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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 & P8 S  I, t5 N7 `4 k
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只跟踪一个联赛# i; }. i! B7 ?5 |# k$ |5 P. y
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& ~( M' ]5 t4 o# [0 ~3 q: Z全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔  I) J3 d7 f: q( i

& Z3 ^+ f4 m* I三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。& i  ?$ L+ R' f* ^8 A% z- Y
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目. S7 r& ^- q* p2 ?" Z

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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，- \& D$ N) Z; i2 w9 B/ h; W7 ]9 W
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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  F$ o" G: a  |1 F8 W+ t但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。+ R9 A7 v7 A6 v( R, H0 z2 @

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: C& a) R2 D' n理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。" Y. w3 ~5 [; r0 I, M* k4 s1 m

2 T0 r8 ^$ V/ I/ ^排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，' |) i( A9 i, e$ Q3 w* T
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，4 a' w- U( x8 |8 \$ h
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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1 n4 l. d" r8 I/ M" J& m在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，# a5 [% b( w9 e% w6 }) ^

" \, @( g% t+ T" s% s% u8 y# L几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。8 s4 l( Q& ~  ]2 o' z
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4 {2 z0 s# _, \  m常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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8 b: b9 o# _8 c/ \就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，- e3 N( F! `  v8 R; S, ~7 y
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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