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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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; U" I! L% g/ s9 ?+ |5 j4 Q但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。! I# D8 @) C$ Z# L/ I
3 |1 o/ P) y) ^( p5 Y# fUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？) r$ A4 ]7 h6 Z4 f
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市3 V$ a& O& G% Q. p4 h, m
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。3 Z2 m9 G9 d: ?: Q0 M
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来源：Alphractal
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9 c/ u& W& E7 T; ]1 @$ n15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。( Q* b7 e" E" D6 j
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。) }$ q' z- z2 E" x6 k: l; ~9 r
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事情变得有趣了
5 K, b' k/ a( b( VBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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! {, F$ `) F' Q3 }来源：X
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& f7 _! ~* V6 }! W- O根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。0 e' S9 t7 k1 N" Q
3 K6 D# [% L5 {( V正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。2 q8 x1 z3 p0 W$ o) x6 v6 z
x6 ^. z1 X& @ ^随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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7 B; }2 u' E/ D空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
" s4 ]* {! H$ k- E经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。' }+ P$ r3 H8 X7 t
% S9 u v6 u% P3 b% y# t% v$ J来源：TradingView
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。; I, R) P3 `& R, v4 r; s5 Q
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。$ N/ |- F: D4 d, _9 F. u [
* I X& J1 F% M突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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