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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 1 M' [! l& k8 A# m9 u) @
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只跟踪一个联赛4 k6 D7 T$ {( Y* F

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1 o. _$ O2 u! y) S全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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7 R& i$ l3 k( H5 O( F偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。, W  s" f. v8 _9 Y: y) Y' r+ }( t

; o) f- i+ q2 ]5 X& [) `4 H$ z方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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, F  ~  I: x# F# g当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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- ^4 v; X) |& o/ g+ p$ B2 {7 @5 m亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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" Q" n) [+ _3 R而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，. x! Q% J6 V' a! t8 x  F. Y& M
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。7 g$ t; K* J/ M" Y9 C5 ]/ u2 A; ~/ V
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，+ _" Y* |4 }, O: G

/ D( t1 M6 t8 S但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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! s# c/ i$ U& U' [这比买国债存银行合算。* T0 a3 S  q& A3 G4 q

3 O9 m8 ^9 k% \8 F8 d$ j在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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. o8 S6 `' I5 u  x% l/ f几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。& b# z! o) ?! }0 O8 I

5 z( ^. U' t  S放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，3 {& T( f4 P1 I, S: O5 ]/ J
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就是回避了大的亏损，1 j; x, t* D9 D0 I
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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  m! L# Y# q- S9 `# T* f5 {( ?  h回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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