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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘. b: }4 d6 m. E& C- J2 W! @
( S1 s5 A6 Y, o; E( [5 l% } 平手中水,主队有利
. V& l2 G) ?' d; z 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。7 _% e8 f6 A% C( Y
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
; Q0 O0 c& u4 I: N9 a 英超主队
7 z1 k0 t6 v, }, i. p 胜:13场 48%% V& T; J) ]0 Y4 R3 z
平:5场 17%
/ x) R x- z; D" M 负:9场 35%
6 W$ z5 i4 I+ d# K( s 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
; Z G2 \$ O; X' K . ]% a' i$ k8 O8 ]
一、初盘阶段7 [4 Y' |: Q% Z4 ~& [
具体到水位如下:
0 H. j# u/ J/ G2 S& I 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负* \, V6 q) Q( A% x6 ~/ O
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负$ u9 C5 M, t/ ~$ ~/ k
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
% U3 z5 {5 P0 _7 E: h # w( _, h0 G3 I
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。4 n! p3 m: ]' [* P& S9 W: | C" U
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
2 i6 \6 F. Z/ r2 x5 d: A/ e4 E: [' { 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
8 o- v3 W; b$ _4 \ / }; Z0 e1 R3 v, f0 g8 p
二、临场阶段6 P2 {* f2 K& V, V7 m) L
/ s8 f2 \% L! _- T% C0 y* b- _, O 具体到变盘和水位如下:
% ]; s& A" E/ ?% j; _; ` 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
! n2 K C8 f6 s2 C 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
5 i: a/ Z4 I' ~+ ?
! q& M) [) B% s 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
/ ]8 W( f( q% @8 i; l2 A 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:+ }" J, c0 S8 V: J3 S& z
X8 m, f" a: @9 |8 r8 E6 n
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
% y7 a5 M$ ~9 l) l) _. m 初盘:0.82平手1.04
0 G3 v2 ]/ X b7 W( i 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85$ r( a$ y& n$ G5 ^7 W
) d2 _8 W9 X! `6 y5 K
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
5 P0 A% K2 B+ }# [ r* ]! j 初盘:0.76平手1.10
1 o* C! Z6 D, E6 w3 Z& k 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91( I9 ^$ v% t2 b# s% q
1 U8 W+ _: V: @. N. |$ G6 M
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
( s$ h3 x* N. K# L/ B; D6 M 初盘:0.82平手1.04
! w+ ?7 ^* }( h( j2 I* R 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98* U$ h! f8 a, U4 ~
; h4 o. k% o# N6 E& o
伯恩利2-1西汉姆7 O( D$ t6 z0 H
初盘:0.88平手0.989 C4 x+ h4 M7 m3 `
终盘:1.12平/半0.74, K, u) T+ a* J
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。2 u B3 B# O6 e+ f9 ^* Z1 ]$ H5 R8 p1 g
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。4 q9 _% e6 Y, n5 O. A
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。; {1 D2 | e7 w4 ]1 [
1 P. p2 k; ]/ _8 L, }- {
三、球队表现
4 T, i) V, M: B: N) ^' c: s7 ~/ B
* g; t0 Y% p1 ~5 ^& y4 A1 g 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。# z$ R$ j- q: ~0 O. z' u8 O
& |: A H' E0 O- M 四、投注要点/ t) Y) `+ Q( t% @# K
要点1:平手中水、主多不败2 h" c! S) i3 X; L1 E
要点2:平手降盘、走两头3 S; |& x0 X( ?3 Q/ L
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
, J: k1 v( m" M+ E9 Q4 n% j M# J' B 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大6 g' W4 M! c* \& j* [9 M v/ N4 }3 d8 s
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任. Y9 J* S3 I4 z% D8 l1 z
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
" ]* h( j& F# N0 s/ i( l7 ~9 E d% Y 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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