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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
" R5 f& L- A- H* T+ L
/ N0 O7 A6 P' m& e4 a- G会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。 |7 V8 i* m" k
2 J9 y! S* K6 n
其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
( b1 t4 ~) K5 k" x4 m( x: Y3 c3 T% Z: h x# N' t1 b% n
首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
- Q) d* O: L! c8 |+ c
. l: @% c1 m% S# T& l请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。$ X( }1 o& g8 p: T5 p8 P4 M' a. [
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
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; _' j: @5 |# T/ n+ d例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。$ t+ X- P8 G. W8 ^
% b5 n. D9 b: `7 G! {2 Z) i现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
) Q- ]0 m( h4 h5 O# W3 u
7 M: l- m* M" e. V( ~9 u+ O. M! `8 q我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
7 `* U5 q2 K! z7 q+ C5 ]0 N" g) o) @5 i8 }
玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
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; @" D/ y+ P0 ~3 X; b/ k玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
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这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。# F' d$ t* K* i
# m. e! f% I: ]
接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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: ?; R( E+ n, R) y# s2 ?- B玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。; g0 q: e7 _' W+ E7 e, o
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。' u [4 \" n6 J$ v1 V
6 X) W; r/ ]* J* Z5 \9 t# n8 B6 H* x如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。. L9 X8 D; C0 w8 g2 W4 |' v
+ q0 D' x- O/ T- r但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。+ @: k8 E! s J8 G9 K3 B
& d2 G6 ~: D& {1 g下注比例 本金结果
% `0 u/ A$ I3 i4 B |, D! l3 {0 q+ H' Y Y: E
0.1% 1.001902" `( y/ q+ e9 s. d
" I- m. q. e5 \: ?7 P7 z2 j
0.2% 1.0036060 N0 Y* [; `# p) z2 G* y
+ Y9 K8 T/ k2 d. P' n- A4 J0.3% 1.005113
3 o3 U8 @; X5 H7 a( e! G
- Y2 }/ W3 i5 N/ o0.4% 1.006421. F, p6 X& A! Q; Y& g6 ]
3 f: a$ t( d& E2 l: s2 J0.5% 1.0075287 M) _0 B. X$ F h+ E. G i0 X
; y- B' r5 B( N( ], _0.6% 1.008435* A% _! p/ m8 K2 s7 ^7 H9 T
+ S$ y0 A% b5 u. `1 u
0.7% 1.009142
# [% J( ]2 e2 _$ g+ F; q# O8 _ _6 b3 ^- `5 p" P
0.8% 1.009646' C' {" ^5 x6 N. ~) g9 l H5 w& }
: ^( o8 K% {9 o5 p4 d G0.9% 1.009949 N S1 w* C" H: S, W
9 x* R, r5 h W: E
1.0% 1.01005
7 N" U7 _/ u2 d3 w& W; o! n9 a4 C1 ^- x& F" Z4 I. O7 ]# W
1.1% 1.009949
% |3 r$ h" y% m5 f- R9 q' |$ p0 y' u2 D9 w; I
1.2% 1.009646/ ?: ~5 j* R. P) f) |" N
0 d s/ u" `: C Q1.3% 1.009142
7 |0 k& P/ r3 W- G( Y; \+ `6 ^, f$ N5 [& ?0 _$ V9 I
1.4% 1.008435
) T/ }! T6 n: F6 H% I6 R5 \ R8 \
" g. m4 R6 W9 v, t9 c* @1.5% 1.0075287 D4 O3 K% d4 R+ l! Z
( u5 h# j1 ]5 ^% @4 J
1.6% 1.00642, Q% ^% m0 {$ k. _2 K! R3 D
- C( ?! R0 V s, p+ D' n9 ]1.7% 1.005112
$ M+ o9 I; g9 O5 q: M5 M# [$ s) U& u
! h/ J0 \1 y R: h8 `' L1.8% 1.003605! O/ d5 f) ~( R2 a% C
2 L8 U" a& w! X$ L/ w! R. t
1.9% 1.0019
, a3 P, |6 ?0 R7 v& O- ]5 y1 f" W9 \, O5 n/ Q! E" m7 K+ F9 \
2.0% 0.999997
0 t. ~' n0 i2 ~) k3 M' C3 d% u) A* g/ \: K; X# M# b+ J
2.1% 0.997899
* Q5 A+ K% G8 |6 \. Y( e0 i
' B. g' X2 K, ^2.2% 0.995605
$ D; w& r2 W, g _$ {9 f! @# ~- T6 z% o4 m% I+ T; }% R+ n
2.3% 0.993118
+ h. {9 s% u! P2 @1 }2 j4 H9 Q
" H( [% s8 I- U5 e1 o- F) f2.4% 0.9904391 Q9 r3 L2 I1 P [" a
2 h8 A6 ^" t* R, J# G9 h! S) }2.5% 0.987569, ^; [( W% f r5 a
% o1 K$ v* z+ ?3 ~
2.6% 0.98451) @& _' i! H: j* a+ h' g. A
2 z+ Q" H* o# Y0 E, q1 m; `2.7% 0.981264
. X% k- _/ x/ M2 L( M4 b2 I }! U7 K" G
2.8% 0.977833
0 Z: Y0 Q& p8 F' n" N1 q- Z0 ^: c2 s* z
2.9% 0.974219
! p9 s3 Q3 q' J" g9 j4 }( a* f' w# b. z* L1 Q" ~) a7 |# H
3.0% 0.970424; w$ a4 O; s, p/ X% j
+ X) ]& h% Y" e& i8 q! N0 |
从上表可以得到一些结论:% @$ x, Y6 d! V* G( n2 X
2 ^1 {2 w& v) A6 Q- C f1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
# \7 f' A" U+ V( b1 u1 y: C2 l0 ~* o
2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
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9 U3 [7 |' s; `3 D7 K9 P8 a& M3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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* X2 X: u' \' l! q# _! Q凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。. |" o, P9 S/ G6 M7 v- m1 z( O. `
) J0 m$ d+ h+ H. |9 ?7 U以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。! u* I9 ~6 I$ ]- Q
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