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很好的文章,转发给大家看。 [欧赔最优解]& R1 l; C3 B. y0 h
! t1 ]6 }, f" F6 _大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。
$ R, ?% W0 y$ @, _3 U0 W5 I$ B( Y有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。; A5 O2 {* B8 ]! ` h: [
结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。7 {; b! t# |/ w1 f5 y
# l; ]; d* E5 p9 C- s
[1]
. g2 p# p% Z$ [英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。
, ?' A7 y: P0 A0 H! b1 X) I8 ]5 y威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。
4 A6 J2 I) ]' f+ p; T$ | ]立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。. X7 d' h1 f7 n0 i5 S( [- A
这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。: D% p6 B. r% c6 i7 ^9 r
结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。
8 F. T+ q3 |# l主胜的开法:# l0 v1 I1 l& i P" i" [9 Q# y+ U
威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。
+ M/ m! h9 b# r7 i @) S; R8 Q你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?
& V6 r/ A2 a. \) i# Z5 t) A) }* N2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。
; G! t7 D' l' i7 x* t主负:
; f" W! m2 U* {9 i$ I6 N7 w威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。. M! w, t8 I9 o d) h
去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。
, ?3 E U0 }" d; \* [3 M3 r平局:
4 \' Q2 x8 B* P4 T9 n现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。
" ?: P$ s/ _% J6 G# K' H6 S3 v5 _; R* z7 N; k5 S
[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马
% S! W3 m g# j3 e8 u2 `' ]! Q威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。
9 I. M2 t8 u$ ^, K: d维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。
6 i8 p7 i! O" S9 \0 o2 g思维与上场一样。1 v6 H- O% s X, K X
0 ~' ~, G( E& S: o0 h) }! _9 t[3]
5 ]! @& }2 a5 z7 b: ^8 A& h西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。/ M7 T4 e& F2 _: Z" ^* o( k, o
威廉:1.28/4.5/8。
" Y, R; ]0 @4 i* D* D7 k" V Q立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。
" }0 L; x$ L+ t3 C. L5 O( Y9 }5 A主队近况不佳,客队132可以。6 N3 t. l8 E- r( _$ j
广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。
4 F' m( U( S( V, `' E' @主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。8 ~; m5 U- v9 j
现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。3 G) I1 G) ^* q# u
主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。. V3 ?2 W7 X- f8 M" j6 s' _0 e, C
4 [6 }1 k z7 M- z. x! y
那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?
! e" ~3 v* T% o4 ?+ ~结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。
0 u0 H7 ~) _7 P2 E4 W! q4 ^4 a i! D同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。
/ I$ ]1 T0 A9 E1 o; D. t% ~- l以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。
/ |# j8 O' E3 n- V% t
3 b, ^7 D# C& d2 W- b7 ?很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。
" x# y- W% Q" s7 H5 [7 Y5 |9 U+ f2 Q9 H! f5 w# X" {5 y% A/ f M2 W$ a
例如:5 |0 |5 P3 e ~+ ]7 T8 r
西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯8 r6 f! \% n( G# Q
双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。# Z+ L8 z( P/ }3 V7 s
所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。
& O' S7 G- W' \9 o1 w
& h$ n: |) ?0 ^' g5 P* s欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。
7 M, l0 A4 g( }/ Q6 @- A/ l& i当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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