Array
(
[fid] => 6728
[description] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!
[password] =>
[icon] => 7c/common_6728_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[digest] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 0
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 1
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 3
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 加精华
[action] => digest
[fids] => 6966,6903,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] => 1)发布主题帖+1经验+1活跃币,回贴+10华小分
2)Lv.1及其以上级别会员可以发布主题帖,Lv.1及其以上会员可以回帖
4)转帖请在主题上标明
5)禁止发布与本版块无关的主题(违反,帖子转移到相关版块,并扣50经验)
6)禁止回复与主题无关的帖子(违反,帖子删除,并扣10经验)
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[137] => 体育菠菜玩法规则
[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
[139] => 体育菠菜问题咨询
)
[icons] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 81 83 84 87 89 90 91 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 92
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] => 足球,篮球,体育,规则,打法
[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[sort] => 0
[orderby] => 2
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 5
[imagewidth] => 200
[imageheight] => 150
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 900
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6831
[type] => forum
[name] => 体育知识讲座
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 5
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 2735
[posts] => 23139
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 113
[oldrank] => 113
[lastpost] => 125127 升降盘理论 1741350473 france89
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 1
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 271 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
) v' g: n# Z# N: S/ D5 A
2 `+ M: r' G% ?) l2 f* j0 l
0 f% z1 H1 l+ F2 i西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率0 \: Z, w7 k- T3 r
3 U5 r( {/ Z9 P8 H+ X$ d! E6 E i8 B
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:- o9 |* v& v9 S, ]
: Z) @! d! W( u& X1 U" x3 g2 O! J皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 0 }1 t* W! J5 H# m6 h2 K( l& o
' o3 | ], I6 `9 E# [很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?; x* {& ~0 F/ q0 o2 z& ] f/ j
N, T% v& v1 d7 T
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)2 f- A6 n, y$ G% j3 E1 z
1 _# ^$ c i3 {# F$ N: }, m; c1 B
. k5 }- a5 F; C2 t( B4 _以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?- B. U$ b; I: y% T5 W( G
5 o7 ^2 B/ ]$ I) k' V5 W& p+ M) S
7 Q% I, h4 M6 g
盈利可能性
) e3 @2 b$ f% {$ _7 X' P5 g: [7 R8 K0 i! z
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。# j- j' \$ Y6 s' n' r
" ^3 A' r* \1 X& c. O/ Q* T5 ~* |增值* R$ _! @8 L3 Y6 [" _+ O
0 I8 r2 Q) W" l( K4 E9 t' D7 T许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。$ P7 v+ L [" y/ d( S$ R% A6 x3 S9 h& P
+ o) ^ ^7 o- ^" Z* H4 C你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
2 C& g. d1 a7 R3 c0 x2 G# G6 |" W. Z+ p8 g1 L+ G" B
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
8 M; J& ~4 x2 }3 v# R) t# u
' X4 D: `" { x正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
8 O `+ i9 _$ u- u* `
- M, ^0 b) S& ]$ Z; p40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
6 j; Y! m8 G5 q+ Q2 x0 o6 }; s60%的机会你会一无所有2 V, J* N7 h4 U" C6 c' q8 v; ~1 i/ y
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 ` |2 d* Z! I7 q$ k: c8 K
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
% i# F3 k8 ~4 p j Y Q/ g
/ L/ \! k2 s1 L; u$ m% w增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
, V+ |& O& ~+ ]% C5 k/ Z- [! y! Q* h8 j9 V0 _8 J, u9 C, ]) H
基于增值的投注! M4 \4 ?8 [) \# m+ y
5 j" a% ^. n2 `- v/ d
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。8 E9 m. |: |' v& |/ X
5 K* _8 V+ A- T" |) N: B2 s
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
4 E3 t# Y0 x, j1 ]
4 T; W# u- }, C. w2 P, cA=博彩资金
+ r9 k: I5 I, Q/ {' H9 p# YP=获胜机会: n+ C/ `# P; Y2 Y k# Z2 J$ ^+ Y
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)# o$ e* Z3 ]8 G/ J3 V
1 \1 A/ h9 L/ D0 r! a9 v, D3 {9 ? F首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
: ^2 ]9 q# s) W5 m- q3 c' X/ L
# l! O- G% C9 H! v+ C好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。; Q: \5 p: D% j; [: w! e9 U
6 V$ p4 t, {7 @4 n4 O1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)2 B. I, X% \+ T/ \" m! O. U) H3 u3 F
' Q# R: W& N, y! k6 h, y+ O+ @A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)7 x* s/ G$ c6 v9 x+ ?: v
5 R0 H8 v4 G; J4 q) Y3 ^5 ]: G
A=01 R+ t5 z6 _0 E, ~
/ k, f" Z& r, w- y* ]% j* _
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
, _4 Y, X) N+ c) v6 t+ G( g) p g o$ Z0 ]- a; a% N
2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)2 u2 a; k% h" B- x
2 O/ }) ?! Z8 Q; m' Q7 U7 b9 ZA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
2 S0 f7 n9 l/ j0 @* O" F( C( K- r: {5 B- c" x. L
A=0.1% l# F h1 H. l/ T' V
) E4 L: l7 W5 Y7 f. K结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
/ O6 C- ?) b; V" f5 F' T6 L: Y% _, e1 o- w& j" A. v5 g. V
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)# J; N8 b' s; A& O
( ~. E4 {8 N" U! I: @A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)- e: p# c" S& g' H# }+ H
4 ?% C) s% f# ]8 Y4 a5 W2 J+ X4 a
A= -0.2 ! }$ k! a/ d$ I# O4 f
+ L% k$ j8 b3 n a
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
`7 r5 \% T! A% F" W0 a* k. U* ~- \
( L) }* x/ E) S第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 968 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 800 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 7136 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4235 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|