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[lastpost] => 2809436 迈克尔·塞勒称，即使账面亏损50亿美元，该策略仍将“永远”买入比特币。（转） 1772087503 22301
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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 * S, H0 |4 \( V
余勋也不例外、 : T, x* X* F; _, J5 x( s' L3 q
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
- H0 d, { Y' h" ]# c是保经济的重要决策！
! P% w- U$ x& h9 h+ p这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 ( C% E$ w& Q( y; U5 J; z; C
低点26700-32400、 : o4 K6 g: |5 l' _7 ~
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
P* W- _9 J, Z' s- K9 n但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
+ s. I6 K. b/ Z( d大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 + W# a8 P% O8 |( m" O$ Y8 k6 Q
涨幅就已回撤过半！
( w' A+ T3 P7 y1 T; c所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
: Y; e) y: j2 j不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
o. c6 V) G1 P, S2 { i9 q其次、 1 [3 g5 F1 I5 @( \& ]
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 # [8 m$ j% D& k' m. _
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 2 y. X1 {7 C' _% |8 e0 W1 p. I
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 4 H$ B& T; w; C% l
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 ; r4 h& D3 l1 f. P9 _' D
但回到币圈、
+ W. w. a+ o3 p' a去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 * J9 v$ Y. ~5 Z+ t
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 % Q+ Q; @$ J% Q& g4 l* I6 Q# T- |
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
3 [% i7 a6 Z8 i$ Z9 A个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 g1 H' k( h+ |& P# y/ z
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
! t2 Z% u# w" r9 k% c9 Q对当前的底部、影响有限。 9 I+ ^8 S0 K. G8 K$ u) b
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
* _ a& a! t0 k# `. A" |所以27000、即是
3 F: w8 o( V4 h+ s! `) p: W去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
& M; `+ w! `# M同时还是去年放水初期低点、 * {, H6 c' ]4 y% u" d
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
/ @1 \) {) D. K8 d& B; r2 y由此得出的结论是、
9 _* j6 K F y- U' K+ S3 X) v加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 % o$ Z! `/ C& v* D: x. v, v3 p
点位不会出现太大偏离。
( h* h* T- G! L# k0 x5 P- {' m综合以上、 ) p# k! |$ G: D! F, [; ^
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 # z# D1 h. | y( [6 w6 C( I' ~
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
`) `3 P: |# U% ]) c那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 ; ^& ^# `+ _/ t& p" x
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
9 d9 e5 Q+ I( f7 c3 \那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
' b/ \. ~4 m3 {% m' r/ ^2 x即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 - {, X6 r- k0 w a& H& g" N% C- g
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 * R* I( B- `' f$ M! \& l+ d
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
- {/ n! u* u* M& N大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 5 B! b# [7 Y7 y: E5 f
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 4 R1 W ?: V: U. J1 P9 O
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 3 O1 F+ m6 n+ m
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 9 u. e* Z+ G# w; i0 c& O- a8 Q
得不偿失。 & Z5 ~' ~1 ~+ z5 ^# c
来源：金色财经 |
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