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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


% j0 R- s" c8 V賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
* h  e% i+ D. T10A23456789
+ g  U/ p% A9 m. u" [' p% A% M& S' A-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159
2 {# R" i8 D  c1 n, F4 \: U. e: X8 S! N" H-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.1463 s) G* R+ F5 ]
-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.1330 {/ n8 o& }; o! T+ e/ t( s- t
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
4 r9 M1 v. m! Z# F-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108! `% Q5 A0 |) r. f0 O. d8 b+ g
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.0968 G4 _) B: O# Z! h7 X" x% [) m
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
( V" \# d7 P! p7 H7 _-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074+ J  {( s' J3 \$ |. Y
0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
* u' @8 E) O. x* D6 n1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
7 U; H9 B, q& I9 D0 z2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
6 u! U0 d4 a4 z1 O( O  A. s3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
6 l( a* s# N1 q' `: j+ k* [9 N4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
# Q- B0 G0 ~& ^" `5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
; d. q, n% Z! f% _* g6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
% }. a+ q2 z) u  C& U7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
7 ?, }8 [1 r- `6 ]) ?8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001/ O0 K- j. L1 @3 C! o* L. O
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996% e& a8 n# n) p1 w; t. S; c; T
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.9923 Y: e( G# \5 @9 r# i
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
" ]' J9 w0 Y: e12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
* B8 w0 ?4 M' a/ Z: B5 P; i13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982% J$ z  G+ V( `0 x5 x5 P
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980
, f3 F3 o7 ]. a( l( r& H1 _" g15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.9799 m9 r0 d9 \8 H6 }# H3 @% `& y9 U  t# P
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.9794 q/ T( G/ i" s; l) o
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
, ^5 X- s1 Q1 C- D; F18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.9798 u$ U+ H* @" ]
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
7 R1 y' A2 C1 U4 H. Z+ K  C20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
9 f  Q+ ]; e& W8 P0 @21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986
  V; q, ^8 m. H" ~22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.9890 D2 n+ T7 r- F4 w0 i7 M, h: G8 `0 h6 D
23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
2 N" u2 `+ M  [24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
1 Q" e0 D2 p1 y25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002  `5 w& Y3 \6 x

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。

6 w2 D# Z% f' \+ e" T1 M# H; n
表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類3 e: S& g2 @2 I0 y! L$ z# l% ^0 u
10A23456789% R$ z* H0 Q* p  F0 K
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095' d1 d- o  V- T$ m  G
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082+ G- R$ V6 U' i: X8 `. ^+ s
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069
; B# }6 O; w, K4 \& f3 P-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056
/ D3 n  L5 S1 ^. [& S-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044. W) S% a% B. X5 M
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032* m! a( y+ D2 k4 m
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
/ c' J( P1 Y. _- }. Y. D# i-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.0103 P2 U# A0 [5 u$ @- w
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
  T1 b2 K* R2 r" }! K7 x% G6 }1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.0109 w* V+ F' U6 z
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
; B* B5 O2 j& c7 O3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028  k6 g) {, {: g0 Y/ N
4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036
/ r: r; b0 m& i+ [! \) l5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
9 t! `, V7 S4 [4 \( b3 j  G6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.0514 M/ H/ c! ?2 h+ h. x- Y: W% V% a. M
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057
4 o2 n8 C' r: |( m+ R5 ]3 K2 T8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063+ G( Z& ^) B9 k+ {( Q$ A
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068* b1 O. v8 V( q  \  C* t6 b8 G6 O# v6 ~
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
- B' l2 v. M0 g% z* `11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
! y2 T! ]! z" a12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
2 q4 q/ Y1 e8 d1 I; c+ U* N: ~2 i13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.0822 n1 P5 f! B( d9 f! _
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
. }; S* g6 k, A* R+ k15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
* p7 |, ^9 J' J1 R% l, x) @16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
% e2 H, J4 G6 w, i# l) ^17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085' f8 K" }+ Q0 p4 \* ~( L
18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
/ }9 X% H- l8 S% a1 M( X4 m19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083  C% \6 \9 {' Z* c) q" ]
20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
* h1 w6 w( z. l9 x" o21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078+ I$ N! L! c2 @$ Z% I; N
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
, N. O8 Z+ U2 A$ _1 }2 d7 f23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071$ y9 o: c, l+ k! |5 g, C
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
" |. s! w3 ~! p: T8 U) Q( R25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
- T" o8 c' T6 U3 g8 {% G

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

1 v/ i( ~, K9 p; G+ H/ k; ?) L$ Z- C
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
5 ~& b! y/ o& t4 f0 y8 s5 W/ {10A23456789
, S! o  n1 q  o4 k% ]-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
, d7 ~1 [1 ?5 S( z- |! n; T  l-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
7 R& {. D. K# [-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
/ L8 t+ W- w5 m% d-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166
; Y3 e# P) D# f3 [" j4 {) z8 f: o* \-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
' Y6 E3 M- X/ q# N' L-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193* Y: F5 R% g; ~. C- b8 s
-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
2 t* s4 F; P1 _6 r-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217+ u% g* Y$ g4 y2 o, K1 H- [
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.2284 l& B. e  [. j* m, [0 M  y: q
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
, B& p  ^& g# K# _2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.2496 s: n) P- l! U
3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258
8 `) k* z) g2 c# t2 d- i  H, T5 T% q! J4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
& V2 n( K- x- V) `5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274% \1 U+ T- J+ i1 t' T' |/ q, Q+ L
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281
; t+ A1 T4 S5 s. L/ z7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287# P) y( _. O0 l: `4 E
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293. O4 \' F8 h- v. q9 S
9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
% S* L- u: B3 S# e8 C. E10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.3023 n2 O7 H7 y% ~) U: z$ O
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306* C/ Y6 U, Q6 T# A: _& m
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308# O! m- p' n! n  G. r
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.3107 X9 J( \# z* Q
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
& y: i! H( v4 n/ ^  B15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311% M% c$ X; Z" O7 ~
16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.3118 D- F$ F* |0 p# A* _
17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310- K1 u/ v; c! ?8 J# H
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
& E9 j  a: W' k# [, R1 A19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
" I, j) `. p4 F  n; q( r3 ?/ w20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
+ U: ~9 S1 p. r) Y5 v21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297, _/ s& W  P$ \2 k
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
4 }* c% h# l. h8 }2 Y$ P23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
2 W, I, J$ i5 n4 U. z. R7 r2 v2 S24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279- r8 e$ {. b# C3 Q3 v; x7 Y$ H
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272* X4 L9 k2 c/ u) g$ O

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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