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, n2 i; r) Z+ h( c很好的文章,转发给大家看。
[欧赔最优解]& C' V" _1 _0 G+ c$ J, y- r
$ V( W8 c. A) z* j0 B( r
大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。' F) ^( q7 f% M# E8 }
有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。% G& k6 v b" l f5 a4 X* y
结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。
% {/ w( c: g8 O' g& [$ q% m- k2 v
3 E" Q$ G6 ], h ][1]0 ~) `( H% W2 y" c2 v
英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。
2 }! o' P5 A" j. @, _: `威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。5 q4 A" c- m& A, M# a+ O) l
立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。* Y- ?6 z- j* c" U! W1 u' h, H
这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。' t' D1 K$ A, Z+ t
结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。7 a9 x4 p( a" `9 p
主胜的开法:8 g! O% R( }% k/ l. P# P" X8 l- j
威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。! h1 A4 S4 b1 ~! ?5 q0 T
你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?
" O, i6 r4 O/ g1 `7 r2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。2 A" {2 A5 g! W6 E3 N* L8 G
主负:
, v* R! c$ [) ^" r3 {威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。
, r2 e; k4 O' W4 ]去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。
- C9 f. \; C2 V平局:
* h9 Z, ~7 L4 G/ M2 f. x现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。9 ]" l7 w! ]: }1 m; y+ s: [* y
5 r) V* \, u; H0 f% ~/ \ k, L
[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马
5 s' q4 z3 o/ `; ^4 b威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。& B9 g# A1 p. J0 [: Y$ A' d# b
维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。* k3 G/ X& [& G* e4 l
思维与上场一样。
4 C* L" I% x% Z0 s0 V1 e. k( O% _- v3 z- t: Q C, t" y
[3]; ]4 z7 ]1 X! u9 a P
西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。$ H+ t( z, G5 I9 h( V* X" U
威廉:1.28/4.5/8。
! Q: ^( ?; u1 B- q3 h立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。4 _$ f( ~0 `. P* }3 q: l
主队近况不佳,客队132可以。8 F& ^7 R% o" f" @ W# ?3 w+ L
广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。
, I! [) k+ ~" J. k5 W4 t6 ^主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。: D, @' J: [* {5 \* ~7 q( S
现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。
; {' A& m1 _% C7 j' E主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。# a( k$ ?2 k! y; |0 B* `( v
+ g' r- V; A O
那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?2 t& L! g T6 h8 ?1 T' T* ^2 c% R
结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。
O/ `- ?. F/ ^. k5 J( {/ U同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。
+ r& E/ J' V# b' A( T4 f3 X9 y以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。3 c- w) b- i' {/ \ V! ]( P
' y3 \2 C+ t2 w) p; j很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。) ? W/ X' W; d& E3 T& R8 M
' ?; y7 Z4 M) L6 C+ {
例如:
% ?7 s; p2 t, h8 B" m西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯9 h) v- e! v9 x2 o( P
双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。7 l, W1 }. h8 G
所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。
( z# }+ n1 l2 m4 o
# \6 J' @, f9 S" e: ^- }) |, u) W欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。
. n3 b( H8 T3 J/ k2 g8 z) H/ L0 s当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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