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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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$ a0 g: @4 N4 T' K5 z$ G' |; B只跟踪一个联赛& I) @8 n1 h( w
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。9 }- J5 c% F3 l4 B7 {1 r3 Q! t: j- v
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，& O8 l- d. ^' E: Y5 x
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱  D1 K" ^1 L" k* `" C: D* f( m' A
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目5 n! b2 z" j/ G

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/ E2 X; }% O2 E' f" F/ b' p3 V亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，1 L; s3 u, g% A: m% r# n

: K+ c( _$ F9 h+ t; l& U5 a而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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6 a$ v+ f5 s. e1 [但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。( w2 Y% f1 P; ^! q
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。  I7 q5 P# D2 k

. U0 a9 R8 F1 \( ^+ `# L' w' p排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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* V9 K/ Z: t  e) d这比买国债存银行合算。( M2 f8 T* v! s4 H6 @, J% K

2 C- ?  r1 t( H7 K$ N* F% M& c2 ~在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，: {7 o. i/ _/ h: B1 l
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。% A1 L/ I5 I0 \7 Y0 I( n% ~- f

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% G# p. E0 c6 A: o1 H常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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1 p/ Z( f' U) {放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，1 g; z& D/ V5 }* [) k

$ B5 v, @/ z3 U. ^+ O" `就是回避了大的亏损，: T" F$ s6 X9 Q5 Y$ @
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，4 {+ a$ A+ }' a, t9 t, z
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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