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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。* a0 C) W& I! m- M! M6 ]
2 T9 ~7 b$ M' Q: d) Z! C但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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0 Q& p# m2 v; {9 Q+ V$ A4 I# |Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？9 L' T. W; G! L
% P8 {' F6 w% V4 g4 u. L开局艰难，但历史看好牛市4 g C6 U1 y) L6 }) E
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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- s. u$ l) C' |1 d: Q3 k来源：Alphractal; A9 k0 s7 k0 |4 j) o) j
7 X6 z [! \6 U: E1 Q2 t2 G15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。. j8 d+ N8 T2 Z5 u
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。4 N L" I9 v5 X- ?
' t( X" k) \; M8 H* F3 d事情变得有趣了
% j* ^8 E! {! V' \BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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2 ~9 h) c) Y2 [来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。' n. v2 O7 A; u) I! w6 S5 P6 V
2 N& j6 l/ Q2 A) r6 OBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。 I$ G& i4 w2 R9 q/ B
! {% Y' I4 W! d随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。1 @! W A0 t' u. I" f
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
$ u- e1 g* ?( A ?经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。5 q( S9 Z: P/ {2 S$ n
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来源：TradingView: n; k4 `. e: Y# h% j; R# u
; x, i1 Q: I7 k1 e+ h$ A% F# t3 C日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。" s: g4 v& n4 x
3 k: M, U4 ~+ G5 L然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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7 i9 q) e9 }" m7 E* h/ a突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。. q. n& c$ v6 ?
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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