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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑 h. X* \+ `4 d& Y& @2 [) g
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
: A( l/ g9 s2 M G/ a, a8 `
- c/ q$ E2 ~8 W9 `# X u+ e3 @G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
, |. W# K: B2 {) c3 C. S0 |什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
" F" {4 R/ j* @' f! m1 Z7 C6 T% E2 _. Z' b( L \* U: V- r
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h, Z! z" {, K' J6 o" h
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
0 e) a+ ~0 ]7 V, \6 y- {& w7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
' U7 A/ G F" e/ z做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `3 S$ _ ]( \0 ~
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
* X6 W9 E0 f9 j6 a(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
& t0 e! {7 j6 u
* u) |' V- @# M: X3 m6 j(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 , N/ d1 G6 ]% P2 I/ Y, O/ U
6 X$ v2 }0 _, U8 m8 f(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
4 z; p( t! B. E8 l( X* X3 ?0 \1 c8 n$ l; e5 Z1 V1 \' n+ O7 J( F
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 9 _" l$ h% n1 S& g
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我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 4 _! F" h1 O* z9 ]' V; _+ g
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
8 Q# I7 b5 _% G: M4 ZS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 u6 n: S; J C3 S
2 V7 |+ [) s+ W& XS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 b! s [. K" I3 N1 C
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s/ F6 M" j3 W$ D9 }" ]4 E
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 2 i1 d/ A% ?! X6 Y' [! q
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
1 B3 S5 f# v; n; R5 YS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \3 c6 T6 q3 f: ^$ m
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v6 d# \7 K* d3 ~/ g4 ]6 K! C+ k
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
?/ ~% z& H6 ]. ]6 y: q% L" B! E* [' g; q. w" Z0 z0 W' j
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l" f* F& h% t$ c: H6 e
. }/ T0 ]6 k3 |& G3 h T4 a5 f1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q3 O7 W" ^* x* ?* h& O
$ S; d3 j6 T% Z! E
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
g, Q9 i* s! I4 N: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r# z1 e7 j7 X6 J0 R
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
$ n2 u' J& Q$ q9 ?3 C1 `/ b [7 ~% L
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j5 M9 c# y, |1 m
; ]* K/ ?) k% H% tS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; & @6 v9 A: B- X9 W# C5 M) o
' z: i; J/ ?9 D2 B" {2 ^S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s3 b% ?8 h, y1 z- _
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S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 2 A. q9 ~2 W2 S0 {* {
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
2 N% |$ B1 V' \: E/ KS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
6 l% k6 j; ]& |( t9 c, Z: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~$ V" b' L& D( G H1 ~
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o8 \8 g& T* ]7 r
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" ^; q! Z; A2 Y. C好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 e% R& j% t1 `+ x! V1 m, f# o
) q( ], k9 L T& t
1 h9 E6 y `- X; U( _( ]3 V4 e7 G. k3 ~B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
d6 Q: r/ p4 T# _: t9 E
' D4 h; O. g( W: v5 h+ A! m1 ]1 MF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 $ [+ t. d5 X2 V% H3 }1 Y
" a! a# V0 [3 I. V9 m3 x于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
7 z. X/ m+ ^) o5 [; G# h$ S- u9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
& F5 H# t9 ^% t1 b5 R: UG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M0 m; M% {" i0 Z7 W. `8 b8 m- |
+ D$ n) P# X# M
- ^" g# R ~% C0 t. {: _ M, WG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
L) n# U5 j0 V2 O; ^& \8 l6 ~; X9 C, ^
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
4 m! Z1 B' g8 y0 ]* \; k' ?$ B2 C) T6 {$ t% {' @
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
/ f3 A& {% p4 n3 g3 A; l6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i" _/ x# @ f. ^( X* G3 ]
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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