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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。2 g/ U3 E1 I8 z* n2 _
( G: q+ a3 v/ |0 {/ u6 v+ B( i& _! `' t$ x8 a5 b
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率. b) K& U( ^ @ n
% n3 ~& x! g2 J+ g7 g5 _
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:# l7 f% {9 k: i% v# b
+ b6 X% ^" H8 Q# h
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 4 J* W; O. _/ X/ q( C6 `
. a, z+ T$ e" C. Z很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
; n" Z. H- ~( i2 e; d& h0 G1 k3 a, ]0 K
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
8 j, t$ _8 f/ X6 \5 X
$ p+ }) t' m6 Y2 a8 X7 ~% z
" @$ H( O3 S8 J% \& u以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
( s) Y) p* e. y! d& j7 D! r) |) L3 r$ g# F
$ }7 `9 L! X# h2 g盈利可能性, [. F4 B0 I! J
0 i( X7 B0 t+ u- q& x0 F对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
2 t' e! @& H4 \$ i$ \! s7 {' I( }" o f, e8 D9 B. p7 t
增值7 J) {4 |# u: a$ B2 Y2 E0 o
6 o- w' R) Y7 W& X许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。8 z8 T X# g8 B4 L4 b
3 K: b' a. w: l# U V$ Q! E6 Q你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
: c8 J V1 J6 l" G' a
8 p9 {6 N$ f, m* y5 ra) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
( y) |' ~# o. F8 k2 t) n' {! Y2 I$ d
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
- j, \$ ?# k+ R$ ]# O8 A& k: x. s
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润7 `8 n7 D5 c: N+ V7 \0 X
60%的机会你会一无所有
+ L7 j) E/ U7 v" _* n" a预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
) Z# n2 ^0 x3 F: O& J4 ~' K- w2 C由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
6 T2 Q5 G) O3 P
2 K# [, p F B" t% o增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
9 t% K/ J6 j. T [5 c
1 i6 C& C# b+ k2 _基于增值的投注6 x0 l( s/ O. S
) ]5 e: {1 s, Y凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
4 L6 s) d0 L P. x: M7 c) S9 w9 m2 ~& ?* a
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)" I1 B2 z; h3 y$ ~
7 J: t7 H1 A1 g2 x; s9 u" g) eA=博彩资金1 F" I* Y h- i1 w, A
P=获胜机会
+ z* j9 g2 k6 c2 _4 `O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)$ U- c& e/ B* M3 @+ N
. n. J4 s0 N! j' N6 r+ J g% {
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。# F! U% r8 {# h% A7 Z" _! v) F
6 B% f# k, I N8 M
好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。4 r- N' ~0 d! n$ c* ^7 s1 O/ O
( }* d/ f2 L) N3 X- N
1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)" V$ p1 i* e0 v0 _5 \8 o/ X5 K& I7 T4 \# V
I- Z$ ]+ [0 l! R; H! VA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5): T4 l0 H* P% \1 u
; ~; p( ?1 V ]A=03 |7 x& Z5 ?, o1 U
( ], ~, B: H# ?' s. b( K8 D结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢/ o- N$ F- H; h( `' s K; M: c0 Z9 Y
9 `, h# G% ?1 ~ n7 B3 _+ h4 p2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
! b I, `* j/ n( }
! L4 E& I4 ?# t4 I( \$ KA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
m$ ?/ {/ D+ S. t0 x; D e8 ~+ L
A=0.1
( ?4 a N- v5 e$ _. a |/ z. e+ c; \2 q1 g0 k
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
, W: I$ P0 l+ o5 m2 l& f" i3 L( J1 F1 a0 k
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)3 t" V2 q5 Q% h* v
+ u* r- E5 R2 W+ F
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
# P; U! X E" `7 {# t6 v
! X1 ^# i5 S5 r/ _( y: w& EA= -0.2 % p# R8 n. J& `. N* c/ ]- i
$ u9 j2 z; _- [" m6 f& c结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
7 c6 H% K* ~# V; B' a2 W
- l8 L/ Q1 P4 r" {/ ]第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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