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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑# F/ b. X# `# `9 C; k
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
" [: M# k9 n* q# F
$ N, z; S: ?5 Z5 {G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)- @( u/ E* o& v, D8 I2 Z+ D) L" ~
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
5 k5 P4 S3 y9 @4 f
7 e4 ?6 s2 q1 K7 ^& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h9 l; Q8 A/ ?# z. h
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
) {- J0 B9 b w' j! j7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
7 A0 i$ Y4 r2 X7 T/ J1 h7 Z c做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `2 \. r3 y$ o8 S' P) J% D* L- [, r
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d4 ~/ K( ^; R/ t% M' e& b
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
* i. u o" ?" z' q
! l% i4 `5 P# `(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 $ T7 f! V/ B) H+ a4 E
8 n# T8 \9 y0 i. H
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t% q" d3 `: p( R+ U. v0 F
0 g3 a* f. ]% g! g! n
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
9 _ F* r- K* F; m; u6 n. ^- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _/ s% k' n+ w$ A# Y* a3 ]
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
$ Q; x- F" L7 I8 ]( t1 j5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
; n7 R+ H& u$ A8 BS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
D. E- W& f) `. I8 \
3 z: R) O' T1 dS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 4 T& O4 U8 k) K3 M. {
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s q$ ]; F1 W( ?/ L
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
+ y) \! N+ A) }8 T9 `/ N( l8 \3 T9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
7 W# G% U' {# y1 B2 [; D7 oS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
: p. R# d( U7 b7 d8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
2 G* _( o) f) A6 @1 a* r# Y; K1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
. |" S0 b1 r; A4 r5 g/ r5 k$ K
8 y6 D( y/ g/ w1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l' |5 `. c$ S# r( Y" \% ]; Q
9 R5 s x/ Z* ~, W3 G: q
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
4 W9 w. o' f1 E% b) s s9 N# Q4 K2 K
# Z% z" l3 @3 ^' @ C1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 9 h. p$ M$ ]: x
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
9 X% U! L0 g9 p7 o# sS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T. y6 T0 M1 ^5 D; x4 X' N% g
; T$ O$ u+ k" D! w6 O) m, [ D
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j) z' G* E/ @: L* j: m' w, |9 e: r
) b$ K |% c/ z5 h; N8 Z( a) H; n5 _S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 7 }0 G# g9 r- h4 @3 r& p
" Z) z7 C K. |2 O; y
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s& ?) m- G, y, \6 {) j
; m' V% T, u, P% O+ K9 z# u, @1 W2 a/ ~! X
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
; o$ Q5 D5 ~: }% O9 O8 q: J6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a: X! X+ L# U3 D
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
8 N; W6 M% w! X, e! B3 D( t: W( z: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~1 {# h# L+ M8 i. _" \
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
5 d b7 U+ m3 t& q* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
' R* _ {3 e5 B6 p1 f5 }+ C. W好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
% [3 Z( Y: k8 |) q( ], k9 L T& t
5 _% B) J: [! T8 aB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 " y& u5 o+ L1 M' |8 K
* Q' _' k# q, T! o9 d% N! a3 YF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 4 _0 F: t7 q- A5 d7 q
* y' m. v- r% {0 c, v于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
! D# r1 E* z* {$ u$ r( k. O7 r# U9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {( ], s2 a h: F' P' F7 ~
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
) E& c6 Q; x1 y8 Z) h+ D$ n) P# X# M3 N# C/ Z) T# ~% |; X$ q" T: S
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 J6 s$ D+ }& r- i: f5 A
; {/ F5 R9 v3 E( v, L
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
s7 J/ D4 m; K: K2 \
/ y" ~$ k- T0 E0 p当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \2 i2 W- y7 {/ X4 _
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i* V/ }% I9 q9 X* ]) u N3 o% M, k
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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