( Q- e- H
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 $ B1 ]& v2 c8 X* z5 @! D' j! J8 w
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
8 S3 K$ s/ X& e& l$ z! ^S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
7 Q+ N; Y2 y; j* g0 B/ Y* u7 I* V& s9 T" Y: c; M4 z; `) }
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 ! P; t3 D' u8 k, L
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s. V( d9 h8 b0 c1 O0 s" `( o+ ]& P! |
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
8 r# k8 \ E& A6 e' I9 m/ ?9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j/ V; a* S3 B p) e" o
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \( ?+ B1 r z+ c) p) j6 `
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
: Y) H' S, L4 V4 C% ?8 V4 R1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
/ p# g" B9 h" p7 J1 ?2 X6 }9 W: ]: i( f9 h" S' b: J9 w' U
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
2 k# l! J( \: L7 a6 W; J
! i5 K u% \0 g7 P: l6 Q w1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
) _2 i/ m6 W5 ]2 y Q+ c: \* k
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
( a! N; k1 x3 q' Y; t2 z6 W& T7 m/ D: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r; G# g, c. H3 d' `, I& u. s0 x
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T$ t" T M; ?, Y) x% s
# \9 y0 G% Y: E( Y: i类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
$ ~0 A1 R( o4 |& F$ t
, G( q8 B& W& a7 \" MS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 0 E8 H$ g5 e4 N
4 U' X7 O+ h9 Y
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s8 ~% ?9 E3 @5 r' r
; m' V% T, u, P% O8 w2 y8 c8 q% c% H/ O. j8 D+ D
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 ) N5 ?8 `2 k6 K, S0 }; l
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
$ Q; a& I0 b0 T* Z& y5 yS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 8 K# D: k$ w! W' c* \
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~$ w4 H' m/ k5 B: b5 }4 y4 B
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o" C5 r9 c' p/ @1 O. G; X* F1 t
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \5 _* l$ [& | ?8 U; {
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 - @0 Q% j& Y& S' B( ^( w% C
) q( ], k9 L T& t/ @+ L3 B0 ^* |9 y W- X
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 . K% O; p+ d/ U2 ~
/ Y4 _- N7 G+ {2 ^' ~9 ?F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
( J$ `$ R; s4 ^. M, t4 j4 a/ c5 F9 R3 {% E
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?2 t1 A$ s; `* d8 w. b% n
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {4 W' s3 M$ f" l; `1 D
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
. Y( g0 b4 U7 W. F2 ~) v+ D$ n) P# X# M/ l6 i2 ~3 Q; t3 l' ~. q$ ?/ Y/ y
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 + z3 O) s' k" Q# l* E8 `
8 t% ^2 Q8 m/ I4 dG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]* K, k. y# r; H O* F% \" b# o
' ], ~3 H7 `0 i5 K
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
& O3 m3 r4 L, Z4 X+ Z$ s6 p9 {! q' J6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i; H: v+ j) X' x% w* D8 L
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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