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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

" T' n& v. T) b
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
3 J6 k" Q5 B2 N7 i10A23456789
8 w8 L, \) m- L8 s/ H-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159: r2 R% m4 m" u  {6 S: I% D: M# |
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
: f3 Y( |2 x7 z+ _; O1 M* R" X8 _-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
) w- L7 Q+ }, }0 P/ h# F6 L-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
' _5 v2 f1 ~; x" ~-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.1084 [* t% _4 p  C1 }& k( d, }
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
  |7 p, m' w# v  g" P$ c3 y-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.0851 z3 |1 H6 V) Q( j" i6 n6 |! ?
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.0748 n+ ?8 q" [; n/ b3 b2 @' h
0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.0641 j/ |  Y2 u! D# c# Y
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
4 X3 X0 T8 o+ [# w3 J7 [2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045- V" d1 O1 X+ P" `2 a! g7 k: a
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
& t- o, d; c9 V* `* f4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.0281 w, i! {- ^% e
5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.0202 v4 R/ a2 S# a
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
) E% b/ r8 ?4 k7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.0075 j% h4 j2 Y8 z6 B
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001- l5 j4 V. A# e$ f) d" ?
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
  V5 G% s- y7 _8 y, l% G10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992
) c( B5 v4 H1 H0 r; A11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
& X/ T) {, C% m' }, c% U12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.9851 F* Y+ X/ }4 @" L
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.9820 `) t8 L; o# v3 E7 ]& B
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980( d" T8 P  R/ h; s' t
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
" ^1 M2 i3 Y5 V/ |16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979
: {3 N1 K. i$ b# Q8 H17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
( F" T; g! X, j# Y0 b18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979
( V7 a8 t% V# W0 O# H! i( S19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.9810 I; @8 O7 v1 u, B6 S+ p* e* @6 f
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
9 V+ |$ l; C( [, }; V- O" Q21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986
( S. R. S* Y1 k+ z22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
5 ~) f: N! E4 B! [+ x# F6 k23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
1 T1 N$ }1 W! A$ R% @& P24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
  D& }, b$ K9 ^+ q25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
3 A) D+ I$ |) Y! ^+ _& i, D* A

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


2 G/ |& k7 w& b! f, E表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類0 j! b7 l7 d! U. [3 W
10A23456789- c# }, |5 h2 N0 l; @! x( ]
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.0950 T- w, D& O7 \( U5 k
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082" s9 e; S) P+ `$ n
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069" R6 }) M/ v# Y7 ~1 I
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056& B7 o2 `8 O, L% ~/ @
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044/ p5 T7 Z2 U5 i& ?
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
- v# X9 \/ i3 F" `  H) [+ g, v& j-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021- a. J7 [5 |+ r+ p! t) z- Y
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.0105 U8 ~3 O+ r* E. W6 j0 m4 C
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
$ a: m: l  W' b. Y$ t# @- L1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
7 O- f' ]) S" [9 b: B4 m2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
% `+ Q4 {5 p6 Z; }6 {" V0 k0 W3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.0288 r0 q) I( N) v& o( T: U
4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036- P$ d, a# i4 k, e  q0 v
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044& B0 @8 x' s8 \1 f
6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.0515 v' V9 q' Q! `* v1 b
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057* c- ]5 s: z+ l+ b
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.0636 j2 b: d% w- Q' m) p/ M  e
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068
+ [2 ^4 [( @4 Q3 l9 v* r$ J10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
( \6 y0 {$ z3 t, {0 S6 D11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076& Y* t3 ?% @8 _* c* S: t8 ]1 M
12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
8 {7 ^6 m) o2 z' M- s! Y13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
4 |5 a4 u1 [# }6 l( x$ X# D14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
3 s. D3 x( u4 R/ O. z9 u) X15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085* m  s$ g# j: o6 x9 n) B0 R
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
6 ~( T/ Y5 \3 X! x$ J17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
2 f# q9 m* i: K* W4 R18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
( W) E' W4 b& r  Z; g19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
0 E: l2 g( o- t0 u0 q7 o2 Z5 R: P20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
; q# o8 {9 h1 Z4 S! n21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.0782 D+ m# U" f8 A( R
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.0753 p2 {5 i  ?8 O# M
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071
! ~1 K: ]/ h5 B5 u24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
& D" a  U, E5 S4 J25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.0623 m% |0 Z6 r- H

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。


% N/ g& W- W1 o! X! U( f- O0 X押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類; r% L  ^' a) p' A1 Z
10A23456789. R: _# j$ r! U+ z& V; x
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
) Q1 C5 U5 L  `; m1 G4 z-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
$ ~8 T" s, s" G( n( R* y-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.1526 v; X+ C# j% F$ x
-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166
2 q9 X+ a0 G, {& E$ M" g8 Z1 L( T-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
& Z0 ^+ Q* B2 k( h  i-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
, T! G) _4 l9 u; H$ |-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
; x( `! s+ y* `* _  t; n, ?+ h-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.2178 X3 D/ ^# |; S: ^. q8 U
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.2283 I$ n. J/ z3 E0 M1 H; a
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.2392 B' q+ m. P# m3 y+ j
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
7 f1 h7 c% Q# y3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.2589 Z1 c4 G+ g, |2 T+ ?
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
/ q6 V8 {2 a8 K7 r5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274$ W! P, H, \9 R
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281" f$ F' T# I2 r; G6 I
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.2879 k8 {1 t% O" n- K  r+ ?
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.2939 p+ w5 g  L) P% O
9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298" |' o3 |) o4 X' p& u
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
4 g( g0 D7 I) }0 Q11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.3060 m0 V+ }3 z9 E1 n
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
+ U7 q% M5 F- J, R13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310
0 @; x% n7 N% L5 u14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
' ?* B9 B, ?* _7 @: y2 A+ S, k, b15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
( v2 Y' D$ z" j& }9 E% O16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311' c( V9 Q5 M+ W: O
17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310. F4 U  `& E* l$ k
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
5 Q( S3 o' T& B1 k! e19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305( n! G) Q) \/ u# Q6 \5 X
20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301" I  x) x1 [- X' k9 H
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
7 }8 n+ i/ h9 n22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
1 Y3 Z. O6 G# w, G23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
* t% _2 G6 j; F; j24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279
3 E2 P' B% H" s& v$ \6 {6 s25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272  K+ P6 f6 T3 E9 ]

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
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6#
似懂非懂………
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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