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# |) ^1 s% G3 ]7 s7 ^
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
9 a0 @9 k8 ~4 n/ n% ZDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
0 g( @* I8 x3 l! N衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
9 \2 B9 N' Z# K! Q: D" D一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
2 t8 T: F* ?, G3 rBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
4 ^; K F$ R0 g$ o: ^8 {& oPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
5 [' M/ w. v" i% @; S2024年4月第四次减半
9 V( R t$ p" I( z机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
, g. u! m9 b2 m( L; o# @: z7 S可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)# G! L# `" @* Q
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
! D+ X% m- @5 V, H$ {二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
% u! S$ E6 k& J& Ifriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
% o }$ N( h- ]0 B% y8 T/ `Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠7 ]6 Z. {8 j5 _0 `
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。+ w" l) i' l X
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
2 m; j9 z. Q& h) c除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
; ~, a+ K2 `) i3 m4 p金融(TradFi)产品。
% N8 D0 B8 f) t6 v2 e+ W1 w0 }如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
/ e7 R7 ^: u, b4 [" A6 n, i4 a链桥」的项目。* z s% f+ t" ]1 T" \* f5 S# H1 i
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
# I. `$ z' q; E1 W" M模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作/ \" o1 H1 r2 \4 g, \9 Y& P
等。( J$ S2 i1 t/ z& d
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
) T: }5 Y$ `8 {# i1 q& c在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
* K% }7 G$ y: y+ H: q五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
3 v0 i, d6 X" e& Q) c) KPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
( ]6 g6 V7 T+ R# x! t! k数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。5 J7 r0 w! _5 @( \
Pantera点名了几个项目：2 A; v C$ m7 F8 k7 l
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
9 k8 J+ z; e" UBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台# Q' m# m1 [' t/ ]0 v K0 s9 V
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品1 e+ E9 y. X* u
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
8 ?: p1 G8 \: o# s: _8 ]Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
' |( I: N) P# a六、小型公链需专注特定应用
3 B M1 ~6 f% c0 t6 qPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
- x {* f! `0 C3 B至能直接与L2竞争。5 L' G3 d$ d( C% Z6 k6 b- p
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。: A2 @( B X# y! k8 X
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地0 @* N7 N% X3 [) O, r
成为「应用链」。$ x4 `4 Z! b" i6 r+ p2 W
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。" J2 G; |) d2 ~, c3 F
4 O7 y8 A+ T% v+ f |
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