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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


& Q4 v4 o% p* E8 o( U& J賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
/ G- V/ J! z8 t* v( P10A23456789
, a$ @9 ?. g+ D1 W, f& X( T2 |. n3 f-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.1599 f9 Z/ R0 {3 }& y7 v; |
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
9 T$ k( y: w" c# u-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
3 I+ J6 Z7 P6 j1 u, P4 D% W-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
$ C! d, i' u( ]% w-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108. u% `; H3 ~9 s! X' h$ k0 Q1 q' L
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096, n: a4 Y; g# U1 v
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
. F! Y6 \, g; g( }-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074* S) X0 _5 W" |
0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.0646 g7 i0 U' U' ]- g
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054- q+ t3 U$ h0 U/ O& V. S
2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
& m% _6 a5 y" B- ]3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.0368 g: Z1 N- H5 U# o0 n' q
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
  i, N% f1 _* d9 e4 L5 E5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020- b0 A& f/ L; d- J: s9 m
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
8 @. g+ O& z* n+ l- n6 R5 R7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.0077 ?+ r  i* a3 Q3 \& v
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001# Y$ s) X8 j  l" x9 \
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996+ C% P" o$ y9 `2 H
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992$ ?  b0 r+ D+ U: [+ z4 `
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
& V" M" I2 C) z12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985+ _# U, y* I0 m+ E
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
. I, i1 m# A4 z  B$ T14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980
* m  a0 E& r2 b4 ^; L8 ?2 m15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.9791 {8 x9 d# R  M
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979
, g7 p2 @. Q9 K17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
- t  T9 o7 |) x; b8 D* |% j18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979
3 N$ _, U$ ^7 B9 m9 o3 d. u19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.9818 M8 ]4 L& w4 T% |- `, W7 u) r
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.9839 _. t( A% Q  y3 d8 h* P
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986
4 y1 e0 R! a$ Z1 e# L& {% }( ?22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
- p" o$ i6 x' Y, y, r5 }1 Z0 T" W! q23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
' ?# R) p0 ^! {8 e24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997" |; c/ o7 _: t8 o% [
25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002, f4 m1 u2 d" a" c

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


6 X9 l. J% k  v6 ^' s表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類8 R- p* Q2 K: A& ~- d1 q
10A23456789
- L% |5 g/ ~4 \1 b* y-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095# k7 L& {& L: Q8 h
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.0825 o8 S! D& M. t7 f1 ^) i
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.0692 B- O* N& r+ D6 j% R. e, J6 c% U
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056
2 a, d# r9 f% R; V% h' K. `. R-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044( E/ t! A- ]$ g! f) ^8 V# `
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
/ A. C9 ?2 e# W: `! m3 m3 c-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.0210 j4 F5 Q" ]4 p$ \
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010$ j+ V  }2 ~  \" c0 k) Z2 t  N! [0 x
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
) n, ]6 ~$ x3 E7 ?* a8 r/ ]7 N1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
* L  _3 ~, P3 |) J2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.0191 n4 _8 y5 @7 N  \; d4 U, s; u0 D
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
, x/ m& k# F* ]+ i# T- I5 w" N# V4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036
4 o  ?- X8 d  O4 Q! E2 {5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
" n' q2 }) c3 r$ m+ m" m, F7 ~6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
; G$ S/ C+ s# }, o. D4 l7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057
* T( i( l+ J3 {" U7 P8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063
" M& f, X+ h" M' g7 G# b6 X9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068
2 U+ f! @/ g1 a# x* I# Y10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
; f+ @7 h; F9 Z) N4 K5 P11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
! p# X- d: f$ T, M; j. g; x12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
$ F4 ?* S) \* x; S6 U. M4 w6 T13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082! B; C6 B7 t) u) M# ~. Q
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084! \4 b; g$ F5 n% G# \( y8 r
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.0850 U6 V5 [. q, t. ]* m( b
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
; z3 ]' G6 w; ]# Y- F17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
  k7 y! d" ]/ ]+ [18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085/ {8 v: t$ S4 _* x/ T3 \
19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083* `( i2 _! K% C7 |
20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.0817 i# \. W* d: c* F5 y: t
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
( T4 z8 k/ C; Q. Q) s$ X22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.0758 c- y0 J7 O6 }
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071( ?3 c3 I; m9 }9 S5 H# T
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
7 X& T$ M+ F8 z: J3 P25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
' c9 o  D+ C# w& q9 r1 r

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。


- K0 G( `9 Y) v4 a押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類4 m% R5 Z! k8 z  }
10A23456789
: p" h6 w) |8 `  T5 b$ d7 \, V-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
5 A3 d+ I0 S' I6 L3 e( P1 P-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
$ f4 }4 F( k! U7 ?# w-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152# n2 s7 H7 [) `" _
-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166! a9 A( d( y9 [3 z- l
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180/ {" p! v2 b6 f- R% @& @" g
-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
: T1 f1 `; Y; k-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
& Z' Z+ `5 D1 l+ U! i  m2 x3 M9 Y* Y-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217$ k- ?5 s5 T6 X# a0 X. X
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.2285 s+ p9 P+ Q# @7 A: Q
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239) Q  O$ w% d6 t6 B0 q1 o2 x! [
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
* E$ q/ O- c$ f8 W5 w. e1 c# S$ B3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258
! _& [/ U5 E0 A4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
: q! a! j2 p; ]$ P. X2 T0 U5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274
) i/ A! c8 M4 V  e- n( i6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281
1 Z. D- |$ y- ?" B/ ]7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
8 _' E6 u# N/ K7 f% I! O8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.2937 y1 u3 R2 [/ C, n6 @$ ^, u: ~
9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298$ k5 O+ v9 u2 }' K
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.3020 i" v% R1 z. N7 x6 N4 f
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.3064 o- V( Q$ }' F# ?+ H) g
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308* Z/ \, Z# b7 G
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.3105 r* O. d4 k1 Z
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
- s% r4 t; [8 t+ y15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311' Y; z3 `% v1 O3 r  _6 j
16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
8 T1 Z5 C' I9 M. l- ^17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
. l. ?% D" c. S( O- r5 `18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
  {" O4 v& ^( `2 h# \  j19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
2 ~8 y& b6 }. D: e20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
# Z4 y  x& f/ J: ]  ]: m21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297* ]0 h+ \% V+ _4 d3 u0 y
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.2929 D+ L2 \( i" v6 {0 L; T0 V
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286* l! B1 u8 ~* `. i& j
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.2795 `+ J4 c$ |* n2 S
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272  m4 r, i8 o8 ^  t

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
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:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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