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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。' H: _& O6 n1 @8 V# A
: s; Y3 g" b1 d2 j5 y但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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5 R. r1 \! E# v$ q7 f9 C, wUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？1 i3 U1 H8 T/ ~- s& w
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市& [. t! s5 g$ v: b& L
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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来源：Alphractal
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4 C( T- f4 j$ B15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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# N7 C; V3 h! [6 e事情变得有趣了' {( o. w* y" M( n: S7 n8 J" [" c
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。5 T. z# w, d0 G
! R( _4 ~. j: U8 o: b9 Y& P来源：X- b) d# D5 u4 h: T2 O$ b
3 b! |: m. b/ F根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。% q& R" ~! `" i8 ]/ I; u- f
1 n& y: W+ Y5 V A: n A! ABTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。0 A- U4 g N A
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
9 t& w0 n& _7 t' D( q0 Z- b5 h经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。0 e6 T8 a# n M4 ]( `
. e9 L9 y- k; T+ q7 ?来源：TradingView j4 {6 s$ Z, f9 [3 A' l9 C9 @
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。9 z2 {, v; h6 W. E @6 J* H
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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