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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。 I- B* Z* z' R2 o G
2 e. x, ?9 m& | E3 Q9 J7 E. [ 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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. W! f* Q2 [# }& [* n, }! v* C2 Q 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续) @% G( }2 T) a8 `9 T3 Z- u
7 I+ K1 L, _. \! r6 X7 u: q; Y( ~2 | Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。7 D3 Z+ Q4 O3 t1 H; W+ Y4 Y
' n- X/ P, Z1 p, t2 d& y 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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5 u0 D6 \$ I! N% o 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。; _! `3 ?% }0 ]2 Q0 C
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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4 t# @* K( S; {4 Y+ E. ] 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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L( |0 Z3 q6 F价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。# p% n, ?6 s0 @/ O( ]
; {" H, n# P M. h0 d “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。. L* i1 q% C& c
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在0 G+ n9 T- P2 D3 ]
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。. Y. z- H H% n, ^
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势. u( y9 v" z: r" H3 g* I9 D
4 @1 n' }/ t+ v# g' V2 V 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。0 d& b# e; E' ^( b2 G
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。2 a, h" A& D1 Z* O) X2 H$ [: ]" V
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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: N8 X& @2 z' M8 b市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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