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小分3种情况:
; U! `/ Y# X% A, O6 J3 u
! U7 c4 }/ D5 r' V1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。6 }0 U! F! P3 A. @
$ W( K: M$ d- f! C" [' V4 W
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。; w" g8 x6 W! F7 y: u% w
. d7 F T, u8 m, d3 ]3 l
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。7 ~" ~* z: v' K3 K8 y" ~, a6 [
0 O. y9 u1 J U
2张牌8或9点的情况有:* o! G8 d* C6 Z$ i+ w: A
* d& i2 J7 p) o8 h; f& }! C- w1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10+ G& J+ P* B5 p5 e+ C& O$ v) {
. \7 F# @! r4 S3 m9 ]1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415, k. z0 `+ w- E& Y3 `
' @* z. W, n# y) q1 e" R! K- g5 v4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415) H" P0 w! e$ `# u8 q* c- f
Q$ H& |' n0 N3 J8 h' T2 @8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
8 y6 |7 Q, C% G% l' }9 Z- N
/ n' b* ]0 z$ ?2 H, @由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。5 h0 ?% O7 H+ I! w" K+ x B& E
! P! v& g. e# `4 _" |2 _4 U
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
# l: u2 Q" L U$ X9 \- O& P- B6 s" ?0 `' M1 E+ Q) k
那么我们可以得出! w! T. R( X3 C8 x0 o
3 l+ [: N( o; z
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662+ o: t9 d$ k1 l
, P3 F* {; `3 ?$ s8 K. a: K' v; q3 h2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
5 a' @. d7 W3 f5 M6 T1 l* v
9 {3 }# n$ q, }$ E7 }$ u3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.0358854911 O, [3 _! ]+ u2 T" q" b F
- `. r# I' n8 Y
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.3788693233 }) l- h P! m2 P
& @# B8 p0 K H/ _6 b9 E% v" Z百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
: m9 {, r. }9 \4 e; [& K. T2 ~ |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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