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[lastpost] => 2793643 比特币价格逼近9万美元，失业救济申请人数带来意外惊喜（转） 1767197284 jackcool1011
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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
" t" q' H% b9 I- s& R余勋也不例外、 ! N. ~4 u6 a% X- p
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 ' k* E; _" e0 h j2 C U
是保经济的重要决策！ 9 I2 d. Q' H- Z& L! V; x1 U
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 ' @6 t- s/ F" r A5 f# Q
低点26700-32400、
+ A8 v+ \1 p, i1 j$ N, y反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 " `+ g! ^5 u3 Z P
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
7 [6 B* ~. s1 ?4 T大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
; M. Z5 y/ Q4 |) g& V7 @* X涨幅就已回撤过半！
6 n! i) M4 y9 [$ s5 @; X所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
% `7 Z, Y9 v# \- Y0 ^* X$ H, V不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
1 d( m- l9 I7 s) Y其次、 6 M, ^6 ?) k5 D/ Q- X
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
$ C: k4 T- M! y* F# c. y每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 4 S) l( K6 a. j% j
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
% o$ q( c0 }7 I) h$ f美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 / A( [9 W: l; |7 l% j% s3 l
但回到币圈、
% Q5 b' x1 P/ B去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 " {9 ]7 f6 p( X
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 " l1 M1 m$ A* p' i7 A# m( |) u) O( M4 U
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
# q5 ^2 E/ x7 D* [8 e: i# W) m# E个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
. Y4 t/ q" d) A$ o2 R0 B5 m缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
" R. X, g I S. V对当前的底部、影响有限。 % w* n& x9 B* D" M; ]
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
/ G8 c) J1 @# V. K所以27000、即是
. i" J7 o4 q" U& Z去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） ( d& d' } l1 \1 }
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
) M! x" }# x$ w4 l1 M0 I也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
: B. I5 ?! u! M/ p1 Z4 B* j由此得出的结论是、
- |; ~( F3 [8 E9 j# k7 v) W4 B& q" N加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
6 g6 F( [9 q9 x点位不会出现太大偏离。 0 u$ D3 a+ N/ Y1 u+ D/ n3 Y a( Z
综合以上、 5 o2 D5 r) d: n/ M
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
% F: y# i- K* T在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
* A3 `4 u e% k* q) T' Y x那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 2 C' j0 V: l' ~. s. b0 d: X
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 2 q3 P1 F! W8 Q- }0 }- d5 O
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
1 p6 x/ c4 X# N8 T7 a! }. }4 r0 y即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
5 a0 c, T! z( W$ b美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
* B1 c7 Q5 j3 W# u! V5 l& P夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
: B$ U/ G; K. A; Y# F大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
& y' u d1 O& F" M* @# E逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
. }+ i; p7 @( ?+ R1 {. b高空需至31700-32000间布局、
0 N' i$ Z; c% ~反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 & B; }6 V0 M1 G) D9 ]1 @" u9 y1 y
得不偿失。 ( D- ^8 R6 z4 n, H) f
来源：金色财经 |
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