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BCA Research表示，投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑，而这可能对比特币构成利好。' |! l: k( g: Y, Z( J( ?# x
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该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出，目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产，并在股票投资中降低对美国, @- A* t/ _6 T+ ?# G+ z F
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市场的权重。原因在于，海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产，担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。" Y( I% f& R* Z6 [! I
{" M2 X9 b7 O- w6 Y7 f 与此同时，BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围，并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月，BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而5 N: o$ P. m# E T9 R* o
# ]6 y' [: H# K1 x2 p9 M% v: v$ I“短期看空”比特币。0 r$ ~# \' t8 j8 _) `6 A) b f. M
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“在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下，比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道，“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来，活跃交易的比特币在整体已
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- k2 e, C# O/ U6 h8 p* H; U3 r实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”
5 Y& E! w; m1 b4 R+ J" j# ]
( I0 Z/ V' U; r5 a8 Y4 U 报告还指出，比特币作为“数字黄金”，正越来越像实物黄金那样表现，在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。3 r1 }$ X4 m+ C/ x
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根据Coin Metrics的数据，自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期，现货黄金上涨了8%，- I' z7 P) _/ ]
) l9 n$ L, g( C8 ]: Y7 R而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。
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BCA在报告中进一步指出：“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺，但关税政策的模糊性，已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外，“激烈的+ t: y1 X a! K: Z2 u
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利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”. P/ d# d2 I3 g1 J) v% c5 r
' L$ u% c- k# z! F! P5 q& U4 J, i “尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛，但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号，才能恢复投资。”报告写道，“若无法及时提供清晰政策，
- `& {" E ~: m- x2 V g$ ~2 z1 m4 ]4 X& u# s9 X) Z
将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”
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