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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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2 T+ B5 l  P# v. n9 a只跟踪一个联赛
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* S. L+ z2 X" K5 i: ~全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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) {: i. W) }% b5 U2 g: T偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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5 j# o. q# T& I, N0 D方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）4 Q- v* ?2 i! \1 A9 {

/ u' L! R/ ^" O7 ^  n( |3 @然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱" w9 P" k% H2 ~8 e/ w% J
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目# E$ ]: I( _, f8 D$ y% `
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7 P1 A1 D' T  I3 n! d1 w& ~  j  O亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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6 f1 D. j. T: v; f" S& k1 W& U. a但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。0 T% p3 X+ z4 D4 @- J% @3 T( }& [

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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，1 e! R/ }7 P$ @0 u
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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- G3 d) y1 u0 A! p这比买国债存银行合算。
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, P1 L1 P' Y$ g6 [& W& G4 I在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，7 ^; O. B2 e+ N' U
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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8 }/ H4 E  J8 K! j; h& x8 _# T放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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