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小分3种情况:: p' T( D: v5 l$ b9 L1 `3 h) V" r" c
% }2 S/ t7 @/ W# r# ^' r1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。# k/ G* w, I- w
" _0 x: y; ]3 A6 f# N2 A' X# ?+ T+ b
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
- K: J4 E: B5 C4 l
6 R, Q1 r7 Z8 a. P3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。. c; ` u; K6 X! t. a
: Z8 b- o- p# l
2张牌8或9点的情况有:+ v* G9 |/ U' M
+ X5 f8 R. B1 U6 V. c6 y
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
: w; t- b6 @, O( E, y& F$ E+ U+ s8 n$ [
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415; B3 e5 e: N6 K6 j4 O
3 K1 h0 ~/ Q+ p" S
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/4159 ~: E7 D# \7 {! n5 C% W, F
- ]( m2 i8 g( y1 }" w8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/4154 v7 Z' c& r0 _ d% d% o+ j
: Q' B! y* N* b+ F8 `7 L, K
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
T9 h1 j5 ^! n& v" v8 l4 K0 g5 N
- k1 W; ?9 b$ r* E5 y$ r- b通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
. d4 L1 L6 P% H( {+ J4 o9 U' K* U0 p! @# k. H2 a+ s
那么我们可以得出
0 X% }* M! q7 H2 }0 a; h w/ F4 B1 l: O/ N
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
' J, z7 o9 z- ~3 \: t; j/ U) ~! ]
* f: p$ Q& ~( g/ C* c9 J- ?( `2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 8 L+ g6 X! K2 t0 A1 U8 B/ \0 O( Z
0 m, n. Z' C; B/ p, \$ X1 m- }
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
- a0 y# X& w3 _9 k+ o9 @# ]
! W; b8 W/ c" T% p9 k7 W7 Y7 `所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323& P# s9 C6 E {
2 W/ l+ ?% m" B9 y$ o, A1 M
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
+ L k& P6 U9 H$ e6 s. v8 y |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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