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[lastpost] => 2643596 减半后比特币价格会上涨还是下跌?伯恩斯坦分析师宣称...(转) 1713579261 如梦的生活
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比特币期货一年来首次出现现货溢价 9 @0 G/ w8 a5 Z. p& o; q7 {. L
在期货合约交易低于现货市场价格后,规避风险的 BTC 衍生品交易者认输。
0 _" O- E( B$ c5 |& g. @ 比特币(BTC)的月至今图表非常悲观,周末看到的低于18,000美元的水平是自2020年12月以来的最低价格。多头目前的希望取决于将 20,000 美元转为支撑位,但衍生品指标显示完全不同的情况,专业交易员仍极度怀疑。
! G$ C% m/ i: c( L 比特币期货一年来首次出现现货溢价
# Q) o( w L- Z* i/ q 值得注意的是,标普500指数在6月份下跌了11%,甚至像 Netflix、PayPal 和 Caesars Entertainment 等价值数十亿美元的公司也分别修正了 71%、61% 和 57% 的跌幅。
( U0 \7 d- d8 o, J0 o 美国联邦公开市场委员会于 6 月 15 日将基准利率上调 75 个基点,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示,随着货币当局继续努力遏制通胀,可能会采取更激进的紧缩政策。然而,投资者和分析师担心此举会增加衰退风险。根据美国银行 6 月 17 日发给客户的通知: ( \% d5 i0 \& R9 @3 O) c
“我们对美联储的最担心已经得到证实:他们远远落后于曲线,现在正在玩一场危险的追赶游戏。”
$ q: B! [* |. F% z( @9 e 此外,根据全球投资银行摩根大通的分析师的说法,加密货币中创纪录的总稳定币市场份额“表明加密货币市场将出现超卖状况,并将大幅上涨。”据分析师称,稳定币在总加密货币市值中的较低比例与有限的加密潜力有关。 . n2 o, P! S8 R$ `7 T
目前,由于稳定币最终可能流入比特币和其他加密货币,加密货币投资者面临着对经济衰退的担忧和对 20,000 美元支撑位增强的乐观情绪之间的混合情绪。出于这个原因,对衍生品数据的分析对于了解投资者是否对经济低迷的更高可能性进行了定价非常有价值。 - N# ?8 Q- o9 [- B% y) G
比特币期货溢价一年来首次转负
) L5 G1 f" Y+ x! u7 n+ Z 由于与现货市场的价格差异,散户交易者通常会避开季度期货,但它们是专业交易者的首选工具,因为它们避免了合约资金费率的永久波动。
" W- g# t% Y, U4 U 这些固定月份合约的交易价格通常比现货市场略高,因为投资者需要更多资金来保留结算。这种情况并非加密市场独有。因此,在健康的市场中,期货应该以 5% 到 12% 的年化溢价交易。
* V& w9 z. V7 G; T/ [1 N0 g7 ] 比特币 3 个月期货的年化溢价
9 T4 a9 p2 l! u9 p& T 比特币的期货溢价未能突破 5% 的中性门槛,而比特币价格在 6 月 11 日之前一直坚守在 29,000 美元的支撑位。每当该指标减弱或变为负数时,这就是一个令人担忧的看跌红色信号,这种情况被称为现货溢价。 ( f) ? N6 `2 i$ F
为了排除期货工具特有的外部性,交易者还必须分析比特币期权市场。例如,25% 的 delta skew 表明当比特币做市商和套利者在上行或下行保护方面收费过高。 2 k* u% n ]3 ]! ]1 f5 J4 R- ~/ v
在看涨的市场中,期权投资者认为价格上涨的可能性更高,导致skew指标跌至 -12% 以下。另一方面,市场的普遍恐慌会导致 12% 或更高的正skew。 / F9 ?1 u. A( S0 Y' @% b) g' K
比特币 30 天期权 25% delta skew
7 W( p- N, p3 R3 ? 30 天的 delta skew在 6 月 18 日达到 36% 的峰值,这是有史以来的最高记录,也是极度看跌市场的典型表现。显然,自 17,580 美元触底以来,比特币价格上涨了 18%,这足以让衍生品交易员恢复一些信心。虽然 25% 的skew指标仍然不利于反映下行风险,但至少它不再处于反映极端避险情绪的水平。 9 u# ^6 t: Z1 E7 N( a
预计未来将遭受“最大损失”
/ ?3 c1 `; o7 ]& | 一些指标表明,比特币可能已在 6 月 18 日触底,尤其是在 20,000 美元的支撑位增强后。另一方面,市场分析师Mike Alfred明确表示,在他看来,“比特币对大型玩家的清算还没有结束。他们将把它降低到一个对像Celsius这样曝光过度的玩家造成最大伤害的水平。”
% n* B9 Q# s$ c3 V& c 在交易者更好地了解 Terra 生态系统内爆带来的传染风险、Celsius 可能的破产以及三箭资本面临的流动性问题之前,比特币价格再次崩盘的可能性很高。
! {" z1 c( a, j来源:金色财经 |
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