Array
(
[fid] => 6974
[description] => 专注于币圈最新最快资讯，数字货币应用及知识普及
[password] =>
[icon] => b1/common_6974_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[1590] => 论坛公告
[1752] => 公司优惠
[1603] => 虚拟币交流
[1753] => 数字钱包
[1754] => 虚拟币存提
[1755] => 交易所
[1655] => 虚拟币资讯
[1756] => 银行卡
[1757] => 第三方支付
[1760] => 币圈大佬
[1758] => 科技前沿
[1759] => 天策嗨聊
[1661] => 入驻合作
)
[icons] => Array
(
[1590] =>
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] =>
[1661] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[1590] => 1
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] => 1
[1661] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 虚拟币讨论大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 3
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 29156
[posts] => 475787
[todayposts] => 13
[yesterdayposts] => 87
[rank] => 2
[oldrank] => 2
[lastpost] => 2793172 加密货币投资者需要了解的洗售规则（转） 1767051619 22301
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 21
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
[复制链接]
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 分钟
本月在线: 分钟
|
|
|
在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 / G. P: K P0 y$ _' m) p8 c
余勋也不例外、 ( ]( d) A7 m- Q6 t
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
' J/ `4 x& Z) ^- p& }8 ]是保经济的重要决策！ - _( f C# U9 M& H* v% \
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
9 J% w$ N: l4 Q0 j5 v低点26700-32400、 Z. |, n l% x+ I
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 0 T, M* j8 L% E) B: y' ~- p
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 % s" a1 \) e% B' Q
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 / j7 d0 h& N4 I' Q! }! X1 h+ a8 o4 n: G
涨幅就已回撤过半！
( v1 M; y& I: J7 s3 G' _3 }! ^所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
: d# q& C# H9 H) `) {不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 : o; R* l4 n# I5 U3 |. W
其次、 / ]/ v. k! f) [, |9 i6 m# r
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
9 O9 `* u9 n( H) a4 u6 T: Y4 L每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 % v4 u, `: k5 `$ ~( F ~. h3 O
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 . u, {: ~' [ q; q& y+ C/ H
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 - w3 a' Y N, z1 o; {; k- [
但回到币圈、
9 z7 {- N5 C0 E2 k' u/ y4 o9 C- y去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 $ F: B8 h2 U5 B. W \9 b
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
7 ~0 G) v4 f6 V; X: D7 X而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 3 \1 Q" d7 `/ F
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 % w ?5 y5 m6 ~6 M. I% N
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
4 W9 a4 g" w' R3 E" U5 E对当前的底部、影响有限。
& L' n# s7 ^ y' d最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 6 S& E; _8 f' p" S6 o: o
所以27000、即是
, B/ S: }+ B; [1 I5 `去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） ' r& b2 X. n6 k3 C" _% a) e5 m* V" d, @
同时还是去年放水初期低点、 1 E4 Q2 G3 y0 j5 H6 }6 w
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
" R; _$ _" H8 J% ^ ?& L由此得出的结论是、
0 r- q) m% ?- J: p' R6 M加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 7 r! y$ R R9 ~. ]" ]
点位不会出现太大偏离。 . i* O, J* W1 l2 N- K5 n$ p; n
综合以上、
. R5 O0 L" ^; i& u美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 , s0 I/ K% g+ W6 C
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 ' A) _" C! W) {# C9 A% c
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 9 _8 a; D: j/ m) x! A- r
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 j& J0 B# [9 o: j
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
& r6 u& q6 ~- r4 N% z2 d$ L U即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
2 f8 g- q5 [0 d美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
4 t. O% Q/ k# z- R2 {" X夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 4 T+ [; g. d. J4 O! {2 Y( |. ?
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
7 i& r: ^, @1 ^! [+ ~逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 # L: v! }( W2 g* w* d% B( C0 Q6 L
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 e2 |# T4 {4 Q( g9 j
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
( \$ {+ E( Q4 ^" z: ~( D5 n ^得不偿失。
4 j& ~7 w# Q" _3 I来源：金色财经 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
