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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘2 }  x! W5 C* Z( {$ b
     5 I7 j  E+ H1 e$ P/ J$ \  D
     平手中水,主队有利
) n3 ]! n+ M" n. h/ s: A$ @0 u; G3 s     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。; ~5 n" P) i3 ~4 z9 m( A
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
8 M. i- r) ]  t/ K# K* w     英超主队. x+ E8 o) D8 l* R' l$ I* l
     胜:13场 48%
$ x# I, U: F' r+ J' B* ]     平:5场 17%
  N) X% b! {3 z8 A" M1 e& n     负:9场 35%
  Z6 Z% k" I" e6 n! \5 g     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。3 t8 m% }7 z& S& j
     
0 p4 H! D9 W& R     一、初盘阶段
' \2 z* @- X% x0 M% M8 K0 r8 @* H     具体到水位如下:
' D5 s& E7 J/ {8 V) q     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
6 H5 m8 N2 Z. B$ g5 J     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负% z& v6 K4 M& N) r' P: ^
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负. @% Q1 G2 F) H# H  a$ `- Y
     
  V, k0 q( n* Y6 y! W     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
: [5 h& ]' y8 [2 c; Z8 Z     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。4 P3 Q/ S! V' N  z5 e
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
4 J' R% q) E/ Q4 Q5 i9 G     8 k7 ~) K, g) A" e- I
     二、临场阶段
' i+ ^; B9 f; ]; |     " X. w7 a, p3 I! S: T/ n3 j1 F
     具体到变盘和水位如下:7 E) M/ @( l% n" J4 B3 ~8 L
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
: g, l4 i) e0 z0 I     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负: l" w- I) i2 x
       s/ N9 M. s0 d, G1 h/ D, v
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。( Y4 t/ C$ o% A! X! J6 M5 Q
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
/ k+ S+ O) v8 m2 C     
; o& k2 c# b- O2 _5 j" j) B% l$ q     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
" n; A& z6 ?8 Z" ]: g     初盘:0.82平手1.04
* `' }% b; ]4 A! M; n/ G     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.854 ?$ o6 E- x. M  O: s
     
, ]+ ^$ Y1 z$ v/ i% W     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆: D) k+ i( a  U
     初盘:0.76平手1.106 j/ }1 A8 S$ u3 e* o- b6 Y! \. G0 `
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91/ g/ G4 z! T- }, T) e9 I  |# H
     / V( `2 H: ~8 ]; ~) s$ \
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技3 r. {1 o* y! _' L8 G  D4 r( \- ?
     初盘:0.82平手1.04$ z6 Z1 i* Z9 F% g
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
' l* @* U. @8 {$ F  g     
; Y  a  _* }3 n' v+ f/ q" T     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
# o* I/ Z9 G! k& a1 [     初盘:0.88平手0.98# [. `  n* |' |2 a: W
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
) v. v8 i/ M* R0 ^     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。5 m, p- S: h9 T4 F1 Z; O& K
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。! a0 \' G% s. s
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。( W( u3 U  d" d8 n( E
     4 p+ l8 U& B) H; k
     三、球队表现! p7 M/ L4 i0 m# b& b8 M9 H& k
     9 q7 A+ @, ~6 b6 P
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
/ Y5 r/ @$ b9 R0 C& I     * J  F/ \9 J7 q& d! y  J( ^
     四、投注要点
* @$ {& g; L  d/ s3 G  j     要点1:平手中水、主多不败2 P5 w6 @+ |0 S0 U/ h
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头  K, \- w: |9 v
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
+ X- E1 V" [. j; x9 k2 O# y, E     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
) H8 q4 p! S; V% d/ }4 t8 t' H     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
; b! ^/ O! C) P) h9 Q/ _     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大7 q7 S, q, B# {, {/ n5 J
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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