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) J) c i9 T* K9 G3 B; B加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为$ m0 P2 U" Z2 F2 e# J `! V
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，# h! @3 ~# \: q' f- R; x! | E
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。: E" {/ v0 I! O! ?
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0( F9 x Q, K& k) P9 N
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
# }6 b2 ]' X: ^Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：+ @6 I3 d0 T1 w6 S
2024年4月第四次减半
& i7 e' k) U1 d! n机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF# q& \0 M7 {, t
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)& i; w3 W, Q0 S
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
% ?/ ?6 d! d3 P% m1 V I二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
2 t& v0 F7 x% P( @6 {friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。- X$ u- t4 \4 w; V* E) U) |& m. e3 h
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠6 Z$ @+ S" w0 \5 l7 @) S; O
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。8 l9 m5 k( g$ M* Z
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
& c/ ?3 Z- o2 l. V- e$ I' d5 T除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统 @1 F5 V( m9 G! z/ \( F
金融(TradFi)产品。
$ r# B- o+ `" S- v5 ?( W如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨3 K4 ? j) b/ p$ V
链桥」的项目。
, O0 z# C* E* X7 H四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉. |: p5 m `$ v# N; U3 M6 c; Z/ O
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
9 J: t4 q" n5 H1 ]3 _) g等。
1 ^# e* m/ ]' c6 z8 I7 x! o4 rPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
5 I8 i0 w E1 y- ~, l3 }2 U在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
) L; X6 l+ b2 K9 l7 E, d: `, N五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN" A5 ] y9 S- ?/ ] v
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
7 y4 l% ]% F7 {8 X" z5 F' C9 O6 ~数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。0 u: O h1 O5 X; w4 g/ x+ v8 X. M
Pantera点名了几个项目：
2 U3 g/ d( k/ s* j8 N6 WHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图: S3 Q$ o8 C7 _3 b9 K8 F; ]
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
+ a, R6 N7 N/ r7 M6 ?/ kModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品9 g. h: S! `( O
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划8 r' Y& n5 V9 j g0 \8 I
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
* h3 A4 Z- L1 H2 H7 d! N C六、小型公链需专注特定应用$ @' \5 `5 G7 Y& H0 |* o
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚* {- j( t4 o8 p- C
至能直接与L2竞争。, t8 p1 G8 Y' @( W5 ~
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。6 j' }/ h5 I5 e6 |& L5 w* k
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
t7 x; h [+ o成为「应用链」。( j$ u' d5 f. z4 ~+ g/ G1 i9 i
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。6 R7 k. Z5 l D6 Y- `+ a
6 j j1 ?7 S+ S7 X2 u$ i! u |
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