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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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) a* G9 D- W( X只跟踪一个联赛
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' \3 h, d5 O+ F* r全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔8 D* O6 b1 r( n0 u. w: A! I

; K6 t5 [+ l" K三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）8 a8 u4 D, q  O9 n/ F# [# p6 ^
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱3 j- M+ j" \( [: h1 z! q& E
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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; |/ P. H1 I; s; }7 Z8 H9 u! x亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，  m' x& C% z# _
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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! M. @0 {5 a2 B5 ]; [7 o理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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1 K$ ]- h8 c/ w排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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顶起再慢慢看

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以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，  s7 a1 n) b/ b" z; o/ N
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。: ~2 {; y% F2 @; J: @

; f$ p4 F, v/ W5 p, Q* p; Z# p在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，( q- s0 [0 J4 n4 ^
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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& ~, B9 W( z1 c常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。9 @9 E! y6 F+ B% h
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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8 y3 s7 [7 O2 r# H就是回避了大的亏损，
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' W7 c* N+ R8 B! i* O大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，9 r/ R, K: f. v0 r/ ^* p6 k
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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