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加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为3 V: L+ x% _) ~
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
1 o2 T9 {- u) M6 Y' Q9 x+ Z衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。1 k7 l1 U7 o1 O" P" A, p
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0) D% r. s7 e( A
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。8 e! G! U$ j0 s/ ?9 A8 z( U% e( c2 h
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
% y. O: q- K# w" T6 h2024年4月第四次减半
7 w9 x# r. h9 B: |机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF1 x; S* D3 ?2 W; A" Z" k0 H5 i7 f
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)! z" d' E0 c2 y8 C
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
( v4 [0 @, g. G* x二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
- N; C. w+ O% s/ dfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。* G) C( ? g) V0 e+ K
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
4 ?' g) W2 {; }; ~% k, Q0 y诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
/ ~9 Y6 A) f' @ U# T/ f( E三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
h, l: {7 \3 I" M除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
* ^1 M# p7 |/ V' Y金融(TradFi)产品。
* l4 g( S" Z7 h3 T如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨% V. x. m, @* A m
链桥」的项目。, q% j# P. x$ B9 c' A
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉 G, T X+ B ~
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
: j# p: U$ o+ o% w等。
% P3 k' W8 ~5 G8 D: w( s0 N- v$ nPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用8 U# e: Y6 W' S: s# y
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。 r O2 s1 w! Q4 X' w8 o9 L
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN& c2 @3 G8 ^1 v# q7 O; f
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
" U) f- v7 r) u# M% I1 ?/ G数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。; l1 {% @6 P/ w! s
Pantera点名了几个项目：
, W# l" `+ n/ jHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图. j. }; n, S( J8 M
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
% v9 p9 V6 p4 A6 XModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品 s' F$ d6 e9 ~
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划0 w7 e3 d9 |1 I6 l
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
) V6 q: z( h: f7 G) y4 ]! g3 [7 n六、小型公链需专注特定应用3 P5 E# H, R6 g; p- c8 X3 h
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚2 z& I; E9 A8 t4 C+ {" D7 Z) V h
至能直接与L2竞争。
" Y1 r4 p* ]( M* w/ s1 D也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。5 f: |; }3 I) H/ `3 h) |1 t
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
& E" N, n& g( c. X9 y成为「应用链」。
( L2 w2 {7 }9 M+ Q( y事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。, u) u. R! _. `4 L
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