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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛
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6 M. w, H! R+ w( ], V( [# I3 G全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔- ]5 A; b, D' H, e9 N

* L- ]0 z& @) F% O; r5 U  m+ Q. ]+ ?三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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! b) c; d! p1 F9 N# K7 N0 j5 [- w& H偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。! @' q+ U: Z/ R+ d8 f+ t) O( ]! U

9 b+ o6 e( n6 _0 H方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）" v. V$ R0 x; E' ?! F
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，# y% d0 m. g1 D6 G! s

# l) j" T  T% y  V' {就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱6 b! A; W$ w9 J. `- S, }

% Z3 A8 k/ ]/ z4 \7 n5 K1 q当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目; G$ k8 H( K2 O
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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" N# j& |# t: y" c; `9 w/ C7 A  ?而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，1 L$ z3 Z3 y0 Y  L7 |7 p

* _( o. j( _. W( P3 t' r/ S但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。% p  s: A# `. F$ ^* {

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3 X1 G# Y/ C/ R5 V2 x, R理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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: M* ~5 G, m: Y2 L排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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顶起再慢慢看

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以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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/ M; L6 a% i; e: F0 `# ^; c这比买国债存银行合算。/ M: `6 a* @# A
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，0 R, P% @8 ~+ Z
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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6 n# C. r; [5 }9 v1 Y1 I' P. [' O, ]5 Q$ T! r8 P: S" f  A' t
常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，$ ~* [% `* i' e& o+ j
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就是回避了大的亏损，) w$ |" m) \, S& F) _# U5 _$ A
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，8 X2 z+ m1 k1 U! q8 g, A1 Q; L- Z

+ W1 {; i' n5 N- [0 p# T! N回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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