×
Array
(
[fid] => 6903
[description] => 汇聚千万菠菜人经过无数次摸爬滚打总结出的原创经验打法,更是菠菜高手纯粹交流殿堂。
[password] =>
[icon] => 27/common_6903_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6903
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6951,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6895,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6975,6976,6799,6974,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,1121,6977,6765,6948,6879,6845,6903
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6903
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6951,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6895,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6975,6976,6799,6974,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,1121,6977,6765,6948,6879,6845,6903
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[716] => 版块公告
[1510] => 打法练习
[1511] => 打法交流
[1659] => 入驻合作
[1745] => 提现流水
)
[icons] => Array
(
[716] =>
[1510] =>
[1511] =>
[1659] =>
[1745] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[716] => 1
[1510] =>
[1511] =>
[1659] =>
[1745] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 31 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 理论实战大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 4
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 15126
[posts] => 517983
[todayposts] => 7
[yesterdayposts] => 19
[rank] => 7
[oldrank] => 3
[lastpost] => 2649286 【吉祥坊】5月11日投注流水240840元(单日流水) 1715658105 舞出精彩
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 0
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 1
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 8
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 4
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 1050 小时
本月在线: 3 小时
|
|
有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?; m/ d" O# ]; W _+ ^
" V, x6 p; `+ T9 u! x3 _! d5 q1 h
会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
$ X# D4 v- B2 M7 [- k# S5 D, `$ @3 {! ]5 ~7 {
其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!6 `; u M, @ K0 P: G0 k+ `
& g" k0 `4 s6 I& h) }- f$ P v
首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?' f0 h" z! C2 D3 O! a' G7 k
8 _# E" G* n( M+ K& _/ ~请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
) q2 G$ c4 g& T9 }7 w
. a$ x+ {. \ d* K* e% p3 c答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!# I5 Q& J/ h3 \) O+ G' }3 ]
5 u. h7 @1 s" I$ n例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
* u& y' r4 J/ H {6 u
; T5 M/ Q; X1 {( O$ U1 {; _现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?7 C; `/ B/ x5 _& R1 [- v
! D$ h- n2 k; d6 q$ R- V$ v4 @( X我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
v$ \$ l4 K6 @8 ?! b! N* C7 T7 r8 L5 B$ }
玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
% y8 Z& q, Y' x4 q& e0 N" w" N( i& A+ Y( G+ F) G1 q. a* h/ K
玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。& ~+ z0 a: v& w& B: w* }
: l; _9 ] S M6 t5 S这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
4 K, K- r6 G& D" S$ V: q5 I5 I* H& ^
% V* K% ]! q$ G8 M" b4 R接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?, a) V S; @1 y' ]
. F! M$ ?$ ~0 T# b/ Y' F' Z
玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。: W. X9 A8 w( V6 u
# s R( P$ B8 v再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
% @+ T: g2 ]5 @& A! a* n$ T \: I* E3 {: ] E4 {3 U
如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
' ?1 W. e* P2 p
7 x# w$ ?( }2 O/ r8 X" U但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
1 y) e* |8 h* S7 C( d' t7 _$ O" ]6 `& U) |, a; c) `
下注比例 本金结果
+ a8 ]9 I6 D0 l3 i
& u' b; ^8 q% C! Y. M2 w2 S% C0.1% 1.001902+ ~8 N8 [% [/ N! }' f7 V
) r% I: q8 [: ~/ n! A0.2% 1.003606' N3 Z& D5 v8 U. {1 \# J
4 t8 C4 C8 q+ u4 \$ ?6 w: G
0.3% 1.0051131 Z3 s5 _8 A8 P5 l& z
* @& q% X4 X$ n0.4% 1.006421
' L: o+ ~/ f m! F* g( e* m
# C/ M" [5 T6 B) c5 P& r0.5% 1.007528& _- o- _2 E1 a1 K
: E: G+ F& H% c3 z$ g e; N- g0.6% 1.008435
, l/ H5 L! J0 P9 F1 \$ U" o$ V0 z$ {. K, l
0.7% 1.0091420 E' m* u) `/ a7 S% C
; Y6 a3 f4 U7 f0.8% 1.009646* v1 V: F Z* R: E; V: j
3 d, q' C! k7 Q0.9% 1.009949- o: ~* m% Q; S; g
3 s4 o Q! m( f: L1.0% 1.01005; U0 \. N+ u. l; T% p( g/ u
# o/ s/ {) n9 |
1.1% 1.009949 V2 Z$ ]! O7 ?4 y5 \
/ ^8 E, x. g4 f% e0 M1 T& j
1.2% 1.009646 b) P6 J: v2 ?. b( c& R4 }5 `
1 K* @' U3 ?$ ^ k8 ^0 z
1.3% 1.0091420 r9 Z, v. |3 D+ |- g
# K7 ^% H" w% k$ M1 {; |& ?1.4% 1.008435 k% _4 W% E% b
. o9 b6 s# E6 o1 L, a4 \& u
1.5% 1.007528
6 Z9 O0 g6 y* g8 ^+ Q& Y9 W4 j( R9 k1 U' k% V/ H
1.6% 1.00642% Z& T& _; Z. B! g* W. f' r
1 c# g: o% L& t" m- m: ~/ b1.7% 1.005112
; r4 ~8 l2 ^9 m) {
8 n7 k8 F' T: m/ _8 l2 `' |1.8% 1.003605
8 k3 F8 v8 f9 i1 {7 ?5 C" r
+ Q$ M; F2 H0 o1 f1 m) J1.9% 1.0019! L/ B8 ?. l8 z1 I
W" e: v( n) F5 h% p& k2.0% 0.999997
! V4 w* @; x) h. t; S
) T/ q4 u6 S; n5 d2.1% 0.997899
3 t6 `; v2 P P4 z$ I! y- v9 c, H& s* S5 Y( Z* _( T$ @ `
2.2% 0.995605 h# S3 P, o! d# r, u. E
, N# p4 w. I' ~! N2.3% 0.9931182 x# u; ?$ `8 u
3 U n/ ?( ?; v* r
2.4% 0.990439! T/ J" Y5 [) o; J
9 s! R4 m" g& X7 }' m6 a- m2.5% 0.9875692 j3 ~4 [( b! v; x+ s
: Z; x5 u1 z: o1 M6 D x- X7 Q
2.6% 0.984515 f$ T4 u* {8 p3 l7 Z' D! e
5 G+ H7 c- _0 g9 f' h2 b2.7% 0.981264' d& U! x; V0 ~9 n* a
' y( r! o* K4 L
2.8% 0.977833
# }/ ~4 [6 @: v% B9 {' e
4 r ~ k- J1 v2.9% 0.9742197 [% m7 w _6 T
, g* w& j7 B4 |& @0 G" i
3.0% 0.970424
+ ~3 i( a% y/ N& _ {, |# W: R" D* X7 }8 y) z5 R( F
从上表可以得到一些结论:' X) E B* W% y0 ~* p/ r, J
2 @: W; A% A1 a1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利, P: J8 E& v y& C# O4 b& j
- {2 z3 N+ q) A2 u7 h% b5 l
2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
9 p2 s X: c: e1 U) M1 v- a' q0 `- x; n9 M+ y6 }
3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈' }# U$ r! [7 P- ]+ n) K* o
/ r2 `8 w$ {; o7 U/ k8 H# n
凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
+ G3 y" J. ^3 J6 _# }' A0 Y2 V0 U
0 C3 H! Z6 V9 H; t然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
" ?/ w2 w0 Q* Z: C4 W% U% X! T' [. o' X4 A# C T
以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
! d. N7 i- T1 z* X/ w# K
2 J0 y6 Q. d- o1 Z |
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 11519 小时
本月在线: 48 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 17412 小时
本月在线: 37 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 3399 小时
本月在线: 16 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 16932 小时
本月在线: 99 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2130 小时
本月在线: 21 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 8200 小时
本月在线: 23 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 12094 小时
本月在线: 18 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 9387 小时
本月在线: 36 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4169 小时
本月在线: 32 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|