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' V; D( S' M% [: [; z4 W
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
7 F5 @' o) |0 M: Y7 C G& X5 X5 l3 {! {8 yDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，2 V' C0 U8 Z" r3 `# ~
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
5 u ^! X; T2 T7 p0 G& P! ^一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0 w) o; S8 @4 M) a) H* }0 j
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
) F+ ]# m& c, N, k$ TPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：( I' u/ y Z( y" S
2024年4月第四次减半) x8 }4 \; x9 r8 }- I7 w
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
$ c5 A4 d" _" {- Z6 e可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
' y/ p( J- n. `9 a针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
) c0 [2 e6 K5 `0 ?: H% `+ P二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
8 s) T: U. u# ]7 |: Vfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。- O+ L- r1 K; ]) t4 X
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
* \ U J2 J; T: ~. v) a诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
* Z- _* Y1 X7 K# E1 ^三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁* Y) q6 \6 a* A e4 w# T: }8 J/ O
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
9 b7 O( c; n* d4 y金融(TradFi)产品。
A/ a1 O7 [& T如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨. F! X( E1 N$ z& K' P' w# k3 A" m' C
链桥」的项目。
2 i: W: ] @* N4 T6 E" |7 E- o# W% k四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉" F5 Y5 `; q! H# w1 D& s
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
! q X& e$ z# P2 u等。
( c9 ~" m9 v4 _. e( WPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
9 j" h6 ?8 Z% T4 V在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
& y7 j0 c: M' Z4 l五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN7 U! V' z; [8 s. q
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
3 y) c+ C$ n1 V4 B9 F4 Y数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
- {, G: b# J5 c0 OPantera点名了几个项目：
% w3 g: j* E/ `* iHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
7 i& t, G+ ~0 |+ OBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
6 \5 C7 s0 P+ z6 e% pModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
* C& @) C3 Q* @/ f/ d+ eThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划
6 v! J- U8 e3 X1 C9 T& JRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游6 D. @5 P) Y2 L& T4 |
六、小型公链需专注特定应用
9 K/ ^% u; H: ^0 s9 L. pPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚! z# O# j' S! l* O; q
至能直接与L2竞争。
( g! l9 Z8 n+ _+ h5 Y8 f- z! o4 q: F也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。7 }. Q3 _- _4 B' ~7 X, d/ y8 ?
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
) l9 b. g. y3 b( w3 F成为「应用链」。
* N8 u5 Z" w6 b! _事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。4 d% {# b4 _, ]! w- a
8 V8 Y2 e2 n `& ^
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