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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑: P$ T3 N. P- }; T5 n5 k' p
* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c% u) L1 ] K6 l }& m" k7 b
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
2 l8 r) v6 J% ^& Z1 t8 E( O8 B, o4 p5 z$ x
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)' `/ U7 Y! m+ w; M5 W' D
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
# a5 U2 v* W( n, U: r( B, c* `$ C6 e. W* T6 U$ A! o
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h! P0 v" g1 y% ~9 I
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
9 Q; o* g( f0 J0 W2 G7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
8 g3 g; @: g5 J7 J& N: q. q/ n做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `8 S6 W* t( d m; w4 O2 w' }
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
4 n3 H+ N( ?9 s3 J6 q: \(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
$ _5 E1 ?6 w+ |. e. `4 E2 }% a( W) Y4 K* ~% z4 m
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
! l% p& r) Y8 |0 W5 t3 @4 J* G7 H& y3 P+ A
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t& j* I. i5 E* }7 }. @
5 _- i& S; E$ @. u1 I0 b+ C
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 7 p& V2 T% }) U/ W5 n$ F2 O
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
/ Y4 c: u; |4 Z; ]8 O* r我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 1 p+ T+ W+ H. j d. c# ?% _5 C! c
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c: c1 R8 ^# S, v) S% @
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
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8 i+ \4 ^0 R/ y, ]: bS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 4 P( v9 W8 C# [9 G; s1 F
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
1 o3 c8 _, J4 }- z4 x0 MS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 $ t6 {) Y3 H$ A) l' i: E7 M( u) I% h1 z
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j$ G8 i2 p, u) p
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
0 S3 d0 {' p$ B7 M; V8 |* Z9 s8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v. {' |- m& @/ j% c
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 Y, r. H9 \# n2 W1 f
% E9 b U' _' Y b1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l6 ^, c1 n# M1 i% e' |6 ^6 A: N @0 @2 L
, J' `6 v% T/ q6 H7 j% t) c
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
/ r% s, e- j2 U9 T4 d( ]
: w& t' y8 z5 c- I1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
1 l& o+ B+ R" K8 {% \: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r# I: i' T# l S0 @1 O+ L6 `, y
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
; F2 H# x! _# q2 m
% q$ }5 S! M; x类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j' |! G) F5 b/ ]2 S9 B
5 x( s; B$ _1 M9 x
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
# n; g9 T# T o4 |7 r! n9 E, b9 k+ v) ?- I" ~1 U; p) h5 _" U
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s* C4 O) ]. ~- ]0 m3 g% x9 b" {
; m' V% T, u, P% O
. A2 _( L W+ y# ]2 g. US3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 ! B* f. ]3 S& n% C( B
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a% E. `/ b" Y4 |3 o1 |, H) ^
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 % S3 Q" u9 M/ o' o% Y. q- o$ L z* T
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~3 ]/ Z3 U5 T0 u3 z+ {
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
# L1 z3 r/ O/ x! W& j" U* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
5 _' `4 `' |, r. o% y% l好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 N& d0 ~- O" S
) q( ], k9 L T& t; i3 U$ A& i" a# h9 ~8 a& E
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 ' R: F$ r. p9 M5 X, I) c; l+ a4 l
* p- g) ?( J" \2 h8 h+ r: N. j; ^0 S9 PF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
4 M3 j. P8 p% l5 l/ ]# L2 c& B; g) f& ]4 u, l6 h7 x! b
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?2 j3 Q; ?. O* i7 r0 {( z. a) \
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {+ @' {" J+ G* S P/ Q9 n
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
# L7 `$ t; i# F' q& o' K9 ~( a* Z+ D$ n) P# X# M
$ e" m! w" P" x/ X N8 ? b7 JG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 " G3 L9 C2 Q! M. N( ~3 z
! `3 i% c. H, Q0 ^5 O5 hG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
" C2 A/ g7 F+ C' e' K. v1 L! v$ z0 h% D8 }4 p1 d5 n! {0 E
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
) l$ b. E5 g; Z& h; p' V6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
! `6 t3 B- A4 t) x通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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