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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
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会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!* r$ D4 c( c3 |7 q" o4 t8 S
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首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
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% n8 y7 ?. j, y7 R: j* s5 D请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。% O! V8 w6 Q) L$ o, {! }- g" a
1 R6 Q1 `1 ]6 e答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!& e* m/ k) E! o9 D1 o
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
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2 c3 [; O4 s _: j. Z+ M现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!4 n6 { U p% b
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。" X& ^+ X9 ~! a8 e
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这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。+ S, p9 ^+ h# _2 a5 I' [9 W1 z' \
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接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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- Z" c1 [8 _* h, U8 ^0 ^" j玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
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G. n ?; X- G3 H" O' F/ M如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。 g" x |% |, `4 A5 N" ^2 @6 B' v
- i+ Q, I/ s3 ^% N3 q但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。4 l1 n5 @/ d, V4 x/ t C
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下注比例 本金结果
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0.1% 1.001902
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1 B. u* N$ Y: h# y# N3 T0.2% 1.003606
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0.3% 1.005113
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4 k, F, V( `, O0.4% 1.006421, h* ~' s- H: F+ l$ b+ `
9 ^& Z0 v' k7 g5 |; f0.5% 1.007528
" S% R8 h* ^1 j9 a% }, z# z% k, \3 t% e; [
0.6% 1.0084350 ?- I4 `' {$ m& i$ _% W
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0.7% 1.0091426 S5 p' L$ t6 i; g: }) B, b
, N! w# _4 u7 v2 [9 C1 i0.8% 1.0096469 K) F3 U8 {4 S* w
0 a O6 F5 m7 D! c
0.9% 1.0099491 F# ]3 w5 R( }% {# ]: B( I' W! l* i
7 |8 Q# ]! h$ I% K$ o
1.0% 1.01005
: `, _+ f2 [+ y9 L9 x! i/ Z Z- }
+ Z% a1 v; c; _ u: J" ~2 V9 v9 h1.1% 1.009949$ Z- x* K7 A u/ m1 A4 f% v% G0 t% V
3 M4 ~' Q2 i5 z9 J; ^
1.2% 1.009646
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1.3% 1.009142# \7 R! g# {$ {! r8 H
1 q1 [9 d2 S3 s& Y% f" l- ?( k6 y
1.4% 1.008435
* w/ O9 I: r+ Y- S4 @/ c+ G N+ z' N$ F9 b& h
1.5% 1.007528: }0 x4 A, U$ ]5 v1 I
4 S' I/ A; w( ?/ x8 C1 |0 w1.6% 1.00642. v3 u$ ]0 K; |# S& h$ f
* P! G5 B/ i7 j, u# C* ^
1.7% 1.005112
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1.8% 1.003605
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1.9% 1.0019
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2.0% 0.999997
+ b- T" P. x! x6 A( V
' ~6 M0 c# @1 o' v! f2.1% 0.997899) I# c7 q4 M0 U5 M+ ]
" V' H6 \6 E0 F ~2.2% 0.995605+ z& P P: i: \0 R
8 E# C, Z+ @7 {( H/ }2.3% 0.9931189 ?( a! C. E3 L+ Z; Y' g
1 b/ w7 t9 f. F5 J0 i2 B2.4% 0.990439" r! s0 x6 i" L! @# D
8 K, Q. L' x- D& d8 A4 x3 L2.5% 0.987569
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2.6% 0.98451( c3 n& F5 N0 p
0 I! e& @. f4 V# K2 {" _4 S2.7% 0.981264
# w/ d* p9 z& g; u
- B7 C8 R9 x5 q2.8% 0.977833( ]( s W+ B1 t% a
1 m9 h$ v9 b- w) ?5 J2.9% 0.974219' ?3 g: y% Q0 d( r6 Y
5 E; H6 J4 e$ B" l) Z: R4 g3 L v! r3.0% 0.970424
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1 q( o1 p q- ]; k' D从上表可以得到一些结论:3 U! N3 {# W) p% e
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!4 n6 a0 U' ^& I& U ]7 m B
, A! {/ i, H6 |3 o: f$ p3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈/ L% m9 k j* o H
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凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...3 g+ x4 K/ m% ~. J# B7 E5 R, p6 o
+ [$ G# f# l+ F D0 r0 u v1 Y然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。! A3 S8 I6 R' }% q9 C, n% l4 W9 s
' c6 |$ [+ o* n6 k* r# f9 o; M; n以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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