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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
% q4 [, \7 y# S0 ]7 u$ t* g/ K( J余勋也不例外、
5 C3 D2 D- c8 v5 V, a其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
) O7 V2 t. o( b) e; X0 A是保经济的重要决策！ & ]0 `+ x; U" V. E( t
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 + O* h5 E* D" o2 a
低点26700-32400、 4 l& X: m; u" p" k- M! R1 B2 u
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
9 V* _3 T# l. N! ~但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
/ _; ?' K& k6 H3 _1 w* Z8 g t, j" t大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 4 I! Z* }+ ~+ v" ^3 p9 L
涨幅就已回撤过半！ 8 Q5 e6 C7 B4 {. Y3 A! K5 a! V1 v
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
, R$ Z7 a- A; o不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
8 G' `, k! C, o3 Z其次、
$ U! i: @1 V' n0 o# e" [& W" q缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
8 _0 v, O8 C2 C' D2 L% f每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 % g* y+ q! V5 P+ i% W' e' q* _: A
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
" z6 W- c& K6 l9 q美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
; S% o# \. {; a, l( x6 Z) k但回到币圈、 ( \9 W3 T. b; W- k" k
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
+ Z) m9 j( [: ?9 ?4 v" f, x在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
# E+ x, q0 I4 r8 Z: t5 H( H! e1 q而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
4 x/ y7 R: F0 z- i2 N个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 4 }" `! {! f3 Y' Z
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
M/ \/ S- f+ n, v对当前的底部、影响有限。 ; Z, m+ f% W: k; |+ t2 {
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 2 y3 m( ~+ B* f; ~3 ?9 A* `9 C9 i
所以27000、即是
* \6 M% W, c1 ` R& q7 m( a( ^去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） 6 G% l8 \0 u' c2 U( y2 p# e# E
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
% s& C% R0 @: Q# w$ Y) }也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
& R i2 q p$ z; s由此得出的结论是、 ' o, a% B! l: z. \2 |
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
) J% y; N1 g$ e h点位不会出现太大偏离。 2 v8 m9 X5 Y5 B3 N7 L
综合以上、
1 |' b0 F* L6 G6 }/ k8 O) h! H美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
4 F& A" z: @) B! m% L% Q0 \- S在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 0 U0 d7 Q6 f) `, }4 J& u! `
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 $ \+ m% W( \8 b
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
5 R$ j& V$ C5 h: S那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
f! {0 I3 @# i; m, ^6 |) B即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
" U$ g, F' q' ^2 y8 j1 ]* q美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
* A6 @5 c# A8 F! [9 q% I夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 ! [% ?' s& k0 ?& j
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 " e- ?8 C8 ^0 U f7 f5 p4 r
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
+ W" ]2 W0 o- P3 D# b& c高空需至31700-32000间布局、
, Q0 |! ?$ X8 b4 g V反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
- l+ V8 ^) A2 e3 D/ ]得不偿失。 ! {* m' v! E2 w$ v0 I: R6 r" S* U
来源：金色财经 |
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