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[虚拟币资讯] 币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、

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余勋也不例外、

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其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。

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是保经济的重要决策!

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这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、

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低点26700-32400、

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反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。

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但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、

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大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。

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涨幅就已回撤过半!

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所以暂时来看,期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。

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不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。

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其次、

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缩表大致会延续至2024年初、

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每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、

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等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。

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美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。

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但回到币圈、

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去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、

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在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。

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而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。

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个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、

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缩表虽是实质利空,但终究是缓慢的。

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对当前的底部、影响有限。

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最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。

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所以27000、即是

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去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12(加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点)

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同时还是去年放水初期低点、

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也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。

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由此得出的结论是、

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加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。

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点位不会出现太大偏离。

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综合以上、

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美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、

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在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行,逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。

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那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、

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抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏!下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。

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那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。

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即难深跌、也难大涨,直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。

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美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。

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夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。

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大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、

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逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。

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高空需至31700-32000间布局、

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反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、

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得不偿失。

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来源:金色财经

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