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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率- W& H( c% Q3 a1 V% u
0 R0 y6 v. Q: E1 j/ |以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:: x8 _: i/ B4 R3 x9 i* o/ \
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% . b! L" Y Z$ }, [2 n
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?( f& R+ w$ f& G; Z/ c1 A
* s. u! A4 }9 b: C6 C' P+ {. x
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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: f; G# g. u: A: a盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。: `2 T( V8 D8 w
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。8 h: C3 B5 n6 x ]' s, S
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?4 U2 h& O( w- _9 Q- C5 i7 u
0 _ ~0 p4 S. e$ xa) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 ) @+ X8 x' B' }* P
$ Y: n# H$ @: R6 w正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么; f9 n4 s2 l( [8 q% Z) Q
4 ^" H' b, W4 V* l( Y40%的机会你会收到150元的利润) J2 C, { @8 ~6 H
60%的机会你会一无所有. Z# j: a2 z: i! f, M
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 ' P# R' O3 ^5 _) B
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。/ ~5 R' H1 N; r* |; w/ e
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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7 J1 C( e( x. B5 D) _3 ?基于增值的投注. m! E" t9 E0 V# x4 ?; C+ z
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金% ?3 K1 s( B4 H( p* M
P=获胜机会0 Y. q; D4 t% s0 G6 v
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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7 j% i7 t9 R. F' \好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。5 z- M9 \) w' l' ~8 p. L
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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4 M. w# o) `) f5 K) F8 @. y" ~A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)0 l/ P9 Y' z# Z7 @* U
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A=04 J1 l5 L+ p6 c) s5 w; C( Z
3 I/ v) D+ Q1 m结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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& ?, H$ D9 u! x. O; L2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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9 ~" N7 D. M" ?, \/ i5 k z" F9 l- RA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)2 ^- A5 l- X1 a$ N2 x
! b: l% k0 ?# b. B$ LA=0.1, K1 [* [' W s/ g \2 `1 @+ B
* x8 f' L# Q# ^结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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% z* u. q/ U8 Q' a% b2 }3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2) }; d5 Z! A! }* ]3 r& \
5 Q$ L% ]3 f+ U: L9 `1 D, y) qA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)2 B' p1 f) w- j1 u1 p6 ]
! n6 a3 T! B9 ?& F4 uA= -0.2 : J2 R! n3 p% i" H8 H$ [
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好% j4 Q9 t& Q+ ^- N$ }) {
3 d) M' p4 w/ Y/ R2 Q; }第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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