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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。6 H0 v- y8 T8 J! a3 T9 O
+ M0 ^4 e( G% g! X. [ A: u! ^: |4 Q/ v4 D# A2 j& i
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
& L/ o: u: O l5 b9 X/ C
9 H: p# X1 g; p8 u以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
# A& a- W7 L$ O, H, ?
$ c! x/ ^# I+ q2 x1 J) S2 H5 g% Y" u皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% # Q; K) l: D2 b$ ^2 ~5 B
9 P9 @, N/ _; ~; Q
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?' f5 [' B- L! v, g1 J5 t
$ M1 J, F+ @$ ~# Y# ~答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
9 B( L5 o. u; W6 C& S$ y b2 ?7 ]* ?# [/ H, ?* N# t5 T. I) x/ f
a$ u% B4 K/ D1 L
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
B% N+ x4 e% l6 A4 E/ r6 p% q d! f1 Q7 I1 W4 ^8 V3 j% A2 k
; |1 g0 d' z, Y4 B2 S盈利可能性; g) V Y1 U" r* k) X" c
5 z, Z9 U3 S2 |5 h5 Q' ?/ n) f) x! Z) f v
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
7 W, i3 e/ r' e2 d1 Y( E+ s3 x# @8 U
增值- z0 K: Q4 @/ y0 R/ u
( L5 t/ @$ Z( t许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。. o" N, d; K1 I; [8 `
5 Z2 m3 Z4 u$ Z/ O# h; L
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?3 l! T- p I% }! S
6 i+ `: w, r6 D8 O/ ~- @' j
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 * T8 @6 R7 P! T1 q# f
" v: B7 O3 f6 B: ?正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么( Z) P1 T: a l$ p
! _% O1 E2 E- l) g% [3 L
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润+ G& _- ?1 K2 ?" T4 r- x! ~* b
60%的机会你会一无所有
1 \$ S4 P3 B% K! O. n- E2 Y2 O$ Q预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 5 P9 u: o: {1 N5 L- X8 W+ E3 G7 x
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。8 z- |3 a' [, v5 [
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
4 A$ @$ c4 S- c- W) c1 X) K# T
$ x3 M8 O( c$ B3 H$ k基于增值的投注1 R5 k' _, [0 ` y
7 g9 }' T6 m) [: \+ ?凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。& |" M! J; A- }1 U1 Y7 {7 x( a+ E$ u
! L1 f) r1 c2 n1 ~" V$ \公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)2 E7 R8 T) V% Q8 F+ U9 U3 @
" Q0 M6 r* E& w* a) xA=博彩资金2 p! o/ E [7 f
P=获胜机会
2 o3 @, t: y1 V. M0 BO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
$ B3 | [( f! W5 |/ E/ O
! \2 r) \ @2 O( J首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。1 J1 K# E+ ^9 \3 Y
% z; ?# W2 E* B! ~好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
V- F* |7 g, L5 j. F& Q
1 Q( o {. }. f, y, |1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)7 V! a, ?- e8 K+ g. }& T5 L( {$ N, \
$ B8 Y1 q% |; f5 I0 Y' W, vA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)- m5 x, q+ n% n5 \/ f! D
8 H' D. O# s$ M7 n/ F0 m/ B# Y6 b
A=03 S; B+ b' W' q7 T2 s4 {* R
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
# O3 M) y: ?& \, {3 M8 b
, i- q5 U+ C2 S1 t2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
2 k+ D0 y0 f0 D$ ]9 D, q9 v# c' o- G) p A9 o% L$ y
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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* z6 T+ P5 n8 ^" zA=0.19 k2 a/ C/ c( S) F4 |
, `9 }( U4 S! G" @4 N' @) n# x结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)7 M9 Z7 D7 H+ y/ n0 G
( v; `3 M* s5 X9 VA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1). w* d/ |4 D N8 L+ ?% y2 f
% S# |1 u& f2 a/ z: U1 i7 n2 G* ^A= -0.2
$ }8 z2 b& p) U0 L3 L; @- y
. |# V6 R2 `, K. f结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好6 E: T* e7 y2 }" m3 E# ~
+ y9 B0 }) C ]第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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