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[体育菠菜心得方法] 凯利指数的计算及在足彩中的运用
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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑: P$ T3 N. P- }; T5 n5 k' p
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凯利指数的计算方法:    ( O1 m2 a  L3 d; F& D  k
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G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)' `/ U7 Y! m+ w; M5 W' D
什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系?  H% P+ \' B9 l  U8 T. [
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既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!   
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8 g3 g; @: g5 J7 J& N: q. q/ n做下算术了:    2 i( y$ \  W: ~: {8 \" `8 S6 W* t( d  m; w4 O2 w' }
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4 n3 H+ N( ?9 s3 J6 q: \(1)SSP:    2.22    3.15    3.01    : `4 u/ N9 a2 y  W3 e8 }9 n
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(2)立博:    2.10    3.25    3.00   
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(3)威廉:    2.20    3.10    2.87    : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [  t& j* I. i5 E* }7 }. @
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(4)易胜博:2.25    3.10    2.95    7 p& V2 T% }) U/ W5 n$ F2 O
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/ Y4 c: u; |4 Z; ]8 O* r我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值    1 p+ T+ W+ H. j  d. c# ?% _5 C! c
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S1=2.22    B1=3.15    F1=3.01   
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8 i+ \4 ^0 R/ y, ]: bS2=2.10    B2=3.25    F2=3.00    4 P( v9 W8 C# [9 G; s1 F
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1 o3 c8 _, J4 }- z4 x0 MS3=2.20    B3=3.10    F3=2.87    $ t6 {) Y3 H$ A) l' i: E7 M( u) I% h1 z
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S4=2.25    B14=3.10    F4=2.95    ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y  G+ \
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1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01    =>    r1=0.91      Y, r. H9 \# n2 W1 f

% E9 b  U' _' Y  b1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00    =>    r2=0.90    # t0 ?( P  e* X% l6 ^, c1 n# M1 i% e' |6 ^6 A: N  @0 @2 L
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87    =>    r3=0.89    % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
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: w& t' y8 z5 c- I1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95    =>    r4=0.90   
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S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41    : W# q# m$ g# T
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% q$ }5 S! M; x类似的计算后,于是:    # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M  j' |! G) F5 b/ ]2 S9 B
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S1'=41    B1'=29    F1'=30;   
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S2'=43    B2'=28    F2'=30    3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s* C4 O) ]. ~- ]0 m3 g% x9 b" {
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. A2 _( L  W+ y# ]2 g. US3'=40    B3'=29    F3'=31    ! B* f. ]3 S& n% C( B
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S4'=40    B4'=29    F4'=31    % S3 Q" u9 M/ o' o% Y. q- o$ L  z* T
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(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了)    8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
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5 _' `4 `' |, r. o% y% l好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41      N& d0 ~- O" S
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75    ' R: F$ r. p9 M5 X, I) c; l+ a4 l

* p- g) ?( J" \2 h8 h+ r: N. j; ^0 S9 PF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5   
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于是:    / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P  E8 u9 j! |0 ?2 j3 Q; ?. O* i7 r0 {( z. a) \
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G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02    ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
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$ e" m! w" P" x/ X  N8 ?  b7 JG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56    " G3 L9 C2 Q! M. N( ~3 z

! `3 i% c. H, Q0 ^5 O5 hG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8    2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
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当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。    好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。    + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
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! `6 t3 B- A4 t) x通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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2#
数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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进来学习一下
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这个太深奥了,看不懂
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这么高深 概率论研究的很好啊
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:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
未有绑定记录
 


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