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小分3种情况:
9 L1 r! c; `9 A9 v4 D: Q& L) D5 `6 h, K( W
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。" E, n1 L4 O' d% x: o4 _% M+ x* |
8 g. @5 H5 r; ^, m) }5 g4 l2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
0 ~0 }- P. E2 e& r, C; K3 D0 F7 v" r( t8 Z$ |6 z& z
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。1 [! E* A7 K" W/ q! _) l8 b
, g2 m) z, e; _# f+ U2张牌8或9点的情况有:
" o0 K" ?9 r: A$ B3 a' U$ B5 ?/ ]1 x& ^) C$ Y; u( K0 m
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
% E+ ?8 ^4 t2 e- P$ q6 W8 r* v5 r6 w! P
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415 t2 r8 d& r) i# G) K; A) Q0 g
$ y2 J& H8 l7 V5 S4 p3 {
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415- f* m* @# o& O; `5 P X
' c, s# |6 {! J4 A
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
9 E! s6 l7 i9 ?" D1 Y6 N! D) c+ O3 P, W6 d0 e! \% d/ X: L
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。7 D. \1 K7 ]; U$ s: p
w* P r: P4 B/ F! T6 Q- c通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
# d0 o3 j7 c: s8 s2 K
( }5 j) u1 Y5 {1 B) d那么我们可以得出( @9 n8 [# f+ q( o+ o# L% \0 l
9 K2 v6 B0 a7 c* E0 v# A4 j% z* m* w1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
* Y2 a& z' a- Y' M$ O, O
. ]( b1 p5 {4 S8 f8 A: A9 M2 ]( }2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 ( F6 q0 |; B6 p8 d8 H% H/ T5 Z1 Z
" i, @* U! ?$ s0 H3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491' G* } ^( k- W
3 P7 I R+ Q# H1 q/ J2 Q所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.3788693233 W3 P! G& f' f6 r9 G
" e/ z/ N5 p2 Y$ k% L) F! G( h- a
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
+ E/ }1 E; }( G6 e' r |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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