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[体育菠菜心得方法] 凯利指数的计算及在足彩中的运用
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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑; r, {/ k  c, k+ ^  B6 C, i' D# @6 Y" y
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5 O3 m# }8 P! P凯利指数的计算方法:    ( O1 m2 a  L3 d; F& D  k8 e& e3 W. _) t. ~- B

4 l. B7 y; O8 i6 X" v$ YG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)0 {* w8 U* z9 K) V, b& F  |
什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系?  H% P+ \' B9 l  U8 T. [
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既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!   
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3 P! W2 q* |& J/ R. N* ~做下算术了:    2 i( y$ \  W: ~: {8 \" `9 |6 D$ d& x- w  L! o; i
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(1)SSP:    2.22    3.15    3.01    : `4 u/ N9 a2 y  W3 e8 }9 n
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(2)立博:    2.10    3.25    3.00    4 B# h3 N2 M( N4 D/ ~- O* y+ Y. f
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(3)威廉:    2.20    3.10    2.87    : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [  t" U% W3 N, d/ l/ D

0 G+ U5 q2 \4 H7 v  {+ E(4)易胜博:2.25    3.10    2.95   
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我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值   
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/ |1 g. t/ p' W' `S1=2.22    B1=3.15    F1=3.01   
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S2=2.10    B2=3.25    F2=3.00   
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, e6 U- N; N1 N& r2 P' VS3=2.20    B3=3.10    F3=2.87   
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9 a' `9 E  B1 g! `0 Z7 x: FS4=2.25    B14=3.10    F4=2.95    ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y  G+ \, g% X; Z+ F1 P8 _+ s9 m  }
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$ a5 o8 p' G, f) v& |( V) B1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01    =>    r1=0.91    8 R6 u' R8 a* }) t9 h/ |7 B9 P* Z" r
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1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00    =>    r2=0.90    # t0 ?( P  e* X% l
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: J5 m. ]2 F: `$ h/ ~1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87    =>    r3=0.89    % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q- R8 s# U# y) f: W

6 s& q9 j6 _% K+ {1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95    =>    r4=0.90    $ G1 v( @* N, ?5 L
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/ B, a/ t0 r! R- `S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41    : W# q# m$ g# T
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# }" c  m# K. a, U  ?( v1 N类似的计算后,于是:    # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M  j
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% e6 G( G  ~4 \, U6 j2 ES1'=41    B1'=29    F1'=30;   
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S2'=43    B2'=28    F2'=30    3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
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0 P0 Z! o6 d0 `$ P4 i7 gS3'=40    B3'=29    F3'=31   
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S4'=40    B4'=29    F4'=31   
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5 K5 o2 E* p7 w1 U* `2 v(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了)    8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
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* l) p+ Z" R; H. ~5 M' ~好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41    ( U# `6 B3 Z4 r
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75    2 g% ]- {  U& h0 B. \$ q: F

- E; i' k+ a" ~, _F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5    / C4 b! G0 n' V* X

* L  u* @' W1 Q: k于是:    / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P  E8 u9 j! |0 ?
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G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02    ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M- A/ K8 ?- A9 s1 D  Z, [
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  c5 X& u* s) F% zG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56    ! ]! h) Z! N# F% q( t6 n

. A2 E$ d* ~- K6 a2 a% V; U- EG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8    2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]1 V* K* m3 k0 o7 S
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当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。    好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。    + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
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通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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进来学习一下
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这个太深奥了,看不懂
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这么高深 概率论研究的很好啊
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