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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。! j9 A5 n" A0 ^; U
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
9 F: E1 z3 B0 g% K$ V. \2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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/ A0 V9 b/ L! U/ E [9 k来源：Alphractal8 i4 N, F0 a- ~. \/ T
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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% m$ P$ c. ]& X# c5 X+ W. [尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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8 w/ |1 J0 S- F# W* G5 q8 O事情变得有趣了5 ?% U2 v I% x* T) i
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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; b3 c1 z- `2 \1 P" A* \+ O6 @来源：X* x0 @0 @: }* v8 B
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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& f+ ]- ]( s w- t+ I- OBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。6 M3 a+ `; [6 T b( {* ?: S& w
8 v R" M$ Z, D7 o5 y! K; \正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。/ H7 d5 w" [9 @( W" n9 q$ v: }1 V
+ F! b' K+ g# h N3 e# K空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力6 U9 h- U: Q+ S, u4 A0 G* n
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView+ X* {7 N4 g ?& E5 \( D6 I$ t4 `
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。 A5 \7 l, j# U. D
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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