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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
0 @0 C! G- k; q, u+ ^. c6 B* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
& s! t* x# N, y: H- c凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k; l" V' W1 _/ ?2 t' ^
2 K: {/ F4 d* v! D
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
8 `! i" J5 J2 l' [ S. h% s什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
* ]( z+ {% ~) P
1 {$ ^ @$ D* Y/ I, O& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
i+ V7 Y3 \3 [- D2 B" y% e/ W既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 5 Z: v k" k0 O" t6 r! m
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s4 [' g& Q) |- u+ A! U
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `1 O/ ]4 {; A+ K6 ` g, d
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d {2 G( s0 b3 G9 E
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
4 B/ K7 R; w8 ] r4 M( _# M, L( Y. L; m3 M* x5 @1 A3 O* p8 f Z0 c" I
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 9 Z6 g% v$ G: d% Z
: t# M1 `; i, }6 r(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t" w+ m. B1 X) s
8 z K) M& e' E! x3 ^+ c+ P3 V) v(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
) k. v8 [' X4 N: [" Y' U; ?) j- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _; j% _3 n* y, a8 `$ D& W$ p
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
7 a( a" j" M: w- k2 s5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c8 r/ U' T) d' \
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 0 L5 A$ _, H" t8 G- I' p3 N: E
1 f4 ^' S% ?$ c3 ^( e% n/ Z% iS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
! O$ e6 j& a0 ~% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
! j. O$ [4 r- p% C+ n. O4 F6 B5 yS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
& K1 V) V F$ [' J! Z% Y9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j2 ~% I0 t, A/ |$ p8 S# ^
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \; V* O# M8 H u4 {5 a5 Q* p
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
6 `9 c3 c0 l5 H1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
" P2 ?% R* t& `5 i: }
- ]* E" F- V, g1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
$ E$ |& i+ A; R% r3 t% u# z9 U( ~7 d0 x3 F4 S0 \
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q, y6 B) \; P |- U
" J$ P- E% X$ u: ] `0 D' l
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 2 d. j+ f. }1 N1 H, G+ B; [
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r; g! q7 E' {6 P
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T( L a' i3 Q" V! J2 z2 h' m
/ V6 j6 y3 _: X; P) Q, q$ g类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j5 j* w! ~2 U2 t: j( r3 i
) c5 n- [ P8 V( J; `S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
8 c/ }; e' K8 J2 ]6 z* ~4 Z4 L K) B4 G
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
5 G2 |0 R4 e8 [! W# T& N& \( W/ W; m' V% T, u, P% O0 e. \4 w4 {' Z, F Y! R0 Y$ n
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
0 x! B- C! o4 a; Q0 B1 w! A6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a, W% u' X& Z( m4 x- A
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
6 n! C w3 l- B; ^2 D$ Q/ L: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
; ]+ l; u$ M* n. e5 X9 a(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o0 L* P0 ?% g$ f1 B5 ~. u8 B) x
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \7 Z- N( x$ b( G/ j p( w' r9 g
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 & w) L q O+ W8 z" R
) q( ], k9 L T& t
: p+ r% A) w G+ Q5 G" A$ @7 V; |B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 2 M/ d2 {( b5 p7 c9 g
1 \. F1 g8 F5 O) ^0 H, U
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 . V* L. z+ O* n7 s( }; o
$ G+ U# d% d5 ]
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
; W, p3 L; v$ Y/ O4 K) ?9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {, ]+ b; {, S3 b, A6 O
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
6 x, a( {4 s+ Q& h2 u+ D$ n) P# X# M
4 Z4 o" W* P7 y6 _5 F0 _, Z' {G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 " i/ P5 L( y9 U( Y
1 T* X9 E8 ]/ X Z- KG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
) N: J0 H9 ^' H( v" J, d6 @
' }- w3 r4 [) n" X: t0 y% o当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
3 Y1 ^: l# U# K6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
9 L; w# M& ~( u8 g' z* S- e" V通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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