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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
# e- s6 i5 q4 x6 {3 }' B& V/ l, D/ q# ^, p' r1 F+ I' ?
会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
7 P: Z5 d- N" k0 _. C
8 E8 J9 Q8 T/ j$ _; T: z e* _其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!( d) I: E X! @ a( \
; c& C: E) Z/ ?' z6 `" v; r' X
首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?1 D% M7 i0 u- Q6 H, |7 c
; O6 s. }# K+ H5 g# @
请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。! l) G$ j }% W
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
3 y, j7 `2 C0 I- A }" S& D( Z4 w+ W/ x+ C
例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
3 ~) w( s) `' Y6 ]7 g1 B# D
( F2 W, C- _2 Q! K( Y! N6 |1 ~现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
3 e9 o. `& \) m1 F H
2 h& T, o4 a! L8 Z& v# t我们先来看一个0和的游戏。/ n8 k# k) g6 i
2 H! u% e, g `, ~ L2 d* U |玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
; I( R# ?' ?( K+ O- W6 V
3 D: h2 n- t% w6 ]2 V/ C3 ]这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。# |* X4 |5 {* c) `: e
% s: f5 ~& \& I, J/ z
接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?" c' O3 \' L. ?3 J0 X9 ?
% x+ Z; ]/ ?; `5 N) P玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。" K7 r" B- W, H) ?
+ S* m7 D8 R R+ o. k" p b再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。' v/ T- \1 a3 I+ U' I
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。$ J7 U$ t* n% t7 o- U- p, x! C6 s( |
1 B. T# v. U. P但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。8 l2 o4 }; V0 d
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下注比例 本金结果
4 o5 R" y \5 U! K. e: F8 U ^: `! U2 G, r8 S' |
0.1% 1.001902& ?3 G. f" w. r0 w9 g
! ]9 M) M# M! B% K( J. ] G
0.2% 1.003606
6 {) t3 |' m' z: f% L
. Q7 c' I {" U/ v0.3% 1.005113$ W% r. ~ E0 T; C* S
. l. t2 i8 n8 c2 B
0.4% 1.006421
4 i5 |0 k3 z a3 a' h9 F# E, `, Y; @! n6 E5 ~
0.5% 1.007528$ K& r6 E& O( q2 d6 O
1 N3 a/ j8 Y) _ V! j& m4 v" I
0.6% 1.008435: ?7 T) R9 H* k8 ~
1 f' n+ ?& R4 H5 ^4 l& K- y
0.7% 1.009142
/ E' g5 \9 i/ R' E% x' E
! Q& L$ Y1 F" J2 F |0.8% 1.009646
( t- w; n( S$ W$ f7 c8 B! \' g0 B; T, I; F. w7 {3 w7 \6 |
0.9% 1.0099497 @! O5 r( d4 Y" P G$ |6 g6 X0 f
8 X j* C1 h% j1.0% 1.01005
% _, h# X- ]$ p6 z& F( ~1 U# a8 i) [$ ^( m' a! R3 u
1.1% 1.009949- q4 e% [* } {. \, e
+ L+ f! p. R8 X& w- G, D Q }: X
1.2% 1.009646
9 W' x6 e$ x8 G; }. G/ ?4 y/ |+ B: v/ @7 t, f0 D) b* p- [
1.3% 1.009142
) @" K. [. b/ n5 v2 \+ F( Y2 {0 E! ?/ C& K
1.4% 1.008435
1 j% w8 r/ F) ~% s6 G' @; a; K
8 t, o; G2 O4 \1.5% 1.007528+ j9 |0 N' i) N
. H6 {+ I- b1 D: l
1.6% 1.00642
: _' V6 L/ m n9 {: _# N' z+ p: e. S* O
1.7% 1.0051120 H. E; K, `) s
0 v* B- R3 C' v& {+ R5 V& k
1.8% 1.0036052 U1 [0 Q. `- H6 d7 V; B' C( b
( p! s& |4 A6 J; R$ T: t# u$ J1.9% 1.0019: l, r3 P8 d, G* c
2 g5 c1 `& X- F C8 b2 s5 p2.0% 0.999997
5 ]# w+ Y' m2 k2 _- `; c4 Q
) \" m, j6 X+ t+ c& W0 ^2.1% 0.997899
% r: V$ I6 [8 c/ {+ n/ P& A, q8 Z( Q" c! k6 s
2.2% 0.995605+ A$ @ w0 ]: P: [% I
0 z. g* U; G% k' J6 r/ h! Y$ x, g/ z2.3% 0.993118
5 U8 y9 P" v/ p6 B
/ }3 I/ O3 X* h$ c. h1 J2.4% 0.990439
3 w, B |* l' ~! C( C V) D9 d" I! y4 n2 `4 m
2.5% 0.987569
/ G6 n7 g ? m( i3 R* d# K5 `: f
( A' l0 Z! J+ B: F2.6% 0.98451
) Y6 C3 Y# i }2 o+ K! i/ B! n& \4 U% j2 M
2.7% 0.981264( H5 r& n/ Y$ e
/ a7 W* @ f s' a# K; o2 d2.8% 0.9778338 f# O* a" K3 h' N I! a1 i+ }3 F& g
. a e, r' B: y1 E, \. u* y- z" q$ J2.9% 0.974219
7 c+ l6 k- X; B2 K3 _1 S7 H8 B7 R2 G: T- ~: G% L9 p, o5 I3 J% `
3.0% 0.970424 M/ I7 V6 P2 [, D( V0 B
: x/ Z% X" Q. `" _) a3 h3 |* y
从上表可以得到一些结论:* o+ t0 I6 | h) P/ e
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利3 e: K5 v! J6 } T1 w+ N7 u: I
3 M. o2 v$ M! X. g$ W2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!' J$ G! _6 ?2 P* A
& I5 l e2 A6 s; o3 A4 B3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
% ~1 j3 d1 q' i t6 Z3 u1 }; j
" M8 I- X0 I' Q, |8 j: G凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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. Y& k: Y$ q! ?' u# o然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
2 Z. U' M1 M# V( z% _
& Y6 J8 \; g/ e; x4 d5 T, k: h以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。) m4 ^( @8 S4 y8 o/ \
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