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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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0 f% z1 H1 l+ F2 i西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率0 \: Z, w7 k- T3 r
3 U5 r( {/ Z9 P8 H+ X$ d! E6 E  i8 B
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:- o9 |* v& v9 S, ]

: Z) @! d! W( u& X1 U" x3 g2 O! J皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 0 }1 t* W! J5 H# m6 h2 K( l& o

' o3 |  ], I6 `9 E# [很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?; x* {& ~0 F/ q0 o2 z& ]  f/ j
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)2 f- A6 n, y$ G% j3 E1 z
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. k5 }- a5 F; C2 t( B4 _以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?- B. U$ b; I: y% T5 W( G
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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。# j- j' \$ Y6 s' n' r

" ^3 A' r* \1 X& c. O/ Q* T5 ~* |增值* R$ _! @8 L3 Y6 [" _+ O

0 I8 r2 Q) W" l( K4 E9 t' D7 T许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。$ P7 v+ L  [" y/ d( S$ R% A6 x3 S9 h& P

+ o) ^  ^7 o- ^" Z* H4 C你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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' X4 D: `" {  x正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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- M, ^0 b) S& ]$ Z; p40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
6 j; Y! m8 G5 q+ Q2 x0 o6 }; s60%的机会你会一无所有2 V, J* N7 h4 U" C6 c' q8 v; ~1 i/ y
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0   `  |2 d* Z! I7 q$ k: c8 K
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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/ L/ \! k2 s1 L; u$ m% w增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注! M4 \4 ?8 [) \# m+ y
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。8 E9 m. |: |' v& |/ X
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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4 T; W# u- }, C. w2 P, cA=博彩资金
+ r9 k: I5 I, Q/ {' H9 p# YP=获胜机会: n+ C/ `# P; Y2 Y  k# Z2 J$ ^+ Y
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)# o$ e* Z3 ]8 G/ J3 V

1 \1 A/ h9 L/ D0 r! a9 v, D3 {9 ?  F首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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# l! O- G% C9 H! v+ C好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。; Q: \5 p: D% j; [: w! e9 U

6 V$ p4 t, {7 @4 n4 O1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)2 B. I, X% \+ T/ \" m! O. U) H3 u3 F

' Q# R: W& N, y! k6 h, y+ O+ @A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)7 x* s/ G$ c6 v9 x+ ?: v
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A=01 R+ t5 z6 _0 E, ~
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)2 u2 a; k% h" B- x

2 O/ }) ?! Z8 Q; m' Q7 U7 b9 ZA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1% l# F  h1 H. l/ T' V

) E4 L: l7 W5 Y7 f. K结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)# J; N8 b' s; A& O

( ~. E4 {8 N" U! I: @A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)- e: p# c" S& g' H# }+ H
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A= -0.2 ! }$ k! a/ d$ I# O4 f
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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( L) }* x/ E) S第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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