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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑' W6 I% o2 M( [2 x5 r3 @$ C7 }7 \
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
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G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)9 S' r4 t6 C9 ~7 y* C+ P1 D
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [# H1 R( E1 k" C7 G
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0 A1 p4 @! g( F+ ~- e既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
9 f- r% T, i# {: n1 m7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s3 V `2 S- `; F0 O, d! x
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
~" X6 }$ W4 l' I5 X# ]0 x; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
' s' R! v8 \1 [$ x A(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
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# p% U& j: [ H/ d4 Z: b% g(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
* n; h. i) l' j( I* x& w2 [; e* t; w, C3 T+ g9 X
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
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(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 ) I7 B5 r( Y X& H" _+ M, t
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# B& P+ m' c) [5 d6 H$ o7 m0 r0 j9 M我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
6 Z3 `' _ M! W6 u7 i% W: ?! O6 E5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c1 H( i( G3 ^5 N/ v4 t9 A) f
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 9 S3 i# U' Y d" \
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S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 " } Z& q& \) j4 Q7 ~
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5 z4 T8 h, I! G" K3 A* _8 ]S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
5 e+ y" X. R4 G9 f( T, e9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j) q8 ?0 F" k/ S s
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
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1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 . L, R4 a0 J- K3 c5 v2 D! Y
( F' ]! S! u7 R: S, `6 D3 G1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l+ c" V1 ?5 d, U$ N$ O* w
) k! Y ^; ?& A/ m; \2 G) M0 o( S( l1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
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1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 9 t( C* g. x9 Q& [/ }1 \
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! p% o" z% ^$ Z: r+ k3 fS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
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类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j3 O# P; j, {* E8 S
3 M$ f# e, B7 \2 w ~S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
$ L S( R f7 a
7 c! Z7 @; o5 q7 B+ R5 t8 N- `S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s3 I8 k" D8 H7 P7 E- C) k4 m
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1 T! d! u+ y# [9 Y: M* bS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 & m k* C# f/ l
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S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 / X0 v4 N/ H H0 Y5 N9 g
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
' L" u2 F; a& n(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o9 O1 [8 m- J% _4 N
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( p7 C+ `/ I9 C好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 5 G |) b, g( u8 q/ i8 D
. J4 X0 [3 f$ Q9 }. r3 U+ s# xF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 0 F2 i* U0 M: W E, g6 r
5 r3 }5 u4 n3 ~: y; a" Y1 r7 z
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
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G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M+ i2 u2 Y y/ W! z6 k8 n% T
+ D$ n) P# X# M
( o( L3 P8 b8 X6 NG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
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4 q0 j- W4 \8 EG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]8 a, x# a d: }9 H( k
( N' i3 ^) _; q! E: d当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
% Z; q! `; o# M6 x" H6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
( c+ C6 h3 D4 g7 b+ m通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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