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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。4 `  W3 ?& @2 R5 B
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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: A/ X$ j/ M3 X) |- g5 w皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ' m" \0 o8 z1 W6 V
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)& |9 x8 M2 B! E

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% G. @! \3 {4 Q: n8 O. j* J. |以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性" H/ f4 j, G3 \& z( F

) H( H, y6 z; I$ J. d4 g% x2 M对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。7 h7 h" i2 g# L
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增值1 [  G6 q6 N# O6 X( b, }

3 g5 d) j( t: }, ?许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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. j; P9 j+ d, y+ A' Y  w$ n你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?. u6 A0 f, N1 Z2 [, m2 R
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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& @* r5 C/ R. @正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润5 N/ w' O1 Z. I' _9 A
60%的机会你会一无所有1 w, L+ Q+ ^% |
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
& G( n+ @. q1 C2 R, N, b由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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" Q7 T8 s' i) _$ o! O基于增值的投注7 G! A2 ?5 p  b5 w+ Y7 }

2 P6 V0 |2 e0 |$ p2 u5 E# z0 r  \凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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2 ?* C& d6 u9 j% v4 k' P- d* |公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
4 z. ~  z( E+ }  uP=获胜机会9 N$ y" l+ W$ X6 x- H6 h
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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# D6 G4 f5 O6 M3 D& j首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。4 p, m: L2 O- @  I2 f
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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: }3 T7 ]* r& Q3 }1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)% v- a1 t& X0 Q& T( q' \5 y$ ]1 `
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)/ p" @! T% L+ k7 M* g; z
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A=07 ^- c* O$ s5 I9 z, g4 \
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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$ l, f. j; Z: i/ [/ E6 ~. H) W2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1% r5 I& a3 j6 H& t7 x: ~

" U. _8 O1 V" Z$ I$ Y' ?( w0 L结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)/ D5 G( D  ]" S( b

9 I$ a* w6 w8 ^! f# Z4 PA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2 ' q' R0 K- h# V& G8 n5 G1 X
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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; A. i& f6 l8 z3 H+ D( b  z; O& g第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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