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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。8 I4 o5 K( F7 R) D% j- k
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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1 b+ F7 u) w6 U* b: \; j0 oUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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) B% C" T W6 c/ n0 [开局艰难，但历史看好牛市; O: C: f+ ]" d2 ^+ T
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。. K1 _4 J# E o5 s, y
0 V; M: o! j' d* m& S7 u6 l来源：Alphractal( B1 q/ q2 k9 @" H( N6 n, ]
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。/ o% y8 ]; \7 \! ?* R
" u8 t6 F. D3 P1 N& X事情变得有趣了
q0 W& x" M( M+ ~BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。2 [& v/ Q$ O. r& ^) C4 B( B$ S) ~
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来源：X+ ^; s% E( S H& T
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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: k; i" B- g- }5 o, m! A$ GBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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: F: u, o* z5 h+ I- o- g随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。4 j0 w- }0 k4 z& ]
% D D" q6 }9 `2 ^# Y空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
# N+ a* c ~% ^- Z经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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- }7 D& \0 T# f N来源：TradingView
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。% l1 b* U3 c9 F7 x/ Z- m2 T3 U
. \ T/ y6 k# s- @2 ?5 x Z7 t8 F# k然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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. X, w- ~ g% d5 I& }7 Z突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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