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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
+ q* c9 R3 u- T# _ k5 f# x' D
* |0 b8 E9 \( v( h) H 平手中水,主队有利9 M# ~6 f N& J/ ?( l' ]
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
" t' p: g3 T" K6 K3 S6 A 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
! v6 _( L- {2 l# m* i 英超主队
6 y" u: E& n7 ]9 z9 y) T+ o" o9 q 胜:13场 48%
5 V2 k( |( J8 G/ X- i 平:5场 17%
% X8 K" \) @5 ~* N8 A8 [& D 负:9场 35%
; l! a* N7 q) J E& v 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。+ E$ ~. d! I' \3 B" l9 z
3 A" G8 b/ [: I2 f
一、初盘阶段
2 b$ |8 ~0 U1 c% L4 r9 R- F2 {. m 具体到水位如下:- v9 c; ]' w, L+ h- k+ C: {
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负* b" l, o2 G8 V
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
, g' A% n2 [! n* @( e: Z& f 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负6 E6 m! O' |0 d* q" _9 v& \
9 M. b% ]4 K1 y* f3 M/ K 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
: O8 D: n5 z1 w 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
% p% Z! B y4 F; X0 v& d4 @ 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。/ G: C/ a9 {: D' v
; @! N% ^6 Y- ?' D$ V
二、临场阶段
" Z! U& F+ o7 B9 x0 f; g3 S m& ^
! E4 n. R" m: V# ^. a2 y, \ 具体到变盘和水位如下:8 r! q0 ]) N; y' R) O4 x5 l* f/ `
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负9 M9 ]0 m$ J0 s4 s
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
- Z9 W- R: K# Z& ]0 X# T, i( f) h# p ! ~3 d5 V# D' @# L' U/ y6 b( Z
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。$ B( W% Z5 g P) B
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
8 Q" o0 t/ h+ p/ Q9 J5 m5 A " c" U' l3 ? d
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿; q8 I: t4 m; h
初盘:0.82平手1.04
) ~$ o1 x- [0 x 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85. B. z4 ]: }! y% w. x9 |
. O7 X4 l: v0 z" d3 A0 m o
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
, n* L; K1 l9 P& H) } 初盘:0.76平手1.10( }4 v @/ c; K( N1 ]
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91* h5 m9 Z2 Q `5 h8 C+ o% V
6 q; q a: t$ \/ [! k
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
9 t( n0 [5 I) s) i+ {5 c+ j. h 初盘:0.82平手1.04# L3 T+ e' ]& @+ e2 w; m
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98' s. D5 r" P- L0 p5 P9 \
6 L Z3 H& E2 S( i6 ^
伯恩利2-1西汉姆7 b5 S8 @# C6 Y* p4 ^7 z3 n
初盘:0.88平手0.98& |, r9 S% \% E8 k) l
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
& K7 v2 d5 J% O! x& \5 B+ y 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。% m5 v' M |7 V2 l( U0 B
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
2 [! B( t' V: h6 [3 h0 ?; x 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。, s+ q" ~) O+ c2 ~) M
3 x0 [5 P" Y. h* H 三、球队表现
. G ^. Q; h$ Z# ]; x' ~* f6 P
/ L$ e2 v9 l# F 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。8 L H$ ?( B1 E2 q' G/ w
6 e [1 f/ I: W* V3 [' t8 j+ N0 Q 四、投注要点0 o& w( ?! h* {# o* z
要点1:平手中水、主多不败
# f% c$ R: f; J$ s 要点2:平手降盘、走两头9 Y0 R8 C2 F* I
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败+ J i% A% R' h' Z
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大& l6 T$ C! u: L% B# z- O; t
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
- A# O7 d0 l' c! {. S# ~ 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
/ P% U4 }! N. B 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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